Democrat Messiah Nate Silver. Book It.

sussle

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Oct 11, 2009
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I remember previously suggesting that Nate Silver was due for a fall. I took sh!t for something like two days about that. Then he fell. Multiple times.


Presumably he learned his lesson.

IMO, this one is in the bag for Biden. If he lives long enough.
Nate Silver lost me in 2016. don't care how much navel-gazing he's done since.
 

Ifallalot

Duke status
Dec 17, 2008
88,281
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Is that your prediction VM? I don't think that is Nate Silver's prediction. His map is based on polling aggregates. I looked at his site and Trump is ahead in Texas and Ohio. I would definitely give Trump Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Arizona, North Carolina and Florida I would say are a toss up, but in an abundance of caution I would say go (stay) red.

In my prediction Trump still loses. Pennsylvania is the Keystone. It's almost out of the range of statistical error. If I were either candidate I would be in the Rust Belt the next two weeks.

View attachment 99486



You can go to their site and make your prediction. Everyone should do one and then we can compare the results.


Here's mine-

View attachment 99481
This is much more realistic.

Now, are the riots going to be worse if Biden or Trump wins?

We all know the answer to that
 
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Why_was_I_banned

Billy Hamilton status
Sep 5, 2020
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This is much more realistic.

Now, are the riots going to be worse if Biden or Trump wins?

We all know the answer to that
Well of course if tRump wins.

If Biden wins, it was because the election was fair.

If tRump wins, while being down 20% in the polls, we know something is amiss
 
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Ifallalot

Duke status
Dec 17, 2008
88,281
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Well of course if tRump wins.

If Biden wins, it was because the election was fair.

If tRump wins, while being down 20% in the polls, we know something is amiss
Remember the polls in 2016?

THe only thing that is amiss is reporting on them and methodology
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
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Jacksonville Beach
I don't know about Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

I just looked at 538's snake model, and that still shows Iowa, Ohio, and Texas going for Trump. Checking 538's most recent polls feeding the averages, there's mostly results in FL, NC, and AZ that are within the margin of error.

You people cheerleading better hope Biden wins one of those three on election night by 2-3 points. If this comes down to trusting the Wisconsin GOP to not try to rtfck the election...
 

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
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Vagina Point
I don't know about Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

I just looked at 538's snake model, and that still shows Iowa, Ohio, and Texas going for Trump. Checking 538's most recent polls feeding the averages, there's mostly results in FL, NC, and AZ that are within the margin of error.

You people cheerleading better hope Biden wins one of those three on election night by 2-3 points. If this comes down to trusting the Wisconsin GOP to not try to rtfck the election...
I am so bracing for a trump win.

 

VonMeister

Duke status
Apr 26, 2013
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JOE BIDENS RAPE FINGER
Is that your prediction VM? I don't think that is Nate Silver's prediction. His map is based on polling aggregates. I looked at his site and Trump is ahead in Texas and Ohio. I would definitely give Trump Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Arizona, North Carolina and Florida I would say are a toss up, but in an abundance of caution I would say go (stay) red.

In my prediction Trump still loses. Pennsylvania is the Keystone. It's almost out of the range of statistical error. If I were either candidate I would be in the Rust Belt the next two weeks.

View attachment 99486



You can go to their site and make your prediction. Everyone should do one and then we can compare the results.


Here's mine-

View attachment 99481
That is Nate Silvers personal prediction. His websites, which is more than just him could be different.
 

One-Off

Tom Curren status
Jul 28, 2005
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33.8N - 118.4W
In 2016 d0nnie was down in the polls, and lost the majority vote. This time he's down by 20%
Where are you seeing 20%? I see around 10%. That's still outside the statistical margin of error, but with our system the national polls are meaningless.

I did see an interview with Nate Silver where he said that last time around pollsters missed the white male, non college educated vote and so pollsters were being careful to monitor that more carefully this time around. We'll see....
 

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
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Vagina Point
Let's say, as an Asian, I wouldn't want to be in Alabama or Louisiana honking horns and waving a Biden flag if he wins...
Biden flag waving goes against my Asian stereotypes.

I just can't see it.

Implicit bias is real.

Years ago, I was teaching business writing and I had a bunch of international students from Asia confront me, saying I was racist against asians because I graded their essays down due to all the ESL errors.

I lost my sh!t.

I had a student from Taiwan who got As on his essays. He wasn't part of the group.

I told him to give me his essay that had an A grade on it.

I put it in the face of the Chinese women trying to lead the insurrection.

I said, "If I'm racist against Asians, why would I give him and 'A'? Maybe there is some other factor determining how I grade, like your writing!"

I was livid.

The woman backed down and said, "Oh, ok, you not racist. Sorry."

It all worked out and everyone passed.

Now they tell us not to grade too harshly for ESL errors.

But also maintain rigor.:socrazy:
 
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