160,000

[hal9000]

Remember when it was going to be 3 million?

It was 2.2 million, and that was in the absence of ANY mitigation or changes in human behavior, but I'm sure you don't really care about that facts based on your posting here.

How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19

The trouble with being too easily led by models is we can too easily be misled by models. Epidemic models may seem entirely different from economic models or climate models, but they all make terrible forecasts if filled with wrong assumptions and parameters.

www.cato.org

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic… In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

The worst‐case Imperial College estimate of 2.2 million deaths if everyone does “nothing” did not simply mean no government lockdowns, as a March 31 White House graph with two curves implied. It meant nobody avoids crowded elevators, or wears face masks, washes their hands more often, or buys gloves or hand sanitizer. Everyone does literally nothing to avoid danger.The Ferguson team knew that was unrealistic, yet their phantasmal 2.2 million estimate depended on it. As they reticently acknowledged, “it is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous change in population behavior even in the absence of government‐mandated interventions.” An earlier February 20 brief said, “Some social distancing is to be expected, even in the absence of formal control measures.”

 

[plasticbertrand]

Remember when it was going to be 3 million?

Yeah remember when it's not even going to be 30,000 and when economy crashed and turned America into a Mad Max society and guns and anarchy took over.

That was so cool.

And you still find deaths of other people funny. POS

 

[GDaddy]

Given our culture here in the U.S. this is literally the cost of doing business. You will need to force people to comply in order to maintain the lockdown.

Maybe we should be "better than that". Unfortunately, we're not.

 

[kidfury]

Maybe we should be "better than that". Unfortunately, we're not.

Every now and then, some insight

 

[GDaddy]

I've always said that. I'll take it a step further and echo the talking point that we're going to get different politics when we base our policies on how we think people should act if only we actually were "better than that" vs how we think people actually will act IRL.

Conflict of visions

 

[grapedrink]

Given our culture here in the U.S. this is literally the cost of doing business. You will need to force people to comply in order to maintain the lockdown.

Maybe we should be "better than that". Unfortunately, we're not.

Murkans gonna Murkan. U S A ! U S A!

 

[Autoprax]

There is this thing: it's called "delayed gratification."

You suffer now for a later payoff.

Americans can't do that no more?

"Discipline is freedom." --JW

 

[Ifallalot]

It was 2.2 million, and that was in the absence of ANY mitigation or changes in human behavior, but I'm sure you don't really care about that facts based on your posting here.

How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19

The trouble with being too easily led by models is we can too easily be misled by models. Epidemic models may seem entirely different from economic models or climate models, but they all make terrible forecasts if filled with wrong assumptions and parameters.

www.cato.org

No one cared about the details of those facts when the powers that be were in the process of getting everyone terrified enough in order to be ok with destroying day to day life, the economy, and the educational system

These were the initial numbers trotted out, and the reason why today healthy non-elderly people think that they might actually die from coronavirus

 

[hammies]

There is this thing: it's called "delayed gratification."

You suffer now for a later payoff.

Americans can't do that no more?

No, we can't. We are a nation of spoiled brats. The concepts of shared sacrifice and responsibility to others have, along with delayed gratification, gone by the wayside.

Our parents and grandparents who bequeathed us the vast wealth and power that America now holds would be appalled.

 

[GDaddy]

If only it was true that "we're better than that".

This leads directly to what happens when we base our expectations on what we think people should do instead of what we think people will do.

 

[Mr Doof]

180K dead is about 3 times as many USA military that died in Vietnam War.

Had an uncle who died in that war (small wooden box of cremains) and a very sad mom for a long time.

So I know its gotta suck gobs for the dead's relatives/friends.

 

[plasticbertrand]

180K dead is about 3 times as many USA military that died in Vietnam War.

Had an uncle who died in that war (small wooden box of cremains) and a very sad mom for a long time.

So I know its gotta suck gobs for the dead's relatives/friends.

Ifailalot and grapeboi can't comprehend that.

They think that more people should die so they're not inconvenienced by wearing masks.

 

[grapedrink]

180K dead is about 3 times as many USA military that died in Vietnam War.

Had an uncle who died in that war (small wooden box of cremains) and a very sad mom for a long time.

So I know its gotta suck gobs for the dead's relatives/friends.

Fair point, although they also died a much more horrible death at a younger age, all in the name of garbage foreign policy. So it's not really a fair comparison.

 

[plasticbertrand]

Fair point, although they also died a much more horrible death at a younger age, all in the name of garbage foreign policy. So it's not really a fair comparison.

The point was that people who are dying are somebody's family.

Yet, you find it funny and think that they should just die because they have "just a few years left anyway" and economy is more important.

Gross human being.

 

[kidfury]

Fair point, although they also died a much more horrible death at a younger age, all in the name of garbage foreign policy. So it's not really a fair comparison.

Are you referring to Hiroshima/Nagasaki?

 

[Kento]

Fair point, although they also died a much more horrible death at a younger age, all in the name of garbage foreign policy. So it's not really a fair comparison.

I just finished reading The Pentagon Papers. Great book from an informational standpoint although a bit dry at times. Probably worthy of its own thread. Good on the Supreme Court rejecting the government's pleas for secrecy and allowing the NYT to proceed with their reporting to let the American people know what was really going on (Trump would have screamed that it was Fake News). I would bet that john4surf has a tremendous amount of insight on those days.

There was some warped logic going on back then. So communism spreads. But it's a bad system. Horrible. So why would we give a sh*t? It'll implode on its own right and America will remain above the ashes, right? Or were we worried that it was such a good system that it would take over here? Similar to now, everything that might advance human rights (unions, worker protections, civil rights, etc.) in any way was referred to as communist by the bible-humpers as anything that might be good for the common people is of course an affront to God.

That being said, the Iron Curtain emerging in Eastern Europe, Korean War, emergence of Mao in China, etc. combined with communist governments emerging in SE Asia all happening in a relatively short time (especially considering pre-Internet attention span) was probably highly unnerving. So, instead we did what we do best, support a hugely unpopular and corrupt head of government instead of letting the people of that country decide for themselves with at least some level of autonomy. I'm sure the next time we do that, we'll have better results with no backlash whatsoever.

 

[Mr Doof]

Fair point, although they also died a much more horrible death at a younger age, all in the name of garbage foreign policy. So it's not really a fair comparison.

Uncle Bruce was the first MD in the family (both sides). I think he was in mid/late 20s when his medical chopper took fire and went in, don't think there any in the helicopter that survived. He interned here at SF General before being drafted.

# of dead was one of the points of the 'get out of Vietnam' argument. I don't remember/know if there was a "and they're young too" part of it.

Agree the # part of this is just a metric, but I was really just trying to show that approximately 60K servicemen (and servicewomen?) died and it was tough for a lot of people, so 180K dead is going to be tougher for a bit more people. Don't know if age of the dead makes much difference to the grieving.

 

[plasticbertrand]

Don't know if age of the dead makes much difference to the grieving.

BUT THEY ONLY HAVE 5-10 YEARS LEFT ANYWAY - grapeboi/ifailalot

 

[GDaddy]

A certain number of people normally die of the flu every year. That's your benchmark, not Zero.

 

[plasticbertrand]

A certain number of people normally die of the flu every year. That's your benchmark, not Zero.

Covid is not a flu, that's your dummy benchmark.