New paper estimating COVID global CFR of .29%, which is 10x swine flu. Not Just Flu, but that doesn't mean, "Shelter in place indefinitely."
The University of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine offers an extensive assessment of COVID-19 mortality and infection data in its article on Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates, updated daily. “Comparison with Swine Flu The overall case fatality rate as of 16 July 2009 (10 weeks after...
tauruslondono.com
As Dr. Levitt of Stanford said, "This is 4 - 8x worse than the flu, but not a cause for panic." BAck-of-the-envelope, without mitigation, we could've had 500,000 deaths (H1N1 actually only killed 12,000in the US, I'm multiplying by the number of flu deaths in the US in 2017/2018), but that's certaintly not the millions predicted by Dr. Ferguson/Imperial College and Dr. Lipsitch/Harvard. Then again, I wonder if it was around before March when we started testing. There was zero mitigation before March.
Edit: On the other hand:
The mortality rate is much lower than the official numbers suggest, and adaptive behavior affects the transmission rate.
reason.com