Are the Democrats about to cook up a fake war

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,214
5,642
113
I guess "catastrophic consequences" means we go to war with Russia. Unstated in the article is that Russian doctrine also calls for the use of strategic nukes to "escalate to de-escalate."
Of course, the US wouldn’t want to “go it alone” and would instead look for military support from nations such as the UK and France, as in the strikes against Libya in 2011.
WWIII!
“They’d have to leave the Russians guessing about what that might look like,” Gen Jones said. The critical thing would be to differentiate between ‘vertical’ and ‘horizontal’ escalation.
Vertical escalation, a commensurate or more powerful strike using the same military means, would involve the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“The West wouldn't want vertical escalation, or even to match a Russian nuclear strike,” the former head of Britain’s Joint Force Command says.
Exactly. How will the Russians tell the difference between 'horizontal' and 'vertical' escalation? Isn't escalation - by definition - in the vertical direction?
Seems like the Boomers are going to take out the Western world with them.
 

Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
11,446
6,679
113
LBNY
Well that’s depressing. I may just cash in the 401 k, pay the tax and penalty and sell the house, and just go on vacation for as many years as I can, or until we all die in nuclear war; whatever comes first
 
  • Love
Reactions: grapedrink

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,214
5,642
113
Well that’s depressing. I may just cash in the 401 k, pay the tax and penalty and sell the house, and just go on vacation for as many years as I can, or until we all die in nuclear war; whatever comes first
10 years ago, I sounded like Grapedrink - I was going to stash a lot in index funds and FIRE. Now the spread between the decline in DJIA and inflation is about 30%, so my plan doesn't look so good. We might say that in the long run it'll bounce back, but in the long run we're all dead. Civilizations also die, which is why I cannot put money in a Medici fractional reserve bank anymore, or a Carthaginian one.

Considering we went from an overreaction to a pandemic with .3% IFR straight to danger of nuclear war, I think our civilization is closer to its end than its beginning, so your plan sounds as good as any.
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
23,145
5,264
113
San Francisco, CA
Nuclear war between USA and Russia means almost everybody in Europe and North America dies, most of Asia too. Southern Hemisphere people will live but their civilization will be set back 100 years.

"...Southern Hemisphere people will live but their civilization will be set back 100 years."

or not.

 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,214
5,642
113
"...Southern Hemisphere people will live but their civilization will be set back 100 years."

or not.

The simulations I ran predicted 100 million deaths in the USA based on a 1000 warhead, 1 gigaton exchange. Yeah the Southern hemisphere will fare better.

Good podcast:
 
Last edited:

StuAzole

Duke status
Jan 22, 2016
22,816
5,560
113
Putins doing a great job with this war, huh righwing authoritarian lovers?
Yes, we should be very afraid of the guy who can't beat Ukraine and now has people flooding the borders to gtfo out of Russia.

Odds he's going to drop a nuke on a country immediately adjacent to his own are zero.

The continuing fear of this paper tiger is baffling.
 

Kento

Duke status
Jan 11, 2002
64,806
15,503
113
The Bar
On the bright side of thermonuclear holocaust, no one will deny that the resulting climate change was caused by mankind.

Let me know when it's bomb shelter time and I'll rent a backhoe, start pouring concrete.

But. Not. Forget. The. Can. Opener.

1664302542804.png
 

Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
11,446
6,679
113
LBNY
The Irish are welcoming and housing Ukrainian refugees. The Euros take this seriously and are pissed at Putin. He’s all alone on this one; and I suspect a whimpering withdraw
 

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
59,221
16,112
113
61
Vagina Point
Do the pro Putin people think Putin should have been left alone to take over Ukraine?

Do they think the US should have supplied him with the good missiles?

Do the pro putin people think he would have stopped at Ukraine?
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,214
5,642
113
The Irish are welcoming and housing Ukrainian refugees. The Euros take this seriously and are pissed at Putin.
That goes way back. Here's the Prussian Empire until 1918. Prussia (the Germans) fought Russia in in WWI the same territory Putin is fighting over now.
1664311292340.png

He’s all alone on this one;
Only the countries in yellow are sanctioning Russia.
1664310993170.png

The representatives of roughly 3 billion people are in this photo from the SCO meeting:
1664311136918.png

and I suspect a whimpering withdraw
Maybe. RIght now, Putin is mobilizing another 300,000 reservists, buying more ordnance, and threatening with nukes.
 

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
59,221
16,112
113
61
Vagina Point
Does China and India think Putin will use nukes?

Are they okay with it?

They could really help my not buying putin's discounted gas.
 

Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
11,446
6,679
113
LBNY
They’ll defect/desert and the ones that don’t will get hammered. The average military aged male in Ukraine is now a seasoned veteran fighting for his homeland. I feel sorry for the conscripts they will be rocket artillery and rifle fodder.

putin isn't nuking anyone, and those countries in yellow represent a pretty wealthy and powerful block of countries. I feel you, this is hairy, and I can’t imagine what the Poles and other immediate neighbors are feeling right now. They remember how many times they have been carved up, conquered, nearly eradicated etc.
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
9,214
5,642
113
They’ll defect/desert and the ones that don’t will get hammered. The average military aged male in Ukraine is now a seasoned veteran fighting for his homeland. I feel sorry for the conscripts they will be rocket artillery and rifle fodder.
A lot of this was/is simultaneously true of the Ukraine - we have no idea what their attrition rate is and how they're replenishing men at the front or what training they have. We do know that Russia has 3-4 times the population.

putin isn't nuking anyone,
How do we know what he's going to do? Does he see this as a must-win situation? How are we able to read his thoughts? Admittedly, he talked about this at the beginning and didn't do it, so maybe we assume he therefore won't. Seems like Washington wants him to as it's now incandescently obvious that they wanted this situation with Russia. I haven't seen Washington this committed to a war since 2003.

and those countries in yellow represent a pretty wealthy and powerful block of countries.
They are, but from the RUssian point-of-view they're locked out of economic cooperation already and the sanctions seem to be hurting both sides. This was John Robb's point about there being not much room to escalate except to WWIII and nuclear war.

I feel you, this is hairy, and I can’t imagine what the Poles and other immediate neighbors are feeling right now. They remember how many times they have been carved up, conquered, nearly eradicated etc.
Well, nuclear radiation from certain isotopes lasts a really long time. Look at Chernobyl.