How’s the stock market?

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,726
8,723
113
The broader point is that plenty of people can weather the storm just fine. If anything, consistently DCA'ing during the tougher years will only strengthen their portfolio down the line.
I hope you're right.
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sussle

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Oct 11, 2009
8,414
7,810
113
No, we already know you don’t understand how this works.
i know - thank goodness you're here to clear it all up for me. but i guess we do have to have this conversation again: you're doing fine. your father is doing fine. probably everyone you know is doing fine. i'm doing fine. all my neighbors and friends, as far as i can tell, are good. and as far as i can tell, everyone here is good. we can all live with economic cycles because relatively speaking, life is very good. don't know how old you are - and i'm really not asking - but you seem so easily rattled.
Looks like retired Boomers may be coming back off the bench if this keeps up. I suppose this is good because they're the only ones that know how to do anything. It pains me to say this as Gen X haha.
yeah, in a pig's eye :trout:
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,575
18,042
113
Petak Island
The broader point is that plenty of people can weather the storm just fine. If anything, consistently DCA'ing during the tougher years will only strengthen their portfolio down the line.
You can work out the numbers. Plenty people do worse long-term DCAing.

Everything you say treats the economy and policy as if it’s something static.

That’s not reality.
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,575
18,042
113
Petak Island
i know - thank goodness you're here to clear it all up for me. but i guess we do have to have this conversation again: you're doing fine. your father is doing fine. probably everyone you know is doing fine. i'm doing fine. all my neighbors and friends, as far as i can tell, are good. and as far as i can tell, everyone here is good. we can all live with economic cycles because relatively speaking, life is very good. don't know how old you are - and i'm really not asking - but you seem so easily rattled.
You seem to live in a bubble.

Reality check - the vast majority of people your age have a few pennies in the bank and aren’t daytrading or shitposting on the erBB.


thank you - he doesn't get that.
Under certain circumstances he’s right.

Otherwise he’s just whistling through the graveyard.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
26,137
14,928
113
A Beach
You can work out the numbers. Plenty people do worse long-term DCAing.
Compared to what :unsure: :roflmao: If they are DCAing into crap funds, sure. Garbage in, garbage out. If they stick with the basics, like the SP500, there is a 100% success rate for every 20 year span for the last century.

Everything you say treats the economy and policy as if it’s something static.

That’s not reality.
Of course . .. . The world is constantly changing. If the SP500 can survive 2 world wars, 70s gas crisis, 9/11, dotcom 1.0 bust, subprime mortgage crisis, and COVID, then that gives me a decent amount of faith that I will be fine if I stick to the basics.
 
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Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,502
4,428
113
Damn, I thought I was gonna reel in a mighty fine minxy minx today, but I got slammed in the ass by a shemale! Bloody red all over!

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sussle

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Oct 11, 2009
8,414
7,810
113
You seem to live in a bubble.

Reality check - the vast majority of people your age have a few pennies in the bank and aren’t daytrading or shitposting on the erBB.
not true, not in this country. most Americans are doing ok. and i don't daytrade, fwiw.

 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,575
18,042
113
Petak Island
Compared to what :unsure: :roflmao: If they are DCAing into crap funds, sure. Garbage in, garbage out. If they stick with the basics, like the SP500, there is a 100% success rate for every 20 year span for the last century.


Of course . .. . The world is constantly changing. If the SP500 can survive 2 world wars, 70s gas crisis, 9/11, dotcom 1.0 bust, subprime mortgage crisis, and COVID, then that gives me a decent amount of faith that I will be fine if I stick to the basics.
Define 100% success rate.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,575
18,042
113
Petak Island
Everyone who consistently DCA’d and let it ride for at least 20 years all made more money compared to the prevailing savings account interest rate. Those are pretty good odds.
As I said - you think of everything in the perspective of the last 20 or so years where the Fed pursued apolicy of easy money and economic stimulus.

The economy you think is normal is a junkie economy and the Fed is supplying the heroin.

This is now going to have to come to an end.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
26,137
14,928
113
A Beach
As I said - you think of everything in the perspective of the last 20 or so years where the Fed pursued apolicy of easy money and economic stimulus.
No, I think of the SP 500 withstanding a wide variety of economic conditions and setbacks. There are always situations that could be considered unfair advantages that resulted in abnormally high growth during certain times. Post WW2 was quite unique in the position that the US had as the only industrialized nation not ravaged by war, the 90s had tech boom 1.0, 2010s had the social media boom, etc.

The economy you think is normal is a junkie economy and the Fed is supplying the heroin.

This is now going to have to come to an end.
Everything is cyclical. I don't doubt that it could and likely will get ugly. When prices go down smart money stays in the game.

2008/9/10 was pretty rough too. Those who DCA'd and bought real estate at that time are doing pretty well now.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,575
18,042
113
Petak Island
No, I think of the SP 500 withstanding a wide variety of economic conditions and setbacks. There are always situations that could be considered unfair advantages that resulted in abnormally high growth during certain times. Post WW2 was quite unique in the position that the US had as the only industrialized nation not ravaged by war, the 90s had tech boom 1.0, 2010s had the social media boom, etc.


Everything is cyclical. I don't doubt that it could and likely will get ugly. When prices go down smart money stays in the game.

2008/9/10 was pretty rough too. Those who DCA'd and bought real estate at that time are doing pretty well now.
The difference between the and now is the Fed came in with stimulus and QE.

They can’t do that for this downturn - it would be economic suicide.