Inflation

npsp

Miki Dora status
Dec 30, 2003
4,236
3,805
113
down the hill and to the right
Visit site
This is what I've been getting at. I have all these home projects I'd like to do, but I'm not going to get started when the materials are up 100% or more. But the inflation is demand-driven? I can't see how, at least for most of us.
We're building an addition to our house. We put off buying lumber for many weeks. Thankfully, Keenfish :bowdown: is a good dude and kept us updated on lumber pricing and we were able to place our order at a low point before it shot back up. I owe Keen a nice bottle of wine.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,502
8,538
113
We're building an addition to our house. We put off buying lumber for many weeks. Thankfully, Keenfish :bowdown: is a good dude and kept us updated on lumber pricing and we were able to place our order at a low point before it shot back up. I owe Keen a nice bottle of wine.

but can keenfish save us from this?? (Huge if ‘yes’):
I suppose we could bet on this also. If you lose the bet, you will be consoled by paying in tomorrow’s dollars which are worth a lot less than today’s. Anyone want to bet a wheelbarrow of cash on the inflation rate 6 months from now?

Bloomebergs running articles on howto adjust to the new normal:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/the-inflation-pros-from-argentina-offer-tips-for-rattled-americans

I’m sure this is fine.
 

crustBrother

Kelly Slater status
Apr 23, 2001
9,078
5,159
113
Seems like a good time to cross fingers and max out the credit line on purchasing cash positive real estate rentals?

Or is it time to invest in soup cans and shotgun shells?

Fuckifiknow!
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,502
8,538
113
Seems like a good time to cross fingers and max out the credit line on purchasing cash positive real estate rentals?

Or is it time to invest in soup cans and shotgun shells?

Fuckifiknow!
Depends on your ability to service debt. A modest property is not a bad idea. Definitely buy beans and rice. Going to take a huge swing in ‘Merican testicular fortitude to make make ammo worth it. A huge chunk get mad

seems like we’re going to test the theory that deficits don’t matter:
Moar interesting takes:
I think real inflation is closer to 20%. Usually the government is lying by a factor of pI
 
Last edited:

StuAzole

Duke status
Jan 22, 2016
28,244
9,454
113
Depends on your ability to service debt. A modest property is not a bad idea. Definitely buy beans and rice. Going to take a huge swing in ‘Merican testicular fortitude to make make ammo worth it. A huge chunk get mad

seems like we’re going to test the theory that deficits don’t matter:
Moar interesting takes:
I think real inflation is closer to 20%. Usually the government is lying by a factor of pI
YOY comparisons to the end of a shock recession are hardly surprising.

but I’ll ask again - why is nobody discussing the inflationary impact of the Trump tariffs here? So weird that lumber etc would be so much more expensive now… Take THAT China!
 
  • Like
Reactions: afoaf and hammies

crustBrother

Kelly Slater status
Apr 23, 2001
9,078
5,159
113
why is nobody discussing the inflationary impact of the Trump tariffs here?
because those are insignificant when compared to the inflationary impact of the money printing that was happening while Trump was prez?

Value of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from August 2007 to December 2021 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

1640282703354.png
 

hal9000

Duke status
Jan 30, 2016
55,642
16,350
113
Urbana, Illinois
Bottom line is that all that money they are dumping into the economy out of thin air just devalues existing currency. Another way of thinking of it is as a tax increase without ever raising taxes.
this kind of undermines your "it's all Joe BIDEN's fault" premise, doesn't it?
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,252
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
But this would look fine if you just rescaled the y axis:
Excellent infographic but the year labels might be somewhat misleading. In a graphic like this, I'd expect a line that says 2000 or 2008 to mean Jan 1st of that year. But although HW/Clinton/W/Obama/Trump won the election in that year, the election was in late November and the inauguration was in late January of the following year. Add in the offset for the fiscal year and it's something of a lagging indicator relative to the budgets or unfortunately continuing resolutions a given President signed.