Possibly. But that depends on how much the lease/rental price is tied to expenses vs how much it is tied to a market of comps. In other words, are commercial landlords offering leases based on their bills or what they can get away with charging?
A lease is a lease-if the lease calls for the increase, then the rent goes up unless the owner decides otherwise. Most people charge the market rate. If the tax is higher the market rate will likely increase across the board, subject to supply and demand.The owner took the risk to buy the place. Commercial tenants can take a long time to find. In my experience it can take over a year.
The older, larger competitors that benefit from the Prop 13 loophole are already operating with this competitive edge. Business large enough to incur a higher tax rate that aren't already paying one will have to make those decisions.
I'm not going to say I don't have a personal interest. I own a commercial property and run a small business out of it. Total of six employees. The property tax is 30k. Obscene in my view but manageable. The value of the building has tripled over the last 12 years. I never would, or could, buy my building at today's price. I could sell and cash out, but that would mean closing a 40 year old business, and losing future income, not to mention the tax bill unless I buy something else, which I wouldn't at this stage of the game.
Or, if 15 passes by 2025 the tax will be 90k. I still wouldn't want to sell but my tenant, and my clients, and by extension, everybody who interacts with my clients and my tenant's clients will pay part of the increase. So I'm one man running a small business and paying 30k just in PT, not to mention all the other fees and taxes, but apparantley some people think that's that's not enough. Fu%k them.
Currently. yes. Tax the working class a little and they are incapacitated. Tax em enough and you get real social change. We'll see what happens.
Another option is for many companies to grow slower and make less profit, yet continue to survive rather than pass their expenses on to consumers. Usually this formula is reserved for actual workers.