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GDP report shows booming 4.1 percent growth, as Trump touts 'terrific' numbers
- Thread starter Mike_Jones
- Start date
Trump’s tariffs goosed this number as Morgan Stanley estimated that soybean exports increased 9,400% to try and beat China’s retaliatory ones being implemented. For the foods, feeds and beverages line item its exports increased $29 billion from the March quarter. In comparison in the past two years, they increased $5.5 and $4.3 billion from the March to June quarters, respectively. Just a $25 billion swing in these exports added 0.7% to GDP growth. It wouldn’t be surprising to see trade be a drag on September quarter’s GDP."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/07/28/heres-what-impacted-the-june-quarters-gdp/#72935d1b230f
also take note of treasury yields. when the treasury market (roughly 4xs the size of the equities market) foresees a positive economic future yields rise. when the most recent GDP data dropped yields went red.
yields are, in fact, roughly unchanged since the Fed's 1st of now 7 hikes since December 2015. why you may ask yourself are yields not rising in the face of the touted strength of the US economy and rate hikes? because the treasury market (aka the smart money) knows it's all bullshyt.
