2008 - coldest year since 87?

blakestah

Phil Edwards status
Sep 10, 2002
6,139
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Some of the climate data has turned noticeably colder in the last 12 months.


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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/03/au...han-1-year-ago/

This brings down the 12-month running mean to +0.086, which is very slightly lower than the +0.091 12-month running mean to the end of November 1987. That’s almost 21 years ago.

What I’m really waiting for is Hadley and GISS 12-month means to drop below their 1995 values. Hadley might make it in the next couple of months. GISS by year end. Once we get annual means matching temperatures on the other side of 1998, global cooling will be undeniable.
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GWS

Duke status
Jan 11, 2002
42,605
21
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done
This should be in the main forum. You have politicians on both sides of the aisle that have picked up the global warming torch. It's not a political issue, it's an environmental issue. And it's surfing related because whatever is happening, we have to surf/live in it.
 

elcalvo

Michael Peterson status
Mar 16, 2004
3,314
436
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NE
This should be in the main forum. You have politicians on both sides of the aisle that have picked up the global warming torch. It's not a political issue, it's an environmental issue. And it's surfing related because whatever is happening, we have to surf/live in it.
I have never understood why people on either side are so insistent on making this a political issue. The hard data is what it is, no matter which political party takes whatever position on it.

I have put my money on the cooling trend. I just put a new snow plow on the truck for this winter. <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />
 

blakestah

Phil Edwards status
Sep 10, 2002
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I have curiousity about the data from a scientific perspective.

First of all, when people post the historic thousands of years CO2 and temperature trends, you see an interesting variation. Whenever CO2 gets really high, temperature is with it, and they both fall off VERY fast (in the time scale of thousands of years). In other words, whenever CO2 gets really high and it gets really warm, it triggers an ice age.



Then, there are the sunspot cycles. Sunspots wax and wane with a roughly 11 year period. Radiation from the sun waxes and wanes with the same time period. It is warmer during sunspot peaks, and colder during the nadirs.



We are at a nadir, and it has been stuck in the nadir for 2-3 years - long enough to cause people to take note.

Anyway, I came across this website that says that the 2008 temperature record is anomalously low.

You cannot evaluate global warming and man's contribution based on 1 year.

But still, a 21 year outlier exists right now IN SPITE of ever higher CO2 levels. And it seems to be timed with the sunspot nadir that is persisting longer than normal. Whether man is causing global warming or not, you gotta realize that much larger temperature variations can occur due to extrinsic factors (like solar variability) or intrinsic factors like large volcanic eruptions.

Curious.
 

blakestah

Phil Edwards status
Sep 10, 2002
6,139
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Then have a look at this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081018.ARCTICICE18/TPStory/Environment

Using large time eras trying to counteract facts on the ground that are happening rapidly is a mugs game.
But then so is the 911 conspiracy theory spouted by some people. <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />


Take care.
2008 was a cold year in North America - colder than average, FAR colder than predictions from global warming - setting the warming clock back 25 years! Maybe this is just the red states turning blue...

 

toreador

Phil Edwards status
Apr 1, 2006
6,052
0
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socal beachbreak barrels
This should be in the main forum. You have politicians on both sides of the aisle that have picked up the global warming torch. It's not a political issue, it's an environmental issue. And it's surfing related because whatever is happening, we have to surf/live in it.
global cooling is occuring.

ski resorts are opening early across the US, many are record early openings in terms of both the early dates and amount of snowfall rec'd.

global cooling is good for surfers, bad for humanity.

we get the benefit of increased gradients between the poles and temperate regions.
 

toreador

Phil Edwards status
Apr 1, 2006
6,052
0
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socal beachbreak barrels
well, for once we agree. anyone with half a brain knows that co2 is not a pollutant, and is not a contributor to a warming planet - increasing levels in the atmosphere are the result of a warming planet, not the cause.

you can demonstrate this by seeing how fast a warm soda goes flat compared to a cold one.

interesting, i posted the same graph over on the main forum.

there's no doubt we are in a geologic time scale warming trend, but a short term rapid cooling trend.

the implication is that AGW is dead.
 

galleon

Michael Peterson status
May 30, 2004
2,700
1
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Austin, TX
OK.

I have curiousity about the data from a scientific perspective.
I'm going to completely ignore hallucigenic toreador in this thread, since he/she has proven themselves to reliably have absolutely nothing of value to contribute to the discussion.

First of all, when people post the historic thousands of years CO2 and temperature trends, you see an interesting variation. Whenever CO2 gets really high, temperature is with it, and they both fall off VERY fast (in the time scale of thousands of years).
Huh? It takes 50,000 to 75,000 years to go from full interglacial (warm) to glacial (ice age). It takes 8,000-10,000 years to go from full glacial to interglacial. In that time, CO2 varies by 100 ppm. So thats 100 ppm change in CO2 in 10,000 years. CO2 has by ~70 PPM in 40 years. Thats a rate change of 2 orders of magnitude from the normal glacial-interglacial cycle. That is enormous.


But still, a 21 year outlier exists right now IN SPITE of ever higher CO2 levels. And it seems to be timed with the sunspot nadir that is persisting longer than normal. Whether man is causing global warming or not, you gotta realize that much larger temperature variations can occur due to extrinsic factors (like solar variability) or intrinsic factors like large volcanic eruptions.
Actually, you left out the largest and most important one on year to year scales: El Nino.
And the second more important: stochastic variability. The line between an anomalous year being considered the reasult of "weather", or stochastic noise in the system, an part of the climate signal is a gray area.
 

elcalvo

Michael Peterson status
Mar 16, 2004
3,314
436
83
NE
For the past week, we have been about 20 degrees below our average daytime high temp. Should be low 50's, but we have barely hit freezing.
We already have ice on the river, very unusual for November. It will be melting this week as we will be getting into the 40's, but November is going to average out way below normal for us.
 

elcalvo

Michael Peterson status
Mar 16, 2004
3,314
436
83
NE
NBC Fires Weather Channel Environmental Unit
Some on-camera meteorologists also let go


NBC Universal made the first of potentially several rounds of staffing cuts at The Weather Channel (TWC) on Wednesday, axing the entire staff of the "Forecast Earth" environmental program during the middle of NBC's "Green Week," as well as several on-camera meteorologists. The layoffs totaled about 10 percent of the workforce, and are among the first major changes made since NBC completed its purchase of the venerable weather network in September.


The layoffs affected about 80 people, but left the long-term leadership of the network unclear, according to a source who requested anonymity due to the continuing uncertainty at the station.

Among the meteorologists who was let go was Dave Schwartz, a Weather Channel veteran and a viewer staple due to his lively on camera presentations. USA Today reported that meteorologists Cheryl Lemke and Eboni Deon were also let go.

The timing of the Forecast Earth cancellation was ironic, since it came in the middle of NBC's "Green Week," during which the network has been touting its environmental coverage across all of its platforms. Forecast Earth normally aired on weekends, but its presumed last episode was shown on a weekday due to the environmentally-oriented week.

Forecast Earth was hosted by former CNN anchor Natalie Allen, with contributions from climate expert Heidi Cullen. It was the sole program on TWC that focused on global climate change, which raises the question of whether the station will still report on the subject. Cullen's future role at the network is not known.

NBC released the following statement in response to questions about the firings:

The economic realities of recent months have created challenges for everyone in our business. In addition, when NBC Universal purchased the Weather Channel earlier this year, we expected that there would be cost synergies as part of a company reorganization. While it is always difficult to lose valued employees, we are doing our best to minimize the impact, and remain committed to providing the highest quality content that our viewers have come to expect from the Weather Channel.

By Andrew Freedman | November 21, 2008; 5:00 PM ET Media , News &amp; Notes
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