He's basing this on how home prices behave in the carnival environment of the era he grew up in.
The data pre-80s does not agree with him.
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***Official Real Estate Thread***
- Thread starter One-Off
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The data pre-80s does not agree with him.
This is the point I've been trying to make. The last quarter century was one of massive manipulation of asset prices like housing and the advent of MMT. The recent development is the Fed basically handing housing over to huge banks.
I hate to sound like a Ron Paul crank but we need to end the Fed.
Sigh. Several pages back I posted a graph showing the median home price over time from FRED in reply to Duffy, and it's about as consistent as it gets with a noticeable yet short dip in 2008-10ish.
Inventory is low because:
-we all need a place to live
-rent is going up
-new home construction has been below average for a decade
-supply and labor constraints makes new building prohibitively expensive and slow
-millennials are coming of baby making age, and now they want the 3/2 with a yard in the suburbs that they always despised
-institutional investment
But please- keep telling me how the Fed boogeymen and world event manipulators are more so to blame than all of the reasons listed above
Sure, but we are jaded because we live in a costly market. Lots of the country has plenty of homes in the sub $300-400k market.
Agreed. Which is even more of a reason to get your piece of the action as an arrow in your quiver.
I'm just providing the likely scenario under which the Fed gets control over inflation - we'd probably default.
We will face default or runaway inflation.
And if they do, so what? That allows people to get back in the game and they will be right back where they were in pre-covid days in a few years, and probably ahead of the recent peak in 5-10.
No. It's a screenshot showing several decades and only charts mean nationwide median price.
I didn't think so...
Posting the median home price simply going up doesn't mean much.
We're not debating the factors, we're debating their coefficients, or how large of a contribution each is making. What back-of-the-envelop math did you arrive at for each? For example, Black Rock has $10 trillion under mgmt, what percentage was used to buy SFHs x what quantity x what ASP? Now repeat for Millennial buyers. Now include population growth - the rate of which has been declining.Sigh. Several pages back I posted a graph showing the median home price over time from FRED in reply to Duffy, and it's about as consistent as it gets with a noticeable yet short dip in 2008-10ish.
Inventory is low because:
-we all need a place to live
new home construction has been below average for a decade
-supply and labor constraints makes new building prohibitively expensive and slow
-millennials are coming of baby making age, and now they want the 3/2 with a yard in the suburbs that they always despised
-institutional investment
But please- keep telling me how the Fed boogeymen and world event manipulators are more so than all of the reasons listed above
"We all need a place to live" is not an argument - it's a tautology. If rents AND home prices are both skyrocketing, there's really no trade-off to doing either if wages are not keeping pace and you can't afford a downpayment.
Until you come up with these coefficients, you're just making stuff up.
Can you give me some parameters on when I can bump this the way I bumped your Obama's Stasi enforcing a Marxist dictatorship post and we all laughed at it?
2-3% inflation, GDP growth similar range, U5 under 8%, no default on the debt, within the next 5 years?
The above interpretation looks at this through a lens of isolated short term trends.
You can basically blot the divergence of home prices and CPI against the Bretton Woods' agreements, the start of the CDS market, and MMT. Maybe they can keep the financial manipulation of home prices up forever, they just won't be able to find people to live in them. This is like the Highland Clearances writ huge.
Sure it does. It shows it was worth more than what you paid for it, which by definition makes it a worthwhile investment. Especially since you need a place to live, or you can collect rent in addition to equity.
That is a low IQ interpretation of the graph and you know better.
Sigh. The housing supply issue, lack of new builds, massive institutional investment, and millennial age distribution is all well documented.
If you want to prove the above wrong, go ahead. I’m not invested in this argument enough to waste my time googling.
Is it? How is something purchased at a lower price and sold at a higher price not a good investment?
Oh my bad that was HT.
My question still stands. When I can I bump this for great lolz? Are my params ingredients for crow in 5 years' time?