All of the sudden money grows on trees despite no water to water the tree and not just in Hawaii.
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Waikiki During Quarantine
- Thread starter racer1
- Start date
from what i hear of the reopening strategy, probably not, it's going to have to be different.
The only way you can limit the total number of tourists is to make it real expensive for the ones that can afford to come here in order to make up the $ difference.
That means per visitor they will have to spend way more than the ones currently coming here on the cheap, kind of like Hawaii was in the 30's-40s when this when waikiki was the playground of the rich and famous. Flights and ships to Hawaii back then were vessels of the rich and famous. Waikiki could become really nice for locals for awhile again.
The industry knows that no matter what people will still come here, its doesn't have to be about low prices and volume.
They are positioning this as one of the safest place to vacation(like they did after 9-11), but that in order to enjoy safety you have to pay for it. There's allot of well to do people all over the world that will come if we are covid free and can stay that way.
That also means cranking down on vacation rentals with way higher taxes and property assessments. They should pay commercial and not residential property and utility taxes , higher taxes will require higher rental fees. The strong like the larger big name and well backed hotel properties will survive, the ones that have been squeezing every drop of legal and illegal tourism dollars to break even won't. Companies like Aston and Outrigger will take a hit as will all the entire property management and real estate industry. No more 5-6 figure sales commissions. What people do for work will pivot just like where they are working from.
There will an abundance of both high density residential and commercial unoccupied properties available so construction will suffer but those trades will have to be re-directed perhaps in giant infrastructure improvements like rail. You'd be amazed at how businesses are living off on the rail dollar today. Working from home will be one of the biggest changes and benefits to hit oahu in decades. Potentially a traffic solver and a way for businesses to eliminate significant ongoing fixed costs. Every CEO employing thousands and hundreds of people downtown is thinking about this right now. The pivot and adaption forced by covid is changing the work/office paradigm for almost every large employer.
The ones that will suffer will be the large mainland investment REITS that have been buying up or constructing buildings here like hot cakes for decades. Allot of international Korean/Chineses development dollars funding those new Kakaako high rises. Howard Hughes and companies like that will be eating it not local companies or banks. It'll be the mega-banks on the mainland that willl see the defaults. Those who thought all we were was a cash machine or short term big return investment will soon find out that's not the case anymore. And believe me they sill starting dumping to get out, like all short term ROI thinkers do. The ones in it for the long haul will do what they need to rebuild.
Defaults here will be through local residential and business/commercial lending. Most mortgages are packaged and sold on Wallstreet so banks here won't take the hit like the wallstreet investors (circa 2008-2009). Insurance, taxes and service industry supply chain revenue here will dry up. The state(states) will start float allot of bonds to take advantage of its current bond rating before that sinks.
The only thing that will blow all this out of the water is another major natural disaster during the long recovery like a hurricane, volcano, tidal wave etc. And that's still a strong possibility, we're way over due for a direct hit like iniki.
What's going to happen here will be happening in different variances everywhere else. Nothing will be the same. For people to believe that it will is more hope than reality. Really need to plan ahead or you'll be in for a bad surprise.
It's amazing to see the difference in attitude and hope about what's actually happening here or going to happen here between those that live here and those that don't.
I live in a tourism reliant island as well under the US flag.
Make no mistake, there are still plenty of people with money to burn, and those are the best kind of tourists. Those people are itching to go somewhere when the dust settles. If HI stays closed off, people will choose to go elsewhere. They will also be looking at things like, how bad was COVID in the area they desire to travel. If it was not really a big deal, these areas will be even more enticing to those travelers.
The USVI is opening up on June 1st and we have only had 6 deaths and 70 or so confirmed cases. Contrary to what a lot of people think, there will be many who will take advantage of cheap flights, cheap hotels, discounted excursions, etc. Those places that are ready to capitalize on this will reap the rewards. Those places that continue to live in fear and drag their feet will suffer.
I have a feeling tourists will flock to the USVI and our warm temps, good protective measures in place, and locals ready for the economy to kick back into gear will get things going in the right direction again.
Make no mistake, there are still plenty of people with money to burn, and those are the best kind of tourists. Those people are itching to go somewhere when the dust settles. If HI stays closed off, people will choose to go elsewhere. They will also be looking at things like, how bad was COVID in the area they desire to travel. If it was not really a big deal, these areas will be even more enticing to those travelers.
The USVI is opening up on June 1st and we have only had 6 deaths and 70 or so confirmed cases. Contrary to what a lot of people think, there will be many who will take advantage of cheap flights, cheap hotels, discounted excursions, etc. Those places that are ready to capitalize on this will reap the rewards. Those places that continue to live in fear and drag their feet will suffer.
I have a feeling tourists will flock to the USVI and our warm temps, good protective measures in place, and locals ready for the economy to kick back into gear will get things going in the right direction again.
Barry Kanai'aupuni and myself grew up at 2500 Kalakaua Ave where the Foster Towers is today. "Queens" was just a quick jaunt across Kalakaua Ave then past the card and checkers playing table that were right at waters edge. Jumped off the sidewalk and onto the sand and paddled out over the submerged wall to the left of Queens break and into the line up. Every day. First break from Cunha's into Queens and then into Baby Queens and one could step off onto the sand and call it a day if you wanted to or grab a musubi or hot dog for 20 cents or a burger for 25 cents at the small to go shop under the big banyan tree at Kuhio Beach or walk home with your surfboard and go to dairy Queen and get a chocolate sundae for a quarter and watch the surfers at Queens for an hour and go back and surf again.
Sucks, to remember some 68 years ago on how it use to be ~ but then again, I got it at it's best moments ... perhaps.
I think I asked you this PPK, but you know my Uncle Donald Dupont right? He and BK were roommates back in the day, he was best man at Barry and Leslie's wedding. When I first met BK I was a dumb grom and didn't even know he surfed.
Froseith's, Kukea''s, Linds all big name players in the Waikiki Surf Club that was *right on the beach* and right next door was the "all you can eat for $1.00 lunch" The Waikiki Sands.CMBS could pose risks for some Hawaii's hotels & retail properties
CMBS. Not exactly a familiar acronym to most of us. It stands for collateralized mortgage-backed securities, which refers to the repackaging of the underlying mortgages beneath hotels, shopping malls, and other large properties to create securities which are then sold to investors, offering a...www.ilind.net
This may be of interest to you regarding the hotel situation.
Ian Lind has a daily blog and it can be interesting and informative. A former investigative reporter in Hawaii.
A bonus of following him is that his Father was one of the founders of the Waikiki Surf Club and he has some incredible photos from the early days of the WSC and Waikiki.
Yes. We all grew up together in those early Waikiki, Ala Moana, Makaha and north shore days of the late 1950's and 60's. If you see dat phucka, tell him Pope sends his Aloha.
My first balsa board was shaped by Barry. No one surfed Queens like Barry did.
No one!
looks like USVI and Hawaii will be racing each other for that "tourist safe zone" pot of gold
Best of luck there's enough of that rich and famous tourist dollar for both to succeed
just that our beaches aren't so sharky.. except around Oct/Nov for tigers
Our new COVID case rate has been in the single digits the latest was from a cluster of 7 in a low income housing project with a total of 17 deaths . Most people flagged positive are now okay about a 90% cured rate
Kauai hasn't had a case in a month
No care home incidents, the kupuna are very important here.
When people see this kind of stuff they can understand the terrible sacrifice
That's why "locked up locals" get so mad when they hear and see about violators especially from people that don't live here, who don't care.
If the number start rising again, , Hopefully everyone will know what to do
But we'll see
Elective procedures are open as are other businesses and freeway traffic is picking up
They'll open up inter island travel soon and that'll help boost the local economies and the shopping centers on oahu will open tomorrow. But its still shop and go home after being advice. The term "safer at home" is being used allot but in new york, that doesn't seem to be the case. Outside tourism will be on hold until it can be figured out. Should've patented my "hotel room key" idea, cause that's what they are trying now.
If the violation continue and new COVID cases from tourist keep appearing(there was one this weekend), I can see us eventually moving to ankle bracelets and quarantine violation down payments in the near future if this gets out of control. A 14 day quarantine, ankle bracelet and $5000 quarantine violation down payment/visitor will make allot of tourists think twice.
I think they will need cheap COVID shelter hotels for awhile for those worried about spreading it at home. Tom Friedman was talking about this this morning on CNBC. COVID safe housing hotels for the front line workers or those tested positive to stop the spread at home where clusters start.
I saw Donald at a wake for our freind about 8 years ago , he had some good stories
I wish the best for HI and I think this will be a great opportunity for those magical islands if its managed correctly with an eye to the future and sustainability.
Now is a great time for any island nation that relies on tourism as their main source of revenue to diversify. I think now more than ever, people see the value in sustainability. This not only benefits the place that is practicing sustainability, but its also marketable!
I have been deriving great satisfaction from generating a small income from our little farm and tree nursery. The demand has been incredible! We also have a side business of making coconut cream and milk which has proven to be quite popular and also gives me a very warm feeling because it is truly the ultimate business model for sustainability.
I hope so, but even if things are especially safe there, I think people are going to be reluctant to fly. I need to go some places in the States in the next month for work, and while flights are available, there are very few of them, and the reports I'm getting are that the flights are packed as a result. Not good. I've got a buddy that has to travel internationally, especially to London, and on his last flight back from London, there were only six passengers on the plane, all of whom got jacked up to business class. That's the flight I want, but that was almost a month ago, and I'm guessing the international carriers have cancelled a ton of their flights in order to fill the few planes that do fly.
I get the desire to minimize new COVID cases and the disdain for quarantine breakers. Also get that Hawaii is in a unique situation both geographically and economically than most of the mainland. But the civil rights aspect of detention, ankle bracelet monitoring and collateral deposits are pretty chilling and awful.
I think it'll go like this
If you can get tested and certified somehow before leaving and I think this is coming.
Then you will be golden
There will be allot of counterfeit certifications sold like there is licenses and illegal prescriptions
But many countries are already requiring this already (UAE, Thailand) for incoming visitors.
Otherwise you get tested once you get here and quarantined until the results come back
They are looking at (antibody) test results that can come back with in minutes or hours coming in the future
if positive you will have to quarantine for 14 days. The airlines probably won't let you back on to go home.
If you violate the 14 day quarantine, you'll get an ankle monitor and probably fined to pay for the bracelet. Kind of like here;
Louisville is forcing unwilling coronavirus patients to self-isolate. Is it right?
City officials have employed the use of court-ordered ankle bracelet monitoring for coronavirus patients who refuse to self-quarantine.
www.courier-journal.com
collateral deposits will cover the cost of shipping folks home if needed. You get it back if you don't get shipped home.
If a violator doesn't like it they can just go home on their own no bracelet, no down payment.
as far as rights
the courts have no problem shoving a gag in your mouth if you go off screaming during your court hearing even though that would be direct violation of your 1st amendment rights.
KInd of like screaming "fire" or "active shooter" in a crowded venue or "bomb" on a crowded plane.
Just words, but somehow public safety overrides your ability to just speak your mind. "freedom of speech"
I think everyone will adjust to the new "normal"
The flying fear/crowd part will be a challenge
maybe disposable tyvek flying outfits or arm/glove sleeves and a complete vinyl head bubbles you can hook up the the planes A/C like a PAPR. All provided by the airlines before you board. Skip the meals (except drinks), blankets, and entertainment systems and invest the money in cheap throwaway or re-usable once disinfected, PAPR outfits. If they can disinfect the plane interior and blankets, they can do the same for this stuff and repackage it like the blankets/pillows.
The bruddahs in kapaa already got a head start. $25 on sale today. local style COVID blocker
I wish we would grow hundreds of thousands acres of organic, outdoor grown weed (there's gotta be a market for the naturally grown as opposed to indoor) and sell it to the legal states year around. Fuck tourism. My business is built partially on tourism, I went to college from tourism, my mom fed us from tourism, I've worked in tourism, but Hawaii is so much better with less of it.
I'm thinking those sorts of infringements are going to be getting pretty thoroughly tested in the courts shortly. When that happens I don't think those policies will be left in place.I think it'll go like this
If you can get tested and certified somehow before leaving and I think this is coming.
Then you will be golden
There will be allot of counterfeit certifications sold like there is licenses and illegal prescriptions
But many countries are already requiring this already (UAE, Thailand) for incoming visitors.
Otherwise you get tested once you get here and quarantined until the results come back
They are looking at (antibody) test results that can come back with in minutes or hours coming in the future
if positive you will have to quarantine for 14 days. The airlines probably won't let you back on to go home.
If you violate the 14 day quarantine, you'll get an ankle monitor and probably fined to pay for the bracelet. Kind of like here;
Louisville is forcing unwilling coronavirus patients to self-isolate. Is it right?
City officials have employed the use of court-ordered ankle bracelet monitoring for coronavirus patients who refuse to self-quarantine.www.courier-journal.com
collateral deposits will cover the cost of shipping folks home if needed. You get it back if you don't get shipped home.
If a violator doesn't like it they can just go home on their own no bracelet, no down payment.
as far as rights
the courts have no problem shoving a gag in your mouth if you go off screaming during your court hearing even though that would be direct violation of your 1st amendment rights.
KInd of like screaming "fire" or "active shooter" in a crowded venue or "bomb" on a crowded plane.
Just words, but somehow public safety overrides your ability to just speak your mind. "freedom of speech"
Imagine reversing the situation. Anyone flying from Hawaii to the mainland or Alaska gets the same treatment. I don't think that'd be sustainable once we get past the panic stage either.