How’s the stock market?

[grapedrink]

If you plan on staying in your location for awhile or permanently, I'd say it is always smart to buy. You won't loose.

The people that will have their perspectives re-arranged eventually, are the speculators and airbnbr's. What population group do they expect to buy their house in the future? The numbers aren't there, and all the new people coming across the border, do you think they have the means to buy $2M house just east of the 405/5?


When I bought my house, rates were 7 percent, 20 percent down - Standard fair at the time...for a reason

If you buy in a desirable area and aren’t paying luxury prices you will probably do just fine in real estate. Demographic decline may be happening overall but there are plenty of areas seeing growth with strong migration trajectories. Invest there.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

This is not what caused this crisis. This crisis has been in the making for the past 10 years or so with interest rates remaining around ZERO for that 10 year period.

Well, yes.

I’ve tried to explain that kindergarten level concept here over the past year or so to no avail.

I tried to put it in terms everyone could understand, said that this is a drug addict economy addicted to low rates checking into rate hike detox that will become a prolonged economic crisis.

Still was told I’m “disasterbating” and “a nurse” on top of that and thus unqualified to seriously opine on the topic. Lol.

 

[Northern_Shores]

I never liked that QE crap, but the world will not end over some inflation and interest rates. Fairly basic stuff the money people would have learned in school. Still, just gotta stay on and find nice companies and HODL. It will never be all clear skies for investments and the best buys are done when Dr. Doom is on the front cover. Had our local Dr. Doom come out and called for a 40% market drop today. I could finally relax, because I then knew the worst is behind us.

Shitstonks, Tech trash and banks with no balance on the balance sheet will have a rough go at it. I've had two companies wiped out in just in 2 weeks and all my gains in 2023 are gone. One oil service company did a hellish refinance and the stupid pharma company ran out of money. I gotta manage my risk a little better. It's been all gas no brakes.

 

[PRCD]

Anyone starting to see the cracks in the damn - I have been saying for a year now on this site that Q1/Q2 were going to be one of the worst market corrections in my lifetime - while we are not there yet - things are starting to move in that direction. The Fed is trapped between the mandated 2-3% inflation rate goals and killing the economy. This will not end well.

Only VCs and other Uber-rich shysters who take our large amounts of debt as an inflation hedge are complaining about the Fed killing the economy by raising rates. The bottom 3/5ths of the wage pool need inflation controlled or they won’t be able to afford staples. The other option is price controls a different way-mandatory COLA.

The legitimacy of our entire system rests on the credibility of our monetary system. Little else legitimizes it.

 

[Sharkbiscuit]

Well, yes.

I’ve tried to explain that kindergarten level concept here over the past year or so to no avail.

I tried to put it in terms everyone could understand, said that this is a drug addict economy addicted to low rates checking into rate hike detox that will become a prolonged economic crisis.

Still was told I’m “disasterbating” and “a nurse” on top of that and thus unqualified to seriously opine on the topic. Lol.

Every time we ask you to put a date or a number on something you bail, and you've been banging this drum for well over a decade.

You keep trapflapping about bets. Last time someone put their money where their mouth is on the bear side on this board, I believe a bullish Mr. Doof called bullshit and came up on loot.

I never liked that QE crap, but the world will not end over some inflation and interest rates. Fairly basic stuff the money people would have learned in school. Still, just gotta stay on and find nice companies and HODL. It will never be all clear skies for investments and the best buys are done when Dr. Doom is on the front cover. Had our local Dr. Doom come out and called for a 40% market drop today. I could finally relax, because I then knew the worst is behind us.

Shitstonks, Tech trash and banks with no balance on the balance sheet will have a rough go at it. I've had two companies wiped out in just in 2 weeks and all my gains in 2023 are gone. One oil service company did a hellish refinance and the stupid pharma company ran out of money. I gotta manage my risk a little better. It's been all gas no brakes.

sweet and delicious bag of sugar you said you were up like 40-something percent March 3rd. How in the fuck did you fuck through 40-something percent in two fucking weeks? How fucking greedy can you be?

The S&P 500 is down is like 5% in the same timeframe you took almost a 50 point bath from Jan 1 2023 basis, and you want to say buying currency is gambling? Are you fucking brain dead? How in the fuck can someone in the oil patch fuck this one up? How in the fuck can a legal drug dealer run out of money?

 

[Autoprax]

I am often surprised because I like to think most people are good.

It doesn't take that many bad people to fuck sh!t up

 

[sdsrfr]

I am often surprised because I like to think most people are good.

this immediately comes to mind.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_economicus

 

[vanrysss]

someone doing the math

 

[casa_mugrienta]

I never liked that QE crap, but the world will not end over some inflation and interest rates. Fairly basic stuff the money people would have learned in school.

Except when you retirement account is being significantly eaten away via inflation over the course of a decade or more.

Which is a highly plausible scenario.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

The bottom 3/5ths of the wage pool need inflation controlled or they won’t be able to afford staples.

Yes. Per the most recent CPI, food inflation is still at 10%. Crazy.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Every time we ask you to put a date or a number on something you bail, and you've been banging this drum for well over a decade.

I must not be banging it loud enough because you still can't hear it a decade later.

Refer to @SlicedFeet 's post - can you hear his drum?

This sh!t does not happen overnight - economic declines tend to occur over years and decades.

It takes a while for the effects of policy to be felt to the point people wake up, and by then they're fucked.

 

[grapedrink]

Except when you retirement account is being significantly eaten away via inflation over the course of a decade or more.

Which is a highly plausible scenario.

What's your play for the next 10-20 years

 

[casa_mugrienta]

What's your play for the next 10-20 years

Adding on an additional 10 years for the coming decade lost, most likely.

 

[Northern_Shores]

Except when you retirement account is being significantly eaten away via inflation over the course of a decade or more.

Which is a highly plausible scenario.

You can't save for retirement in a bank account. Unless you earn a zillion dollars a month?

 

[PRCD]

You can't save for retirement in a bank account. Unless you earn a zillion dollars a month?

At this rate of inflation, you can’t save for retirement in a 401(k) either since Inflation is well in excess of historic rates of returns for index funds.

 

[grapedrink]

Adding on an additional 10 years for the coming decade lost, most likely.

Ok but what does your asset allocation look like

 

[casa_mugrienta]

At this rate of inflation, you can’t save for retirement in a 401(k) either since Inflation is well in excess of historic rates of returns for index funds.

And you're paying fees even when the account is losing.

Ok but what does your asset allocation look like

That's the real question.

You can't save for retirement in a bank account. Unless you earn a zillion dollars a month?

That's why I said retirement account.

 

[Northern_Shores]

I don't understand the view of you guys. By your reasoning we will all go broke and there will be no money for anyone? Nothing will have any positive return and inflation will be indefinite?

 

[lruc]

Shark , hate to use this line but , timing is everything . Last cycle my neighbor bought in 2000 , took her 17 years to break even . 5 years later its worth 3x .

 

[brukuns]

Something will have to be readjusted at some point, I don't see the current system sustaining itself as it is for another century. But these things take time, panties can be unbunched.