For those who think people will just go back to work, an interesting case study

Billy Ocean

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Reuters) - The managers at Green Circuits — a small Silicon Valley electronics factory — thought they would have to close when the San Francisco Bay Area directed non-essential businesses to shut almost three weeks ago.

But messages soon flowed in from customers telling them their parts were needed for things like medical and defense equipment....

Within days, an even bigger problem emerged and continues to dog the factory: Workers balked at coming to the job, fearful that spending hours on the production line with coworkers might expose them and their families to the virus.
 

GromsDad

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Jan 21, 2014
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West of the Atlantic. East of the ICW.
When this is over I predict businesses will come back leaner and meaner and a whole hell of a lot of non-essential employees won't be asked to return from their layoffs. Every business has those employees that they'd like to fire but couldn't. Those people simply won't be asked to return.
 

mundus

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Feb 26, 2018
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When this is over I predict businesses will come back leaner and meaner and a whole hell of a lot of non-essential employees won't be asked to return from their layoffs. Every business has those employees that they'd like to fire but couldn't. Those people simply won't be asked to return.
That will do wonders for the economy.
 

john4surf

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May 28, 2005
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From a pilot for FedEx:

FedEx still operating close to peak internationally, but we’ve slowed severely domestically. Balances out financially, as we’re still “above the line” (reference our last quarterly earnings statement). We’ve pulled 4 “semi-retired” FedEx MD-11s out of the desert and sent them to the Pacific (where I’ve been operating for the past 2 ½ months). Every run we’re flying there (between Honolulu, Sydney, Guangzhou, Osaka, Narita, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc…) are maxed out. No one else flying, so all that residual cargo is being directed our way. That being said, every route is nearly empty, and every airport is completely full of parked jets. A couple of examples:
  • Flew from Osaka to Beijing during 1 segment of a trip, and saw only 2 additional aircraft airborne the entire flight. During the time we fly that route (one of the busiest in the world), nearly 100+ additional aircraft are normally airborne. Silence on the radio, from the controllers, etc… most pacific airports have 1 controller that now covers regional approach, tower, and ground… ALL 3 of them. We landed in Beijing and were the only moving aircraft the entire time we taxied in, dropped our cargo, reloaded, and taxied out. Saw 2 other aircraft moving on the ground as we took off. But that was it. Literally 600+ aircraft parked in every square inch of concrete on that airport. Beijing (and most airports like it) are down to 1 runway, with all additional being used as parking lots for aircraft. Very eerie to see it like that.
  • Was lucky enough to have a United deadhead back from Osaka to SFO at the conclusion of one of my runs. Osaka is one of the busiest international “jump-off points” in Japan, and FedEx has a great facility there. From the time I made my way from the FedEx aircraft we landed there, checked in through one of the largest customs facilities I’ve ever seen (at Osaka International), took an inter-airport train to the international terminal, and finally made my way to the only 1 of 6 lounges open to await my flight’s departure (United), I only saw 2 people in the entire airport terminal. TWO. That United flight was on a 787, and Polaris Business Class (which normally holds about 36 people) had 4 of us in it. The entire aircraft had about 40 people total… most were United employees (aircrew and attendants) repositioning back to the United States after their routes had been cancelled. This was United’s last flight between Osaka and SFO for a long while (apparently), and there were many hugs and tears with United personnel, Japan airport folks they knew, etc… And the entire United ground crew lined up in a formation to solute the aircraft as we departed… reminded me of Navy cruises when we were launching aircraft to head back to the beach after 6+ months.
Global devastation and economic impacts are very apparent as one travels as much as we do internationally. This is going to take YEARS to recover, and return any semblance of “normalcy” (if that term is even relevant any longer) to many areas all over the globe. Incredible to see the lengths FedEx goes to, to keep us all healthy and protected through this mess. My hats off to our dispatchers, ground managers, and everyone on the team who’s making it happen safely for us all… as regulations and customs requirements literally change day to day… flight by flight.
Best,
 

Billy Ocean

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When this is over I predict businesses will come back leaner and meaner and a whole hell of a lot of non-essential employees won't be asked to return from their layoffs. Every business has those employees that they'd like to fire but couldn't. Those people simply won't be asked to return.
probably

but could also cause wave of unionization

lots of possibilities especially if businesses take bailouts
 

Billy Ocean

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U.S. grocery and food delivery workers are insisting employers pay them more and provide masks, gloves, gowns and access to testing. Whole Foods workers called for a recent “sickout” to demand better conditions, including double pay. A group of independent contractors for the Instacart grocery delivery service walked out to force more protections.

 

Ifallalot

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Dec 17, 2008
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Reuters) - The managers at Green Circuits — a small Silicon Valley electronics factory — thought they would have to close when the San Francisco Bay Area directed non-essential businesses to shut almost three weeks ago.

But messages soon flowed in from customers telling them their parts were needed for things like medical and defense equipment....

Within days, an even bigger problem emerged and continues to dog the factory: Workers balked at coming to the job, fearful that spending hours on the production line with coworkers might expose them and their families to the virus.
Easy answer

Fire those people, hire people who are looking for work

Crisis are times for opportunity
 

Billy Ocean

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Easy answer

Fire those people, hire people who are looking for work

Crisis are times for opportunity
you think a business can just fire large percentages of its workers and rehire easily?

is that easier or harder than providing adequate protection for the workers you already have?
 

Ifallalot

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Dec 17, 2008
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you think a business can just fire large percentages of its workers and rehire easily?

is that easier or harder than providing adequate protection for the workers you already have?
Obviously it's easier to provide adequate protection, but there are some people that simply will not go back to work regardless of protection
 

obslop

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Feb 4, 2002
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Reuters) - The managers at Green Circuits — a small Silicon Valley electronics factory — thought they would have to close when the San Francisco Bay Area directed non-essential businesses to shut almost three weeks ago.

But messages soon flowed in from customers telling them their parts were needed for things like medical and defense equipment....

Within days, an even bigger problem emerged and continues to dog the factory: Workers balked at coming to the job, fearful that spending hours on the production line with coworkers might expose them and their families to the virus.
inflation

do not count it out.

position for it.
 

Ifallalot

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totally agree but not everyone is replaceable all at once

when you have mass sick outs and the like it will cripple businesses
It would, just like a strike

However, not everyone is as terrified of the virus as some people are, and I don't think it would be all that common at the end of the day
 

obslop

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Feb 4, 2002
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wage price spiral?

will be interesting to see how that could play out

huge unemployment numbers should work against it
will take some time but will be based on:

oil prices (once SA bankrupts everyone else oil prices will rise and substantially)

collapse in the USD (all that QE and stimulus is not free)

debt/GDP ratio
 
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