How’s the stock market?

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,265
19,093
113
Jacksonville Beach
Buffett says the market will be flat for another year and no one knows more about the stock market than Jimmy Buffett.
Put me generally in the grapedrink camp. By and large the generalist advice is start putting your money in an S&P 500 Index fund in your 20s, then turn around 20-40 years later and be glad you did. I might not be buying anything new right now but I'm not spending my surplus earnings on hookers and blow either.

And Romanian chicks bro. Romanian chicks.
I've heard good things about Romanian and Bulgarian womenfolks but I am not sure they are on a par with Ukraine/Russia. You think?
 
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Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
68,235
22,988
113
62
Vagina Point
I started putting it away late.

Had I started earlier, I would really be something.

But the lure of sexy latin hookers and blow to a young man hungry for carnal pleasure is powerful.
 
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grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
25,938
14,725
113
A Beach
You keep going back to examples where the Fed came in a saved the day with fiscal stimulus.
That is why we simply rode it out.
Sorry I don't have any examples for me personally as a working age adult in the non-Fed era. All I can do is look back at 100 years of history :roflmao:
 
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Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,768
1,988
113
South coast OR
This market condition will be like the last 2 years of Obama admin (Nov 2014-Nov 2016) at best.

Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq pretty much flat those 2 years with a couple corrections between.

This is best case scenario, a stagnant market. Could be a drift downward, with fits and starts upward, only to get fresh debbie downer news to bring back to flat. This coming recession could be the worse one we've seen in decades. Maybe not terrible, but a slow slogging climb to get out of it a year or 2 from now, at best.

The Biden admin and this Fed are all re-active, and too pussed out to be pro-active dealing with it. That's what keeps recessions around for much longer than necessary.
 
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sussle

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Oct 11, 2009
8,390
7,766
113
This market condition will be like the last 2 years of Obama admin (Nov 2014-Nov 2016) at best.

Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq pretty much flat those 2 years with a couple corrections between.

This is best case scenario, a stagnant market. Could be a drift downward, with fits and starts upward, only to get fresh debbie downer news to bring back to flat. This coming recession could be the worse one we've seen in decades. Maybe not terrible, but a slow slogging climb to get out of it a year or 2 from now, at best.

The Biden admin and this Fed are all re-active, and too pussed out to be pro-active dealing with it. That's what keeps recessions around for much longer than necessary.
that's about what i'm expecting - a couple years of meh. and i'm good with that - live frugally, spend wisely, invest conservatively etc etc. there's some other variables here (Ukraine!) but i expect them to be sorted out one way or the other :cheers:
 

Chocki

Phil Edwards status
Feb 18, 2007
6,354
6,736
113
Planet Earth
Put me generally in the grapedrink camp. By and large the generalist advice is start putting your money in an S&P 500 Index fund in your 20s, then turn around 20-40 years later and be glad you did. I might not be buying anything new right now but I'm not spending my surplus earnings on hookers and blow either.



I've heard good things about Romanian and Bulgarian womenfolks but I am not sure they are on a par with Ukraine/Russia. You think?
Bogle, Stein, myself when asked, Jimmy/Warren Buffett might too think indexes particularly the SP are dank. You just got to be able to stay the course and not invest anything you can’t leave there aka don’t invest emergency money

No clue about Bulgarian girls bro and with EU chicks in general be afraid be very afraid of their wiles.
 

PJ

Gerry Lopez status
Jan 27, 2002
1,022
733
113
Shrub Oak,N.Y.,USA
I'm reading a new book that just came out "The Price of Time". It's a history of interest and how it has worked since the ancients. It's a great book so far - I'm only 25% through it so far but here's a few highlights: The interest on ancient shipping loans was 40% but you lost your investment if the ship was lost. 6% seems to be the "Natural" rate of interest since at least the 1600's and seems to be a rate at which investors make a decent return and don't have to resort to investing in risky/dumb ventures. The government in England pushed rates down to 2% at least as early as the 1600's to stimulate the economy. At the time that low rate was said to beggar widows and orphans who live off of interest and to raise the price of land which was good for landowners. Governments lowering the rate down around 2 to 3 1/2% has been done a lot - it's nothing new at all except this time its probably the longest.

In the 1800's a saying in England was "John Bull can stand a lot of things, but he can't stand 2%". People will not stand for only 2% on their money. They will find something else which pays more at a greater and greater risk because they just can't tolerate 2%.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
25,938
14,725
113
A Beach
I'm reading a new book that just came out "The Price of Time". It's a history of interest and how it has worked since the ancients. It's a great book so far - I'm only 25% through it so far but here's a few highlights: The interest on ancient shipping loans was 40% but you lost your investment if the ship was lost. 6% seems to be the "Natural" rate of interest since at least the 1600's and seems to be a rate at which investors make a decent return and don't have to resort to investing in risky/dumb ventures. The government in England pushed rates down to 2% at least as early as the 1600's to stimulate the economy. At the time that low rate was said to beggar widows and orphans who live off of interest and to raise the price of land which was good for landowners. Governments lowering the rate down around 2 to 3 1/2% has been done a lot - it's nothing new at all except this time its probably the longest.

In the 1800's a saying in England was "John Bull can stand a lot of things, but he can't stand 2%". People will not stand for only 2% on their money. They will find something else which pays more at a greater and greater risk because they just can't tolerate 2%.
Interesting stuff. Talking to some Euro colleagues, their rates were even lower than what ours were in the pit of the pandemic. However they might have negative savings rates, so I guess it evens out :unsure:
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,210
17,642
113
Petak Island
casa will always be in bear market territory. the rest of us are likely seeing significant gains in our portfolio over the last few weeks.
Significant gainz - DONE!

Reality setting in.

Scalpel set, pain not yet.:roflmao:We're just getting started.



The erBB is going to be hit hard - a lot of people in their late 40s - 50s - a decade of sideways trading isn't good for retirement. All of us should expect to work a decade longer than planned. Sucks.

Gonna be real interesting to see what happens in my industry. Nothing good will come from this.
 
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grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
25,938
14,725
113
A Beach
The erBB is going to be hit hard - a lot of people in their late 40s - 50s - a decade of sideways trading isn't good for retirement. All of us should expect to work a decade longer than planned. Sucks.
:roflmao:
You have no clue what you are talking about. it’s actually the best thing for the most time tested strategy that often outperforms professional traders- plain old set it and forget it vanilla index funds. I’d rather DCA through 5-10 years of doldrums than a 5-10 year bull market. I will get more growth and returns long term out of the stocks I purchased during the down years.
 

sdsrfr

Phil Edwards status
Jul 13, 2020
5,857
11,266
113
San Diego
Gonna be real interesting to see what happens in my industry. Nothing good will come from this.
my wife works in the medical devices field. says leadership‘s existential fear is dr and nurses shortages in hospitals leading to lack of growth in devices sold.

so, if I read the crystal ball correctly, you will be the next waiters of the post-pandemic world. overworked, stagnant wage growth, and with no relief in sight.
 

sussle

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Oct 11, 2009
8,390
7,766
113
Significant gainz - DONE!

Reality setting in.

Scalpel set, pain not yet.:roflmao:We're just getting started.



The erBB is going to be hit hard - a lot of people in their late 40s - 50s - a decade of sideways trading isn't good for retirement. All of us should expect to work a decade longer than planned. Sucks.
Some of us are prepared for whatever. Have patience, grasshopper - remember the three rules.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,210
17,642
113
Petak Island
my wife works in the medical devices field. says leadership‘s existential fear is dr and nurses shortages in hospitals leading to lack of growth in devices sold.

so, if I read the crystal ball correctly, you will be the next waiters of the post-pandemic world. overworked, stagnant wage growth, and with no relief in sight.
I think this nails it.

I'm seriously considering an exit.

The expectations are simply becoming too high. Nearly every day we are hit with another quality control measure or policy change that serves no real purpose. It's gotten to the point where they're impossible to keep track of - not to mention constantly changing.

I have a photographic memory so I have knack for remembering policies - coworkers would always come to me for reference - now they ask me and I often tell them "I have no fvcking clue" because the policy has changed 3 times over the past 2 years.

This is happening in a lot of industries and it's driving burnout - accountability is constantly demanded but the resources are not there for a human being to do everything that is being demanded of them. Better pay does not fix this.

How does this end?

My only hope is that a lot of these excess bureaucratic employees that drive this crap are purged during the financial crisis while we at least maintain the current resources we have. (This will not happen, of course.)
 
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