Lets discuss the current media craze of reporting "record new cases"....which....is the reason for the re-tightened mandate in CA right now....as of yesterday....at least that's what the news is saying, right?
So, hypothetically, across the last three months....say April, May & June....I tested 100 people in April, 1000 in May and 10,000 in June.....and these tests returned positive results of 10 in April, 100 in May and 1000 in June. So....following the current reporting method I can claim June had a record number of new cases.....because 1000 in June is a much bigger number than April or May numbers....right? Easy. But misleading. The real question is the size of the problem in the population....which...based on the numbers above did not change....it's 10% in April, May and June. ie....the problem size did not go up as implied by reporting "record new cases".
Everysurfer....do you agree that % positive across time is a better metric as compared to "new cases"? If you agree...no answer required....if you disagree....please respond with a logical rational explanation of why reporting "number of new cases" is meaningful to the problem. While you're at it....also include a synopsis of why this has anything to do with FE (other than to try to make my statements carry less weight when you have no legs to stand on yourself regarding my assertions).
Also....do you know where we can find "% of positive tests" across time data? Linky?
Simply put, you have a population that you are testing; You test 100 and you get 5 positive tests. That means a 5% infection rate. So you test 200; you get 10 positive tests. Still 5%. That newsman you are getting more positive tests, but not to worry, because the % stays the same. You don't need to know the population. That's basic statistics.
But what is now happening is the % of positive cases is going up. Now for example, the % of positive tests is 10%. That means there are twice as many infected.
You like fishing? You go out today an catch 1 fish in 4 hours. Tomorrow you catch 6 fish in 4 hours. You're going to tell everybody, "wow! the fish are really running!
Same thing with covid . That's the easy part.
The hard part of the conversation is getting you to believe any source of information. Any thing I tell you is going to fall into a pit of disbelief. You will discount if as "biased" or "A hoax" or any other label you want to put on it.
I'm telling you that any profit driven source could be doubted. All those videos you post are driven by ad revenue. Nobody is going to watch a YouTube video saying the earth is round. But if I makje a video saying the earth is flat, or a cure for cancer is drinking bat ****, instantly I'll get clicks from folks who want " the secret your government doesn't want you to know."
So do the smell test. Ask why someone is telling you something.
tRump says what he says for profit. He wants everybody to think all is well so he can get re-elected. Or to keep the stock market up, because that makes him richer. Rich banks loan him money. Rich people buy his condos. Rich people play golf at his resorts. If everyone stays home, donnie goes bankrupt. He fails the smell test.
Now if the CDC tells you the disease is getting worse, or if Fauchi days it is getting worse, give it the smell test. Fauchi keeps his job, only if he is right. His life's work hasn't been to get rich, or he would be in the private sector selling disease cures. Instead his lifes work is to be a civil servant, keeping people disease free.
I'm going to listen to that guy.
Now Fauchi says the rate of infection is going way up. He says that it's going to get really ugly soon.
I'd listen to him and prepare.
