RR won against Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984. Source.reagan ran against Dukakis?
He took no pleasure in winning the Presidency, nor did any of the enlightened people who were glad the others lost.
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RR won against Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984. Source.reagan ran against Dukakis?
Nate Silver lost me in 2016. don't care how much navel-gazing he's done since.I remember previously suggesting that Nate Silver was due for a fall. I took sh!t for something like two days about that. Then he fell. Multiple times.
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists…fivethirtyeight.com
Presumably he learned his lesson.
IMO, this one is in the bag for Biden. If he lives long enough.
This is much more realistic.Is that your prediction VM? I don't think that is Nate Silver's prediction. His map is based on polling aggregates. I looked at his site and Trump is ahead in Texas and Ohio. I would definitely give Trump Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Arizona, North Carolina and Florida I would say are a toss up, but in an abundance of caution I would say go (stay) red.
In my prediction Trump still loses. Pennsylvania is the Keystone. It's almost out of the range of statistical error. If I were either candidate I would be in the Rust Belt the next two weeks.
View attachment 99486
You can go to their site and make your prediction. Everyone should do one and then we can compare the results.
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential electionwww.270towin.com
Here's mine-
View attachment 99481
Well of course if tRump wins.This is much more realistic.
Now, are the riots going to be worse if Biden or Trump wins?
We all know the answer to that
Remember the polls in 2016?Well of course if tRump wins.
If Biden wins, it was because the election was fair.
If tRump wins, while being down 20% in the polls, we know something is amiss
In 2016 d0nnie was down in the polls, and lost the majority vote. This time he's down by 20%Remember the polls in 2016?
THe only thing that is amiss is reporting on them and methodology
I am so bracing for a trump win.I don't know about Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
I just looked at 538's snake model, and that still shows Iowa, Ohio, and Texas going for Trump. Checking 538's most recent polls feeding the averages, there's mostly results in FL, NC, and AZ that are within the margin of error.
You people cheerleading better hope Biden wins one of those three on election night by 2-3 points. If this comes down to trusting the Wisconsin GOP to not try to rtfck the election...
That is Nate Silvers personal prediction. His websites, which is more than just him could be different.Is that your prediction VM? I don't think that is Nate Silver's prediction. His map is based on polling aggregates. I looked at his site and Trump is ahead in Texas and Ohio. I would definitely give Trump Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Arizona, North Carolina and Florida I would say are a toss up, but in an abundance of caution I would say go (stay) red.
In my prediction Trump still loses. Pennsylvania is the Keystone. It's almost out of the range of statistical error. If I were either candidate I would be in the Rust Belt the next two weeks.
View attachment 99486
You can go to their site and make your prediction. Everyone should do one and then we can compare the results.
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential electionwww.270towin.com
Here's mine-
View attachment 99481
You not doing a good job in preparing yourself for whats happening.In 2016 d0nnie was down in the polls, and lost the majority vote. This time he's down by 20%
Where are you seeing 20%? I see around 10%. That's still outside the statistical margin of error, but with our system the national polls are meaningless.In 2016 d0nnie was down in the polls, and lost the majority vote. This time he's down by 20%
Then he's not looking at his own data.That is Nate Silvers personal prediction. His websites, which is more than just him could be different.
Nothing to prepare for. I'm not going to riot, no matter the outcome. Nothing I do will change anything. I will cast my vote, after that I am a pebble in the stream.You not doing a good job in preparing yourself for whats happening.
Let's say, as an Asian, I wouldn't want to be in Alabama or Louisiana honking horns and waving a Biden flag if he wins...This is much more realistic.
Now, are the riots going to be worse if Biden or Trump wins?
We all know the answer to that
yes, MBP, you should strive for the approval of the most interesting man-tantrum in the world!It would be kind of neat if you came up with an original thought, just once will do.
Biden flag waving goes against my Asian stereotypes.Let's say, as an Asian, I wouldn't want to be in Alabama or Louisiana honking horns and waving a Biden flag if he wins...
Where did you get this map?That is Nate Silvers personal prediction. His websites, which is more than just him could be different.
One can only hope.yes, MBP, you should strive for the approval of the most interesting man-tantrum in the world!