How’s the stock market?

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
3,865
3,369
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$600k in 40 years is going to get you a chocolate milk, and a band-aid with a smiley face.

IMHO most people in our "wealth" group, you are going to earn that inheritance as compensation for care-giving. A year in anything other than a death gulag will eat the average middle-class inheritance.

Steal Autoprax's Oxys, figure out which kid is going to let you have a tent on the property, when the quality of life goes, jam all the oxys and paddle out at Jaws.
Agree. It's a bad deal, if it wasn't the company would not offered it.
 

sussle

Phil Edwards status
Oct 11, 2009
7,023
5,862
113
fixed :ban:

my friend's grandpa had a teen-to-twenty mil fortune and a hilltop home in Marin with an incredible view of the bay. Both grandparents died in their 90s at home with round the clock in home care . . . . estate was barely a mil, post sale, by the time it was all said and done :toilet:
money well spent. probably had to resist pressure to be warehoused by other members of the family.

fwiw i have an older sister lives in France - her partner is drifting into full blown dementia/alzheimers/whatever. the level of support provided and paid for by their healthcare system - therapists, aides, healthcare workers, social service types etc, all delivered to them in-home - blows my mind. their system bends over backwards to keep them at home, unlike ours. i dread getting old in this country and may take major steps to avoid it.
 
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PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
10,556
6,745
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Media has shifted into full fear mongering mode.

It's down 11% this year, but still way up over the past 10 years. One of the main things keeping it up is what to do with money. Wall paper is out-of-fashion. We burn natural gas for heat. It depreciates rapidly in a bank account. Where else do you find arbitrage as a little guy these days?
 
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gbg

Michael Peterson status
Jan 22, 2006
3,097
2,313
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money well spent. probably had to resist pressure to be warehoused by other members of the family.

fwiw i have an older sister lives in France - her partner is drifting into full blown dementia/alzheimers/whatever. the level of support provided and paid for by their healthcare system - therapists, aides, healthcare workers, social service types etc, all delivered to them in-home - blows my mind. their system bends over backwards to keep them at home, unlike ours. i dread getting old in this country and may take major steps to avoid it.
A buddy I surf with regularly just watched his mom wither away and die and his dad is next. Both Mid 90s. He said he is not going out like that. Hes 64 and said when he can no longer surf he is going to paddle out at the Sloughs and have a breath holding contest with himself. He was very serious.
 

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,405
1,746
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South coast OR
The dayz of double digit % annual stock market increases are over for a while.

Inflation not seen since the 70's, rising interest rates and other negative economic factors not having attention paid to by the Fed and Biden admin, will give us a stagnating, near flat stock market at best.

Or a slow water torture drop, and not a waterboarding torture drop at worst.

Similar to Obama's last 2 years in office (ending Nov 2016, flat to 1-2% total increase) will be the best we can ask for, major index wise.

I mentioned the likelyhood of a stagnant stock market starting only a few months after Biden took office (back in early/mid-2021). But I didn't think it would start as a bear market instead, after going up a bit longer at first than expected in 2021.

Since year end 2021, it's been downhill since. Not seeing much that's going to reverse that trend anytime soon. Flat to maybe a slight bump off eventual bottom, at best, this year into next. Crystal ball fades to black.
 

sussle

Phil Edwards status
Oct 11, 2009
7,023
5,862
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A buddy I surf with regularly just watched his mom wither away and die and his dad is next. Both Mid 90s. He said he is not going out like that. Hes 64 and said when he can no longer surf he is going to paddle out at the Sloughs and have a breath holding contest with himself. He was very serious.
not many good options at that point but staying home is a top priority. i had a lot of retirement communities/care facilities (one morphs into the other, on your way out of this world - it goes from independent living->assisted living->nursing care->death) as clients...and my mom is in a high-end one in Annapolis, MD. and it doesn't matter how fancy or high-end or well-equipped the facility - they are all relying on the same shallow shitty labor pool so they all have the same limitations. i just can't picture checking into one of these places, so the idea of preparing for it (re: long term care insurance, annuity, whatever) is just a non-starter for me. i like your buddy's attitude but i think a handful of vicodin is a slightly more attractive option.
 
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stringcheese

Michael Peterson status
Jun 21, 2017
3,331
2,760
113
i like your buddy's attitude but i think a handful of vicodin is a slightly more attractive option.

I've been saying this forever, inert gas asphyxiation. Every since I read about the astronauts who died in that capsule with goofy smiles I've know what my move is. Don't nobody want to be struggling for those last breaths, shlt is gruesome.
 

sussle

Phil Edwards status
Oct 11, 2009
7,023
5,862
113
I've been saying this forever, inert gas asphyxiation. Every since I read about the astronauts who died in that capsule with goofy smiles I've know what my move is. Don't nobody want to be struggling for those last breaths, shlt is gruesome.
Right. Even better, formulate some kind of death trip cocktail - a carefully blended mix of fine Peruvian pink flake, X, acid, oxy, fresh raspberries, and nitrous oxide, carefully blended with ground spices and fresh fruit, topped with a double marangue infused with amyl nitrate.And you get high as a kite and leave this world shortly thereafter, with a smile on your face and a sense of enormous wellbeing.
:jamon:
 

racer1

Tom Curren status
Apr 16, 2014
12,404
13,262
113
Honolulu, Hawaii
When I can no longer surf, gonna have my lifeguard buddy tow me into 50 foot Jaws on a boogie board, no vest.
Hopefully my skin rips off before I inevitably drown. Have my kids and grandkids on the cliff cheering me on.
 

stringcheese

Michael Peterson status
Jun 21, 2017
3,331
2,760
113
Right. Even better, formulate some kind of death trip cocktail - a carefully blended mix of fine Peruvian pink flake, X, acid, oxy, fresh raspberries, and nitrous oxide, carefully blended with ground spices and fresh fruit, topped with a double marangue infused with amyl nitrate.And you get high as a kite and leave this world shortly thereafter, with a smile on your face and a sense of enormous wellbeing.
:jamon:
How had I not thought of this?! Obviously "not painful" can still be improved upon! You just changed the last page of my story! I'll spend the next 55ish years figuring out the perfect cocktail.
 
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Aruka

Tom Curren status
Feb 23, 2010
10,869
18,705
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PNW
it's easy to talk about going out in a dignified way before you get old and decrepit but i think the reality is that for most of us our will to survive is too strong. also I think it would be very hard to nail the moment when your life shifts from being worth living to not worth living. aging is a gradual process and humans are good at adapting.

on a brighter note i met a very nice 83 year old dude today who was sharp and funny and still enjoying life so maybe getting old won't be so bad if i take care of myself and get lucky.
 

vanrysss

Gerry Lopez status
Mar 25, 2019
1,270
2,705
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Sarcasm, right?

Or could you expound on this a bit?
Inflation going up drives an increase in wages which makes the burden of past debts less. Being a wagie has underpaid compared to being an entrepreneur due to low cost of capital, that seesaw is about to flip until we reach a new equilibrium.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
40,785
14,724
113
Petak Island
Inflation going up drives an increase in wages
An increase in wages that beats the new CPI 8% - more likely 16% - inflation?

Not likely.

Inflation is bad for wage workers even when your wages go up, because wages often do not beat inflation.

And if stagflation comes to pass? Very bad for wage workers.

Inflation kills wage workers because it eats away paychecks, especially in the initial inflationary environment.

And just like a loaf of bread is no longer 5 cents, price increases for goods tend to be permanent.

Prices don't drop because inflation backs off, so you purchasing power is still weakened compared to previous years. Moreso since the Fed goal is 2% inflation.


Inflation going up...which makes the burden of past debts less.
That's good for anyone holding debt, including "the rich."

"The rich" run on debt as they increase the size of their wealth and engage in entrepreneurial activities.

Higher interest rates amidst inflation effect everyone as well, and if you're a wage worker that needs to take a loan for a car for instance you're affected far more than "the rich" who can pay cash or slap down a big down payment.

Being a wagie has underpaid compared to being an entrepreneur due to low cost of capital, that seesaw is about to flip until we reach a new equilibrium.
The only flip that is going to take place is a flip back to 0% rates when the economy starts to tank. Which will be long before inflation is under control.
 
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