How’s the stock market?

PeterDj

Legend (inyourownmind)
Jul 11, 2018
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When you look at the SPY trend from 2010-2019 pre pandemic and then look at the current down trend since january, you can get a rough projection as to when the market correction will end. My guess is somewhere between Aug 22 and Jan 23. The question is where to put your investments until then. Everything looks horrible. It's all about slowing the bleeding.
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
3,585
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When you look at the SPY trend from 2010-2019 pre pandemic and then look at the current down trend since january, you can get a rough projection as to when the market correction will end. My guess is somewhere between Aug 22 and Jan 23. The question is where to put your investments until then. Everything looks horrible. It's all about slowing the bleeding.
OIL! Buy SLB, Valaris or something like that.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,957
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OIL! Buy SLB, Valaris or something like that.
I think oil is risky at this point. Nice to be in if you bought towards the end of 2021 but price-related demand is going to take a hit soon - the magic number I'm hearing seems to be $7.00/gallon here in CA.

Factor in the latest economic numbers of the past weeks and days and pretty clear demand will be taking a hit related to dwindling demand for goods and services as well, then further as the economy worsens.

Summer travel is going to help sustain price to decent degree, people who already made vacation plans months ago are going to have to bite the bullet and pay out the ass.

But long? Absolutely>>>

Recession is going to see less capital flowing towards renewables projects and interest rates are going to make these projects more difficult. It's actually already happening.

Meanwhile the west has decided they won't be using Russian oil. This will come at the expense of the citizenry, and will be long term - Outraged millenials sleep better at night knowing we only do business with "nice" people and AmazonChina. (Saudis fit the "nice" category too - don't want your friends thinking you're Islamophobic)

Further, anti-oil regulations in the USA/1st world and activist investors on the boards of oil companies are going to ensure would-be capital won't touch anything involving the expansion of fossil fuels extraction and exploration with a 10 foot pole.

Also, the Biden admin just increased the government's % share of profits from drilling leases a few months back. This will further discourage drilling.

What that means for us is oil prices are going to be on an upward trend for the long haul. Fools think everyone is going to be driving an EV... consider that on hold for the long term.

The world runs on oil, and the long term political agenda is to make oil more and more difficult to come by despite the fact it will continue to be absolutely essential.

Oil is not going anywhere. It's just going to get more expensive because politicians will ensure supply is restricted.
 
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Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
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1652969090337.png

Thank you for the market update Mr. Casa_Buffet :cheers:

But please revise your language, we are sensitive investars here!
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
21,070
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Your retirement is on hold indefinitely.

Yes I'm sure the shareholder class is totally going to be happy to jack off for a decade.

We'll "Liberate" North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela, for starters (and the defense contractor pumps) ages before this'll happen.

Decades are things stoic people like the Japanese lose.
 
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Subway

Administrator
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Dec 31, 2008
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Or I could pay a lower price for the next decade as opposed to the previous. I don’t see this as a bad thing with a long term outlook.
Yeah I said it here a month ago- had a decent commission check plus regular paycheck all hitting today as a matter of fact, so I jacked my 401 contribution to 20%. So in a single day I probably contributed nearly half of my annual max, literally a day after the market took its biggest dump in ages. It’s may still go lower, but, I’m happy to sink several grand in a single day into index funds while there’s blood in the markets. Then again im only 43 and have no kids
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,506
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Sure. And the only way to fight inflation is with some kind of investment strategy.
In that case you need a better one that Warren Buffet's given that headline inflation is running closer to 20%. If only you'd bought the dip:
1653075416935.png

On "wheat for rubles" news. How many of you guys foresaw the rise of the ruble and won big? Not me.
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
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On "wheat for rubles" news. How many of you guys foresaw the rise of the ruble and won big? Not me.
I did - the rise part was a no-brainer - but I didn't play it right.

Instead I was trying to find workarounds to buy Russian energy stonks, which was a total dead end.

Bottom line - to think that the world's 3rd largest energy producer (not to mention the main supplier of the much of the fabric that holds Europe together) would become worthless for more than a very short period of time would be complete foolishness.

To look at at from a risk perspective buying rubles was probably the LEAST risky investment at that moment.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,957
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On the same topic - I have to wonder - prior to the whole Ukraine debacle I was under the impression Russian NG makes up about 60% of Europe's supply.

Now I keep hearing 40% repeated in the media.

So I wonder if 40% is actually the real number or it's a minimized number that was handed down when all this started to minimize the situation for political purposes and simply keeps getting repeated.
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,506
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I did - the rise part was a no-brainer - but I didn't play it right.

Instead I was trying to find workarounds to buy Russian energy stonks, which was a total dead end.

Bottom line - to think that the world's 3rd largest energy producer (not to mention the main supplier of the much of the fabric that holds Europe together) would become worthless for more than a very short period of time would be complete foolishness.

To look at at from a risk perspective buying rubles was probably the LEAST risky investment at that moment.
So I had no knowledge that the ruble would grow, you had a lot of knowledge but lacked the confidence to make the bet, and we both ended up in the same place: failing to profit off this asset. Do we see this problem generally in security analysis?
 

afoaf

Duke status
Jun 25, 2008
43,312
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Right. Even better, formulate some kind of death trip cocktail - a carefully blended mix of fine Peruvian pink flake, X, acid, oxy, fresh raspberries, and nitrous oxide, carefully blended with ground spices and fresh fruit, topped with a double marangue infused with amyl nitrate.And you get high as a kite and leave this world shortly thereafter, with a smile on your face and a sense of enormous wellbeing.
:jamon:
dude, wtf is pink flake...is that real? I had someone break some pink sh!t out

I opted for the DMT and nitrous hits instead of the pink sh!t
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
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So I had no knowledge that the ruble would grow, you had a lot of knowledge but lacked the confidence to make the bet
I didn't lack the confidence, I was just too stupid to see the easiest opportunity for the taking.:drowning:

and we both ended up in the same place: failing to profit off this asset. Do we see this problem generally in security analysis?
I don't know.

I think so, in regards to oil and NG.

I think there's way too much faith placed in renewables way too soon and the market is just starting to wake up to that.

Government net zero carbon policies are creating energy crises, and I think we're in the very early stages of that.

Global population is increasing = more energy needed.

At the same time we are placing restrictions on those products that produce energy...literally restricting the lifeblood of modern civilization.

And yet this lifeblood - fossil fuels - will continue to be necessities.

Coal is public enemy #1 but it is by far the cheapiest thing when it comes to producing energy.

I've been reading over the past few years how in the Western world nobody wants anything to do with it on an ethical basis...banks, investment groups, pension funds, etc.

Makes you wonder if long term coal is like the ruble.

When those leading us are presiding over economies that are getting choked by energy prices over the long term I bet that black rock is gonna start looking pretty appealing.

 
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Subway

Administrator
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Dec 31, 2008
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Modern nuclear power plants would make very short work of coal/gas/oil/solar/wind etc. that’s the big con. The oil and gas guys don’t want nuke power to put them out of the power business so they encourage all of the irrational and vastly out of date fear of nuclear power.

term limits for all politicians and nuclear power would solve 98% of the things we argue about on here
 
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