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10-year yield. #2996382
08/14/19 01:57 PM
08/14/19 01:57 PM
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hal9000 Offline OP
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"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996384
08/14/19 02:03 PM
08/14/19 02:03 PM
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If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.


"Do da chair know we goin' look like some punkass bitches?" - Poot Carr
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: Sharkbiscuit] #2996388
08/14/19 02:21 PM
08/14/19 02:21 PM
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Agree. Now that health care costs and college tuition rates have been contained I think inflation will start to recede. Also, consumer debt has been trending downwards steadily since that last little hiccup we had about 10 years ago. Since then regulators have gotten the derivatives markets under control and all those arrests after the financial crisis have really put the fear of baby Jesus into the algorithms running the trading floors.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: Sharkbiscuit] #2996394
08/14/19 02:32 PM
08/14/19 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.


"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: the janitor] #2996396
08/14/19 02:33 PM
08/14/19 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by the janitor
Agree. Now that health care costs and college tuition rates have been contained I think inflation will start to recede. Also, consumer debt has been trending downwards steadily since that last little hiccup we had about 10 years ago. Since then regulators have gotten the derivatives markets under control and all those arrests after the financial crisis have really put the fear of baby Jesus into the algorithms running the trading floors.



We also conquered the student loan debt problem. This economy will probably grow forever.


"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996399
08/14/19 02:38 PM
08/14/19 02:38 PM
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Trumby must be sh*tting himself more than usual.

The rest of America won't even notice because we've been basically living in a recession since 2005.


"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996409
08/14/19 03:03 PM
08/14/19 03:03 PM
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Thanks Obama Clinton.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996466
08/14/19 05:01 PM
08/14/19 05:01 PM
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treasury market is the real smart money. they know a shit storm is coming.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996507
08/14/19 05:58 PM
08/14/19 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism


My entire existence is a failed gotcha
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: ifallalot] #2996512
08/14/19 06:00 PM
08/14/19 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism

Historically false, take a look at the economy during robber baron era.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: ifallalot] #2996524
08/14/19 06:11 PM
08/14/19 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism


you don't think guardrails are warranted?


It’s like the GZA coming on after U-God
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996529
08/14/19 06:15 PM
08/14/19 06:15 PM
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You want a net when you walk the high wire called life?

Nets are for pussies!


incompetence is preferable to malice.
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996531
08/14/19 06:15 PM
08/14/19 06:15 PM
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Having regulations that the state doesn't enforce in a timely and effective manner is in some ways worse than having no regulations because of the uneven playing field it creates.


#sowhat
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: mundus] #2996538
08/14/19 06:22 PM
08/14/19 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by mundus
Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism

Historically false, take a look at the economy during robber baron era.

It was booming and allowed the US to become the world power it became. Next.


My entire existence is a failed gotcha
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: afoaf] #2996540
08/14/19 06:23 PM
08/14/19 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by afoaf
Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism


you don't think guardrails are warranted?

Some guardrails to prevent egregious thievery, yes. But the type of Fed control we see now? Its keeping us from a recession artificially and creating bigger bubbles


My entire existence is a failed gotcha
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: ifallalot] #2996548
08/14/19 06:30 PM
08/14/19 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by mundus
Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism

Historically false, take a look at the economy during robber baron era.

It was booming and allowed the US to become the world power it became. Next.

Massive bust and boom cycles disproving your assertions, move the goal posts much?

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: mundus] #2996550
08/14/19 06:32 PM
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The boom and bust cycles are no different than what we're seeing now, just that the busts are bigger

Boom and bust cycles are how things are supposed to work. Artifically staving off busts creates larger busts


My entire existence is a failed gotcha
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996578
08/14/19 06:51 PM
08/14/19 06:51 PM
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^^^ That's the way I see it. Extend and pretend not only exacerbates the resulting excesses - in both directions - but it also adds the moral hazard factor which prompts all the other participants at all levels to engage in the same irresponsible manner - also compounding the effect.

Stop trying to control the economy via Central Planning.


#sowhat
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996586
08/14/19 06:56 PM
08/14/19 06:56 PM
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yup. when '08 broke the American government bailed out wall street at the expense of America's future.

we received a credit fueled economic expansion that while long in duration has been anemic in upside.

the US govt. will never repay its debt in full. it does not have to. it will simply sell more treasuries.

average Americans though are up to their eyeballs in debt. consumers are tapped out.

and the Fed is left with its rate at 2.25% (after one cut already) when it was at 5.25% at the outset of the '08 easing cycle.

the only answer the Fed has is to cut rates but they're going to be at zero inside of a year if they enter a full rate cut cycle.

then what if we're in a recession or worse?

the answer is easy - we get to pay for wall street's sins in 2008 because wall street was never required to do so.

this is pitchforks in the street stuff.

Last edited by obslop; 08/14/19 06:58 PM.
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: ifallalot] #2996593
08/14/19 07:06 PM
08/14/19 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by mundus
Originally Posted by ifallalot
Originally Posted by hal9000
Originally Posted by Sharkbiscuit
If subprime commercial debt takes a shit you just might get your Blue Balls, I mean Blue Texas.

Nothing to worry about though. The financial system self-regulates, the hedge funds and investment banks would never over-leverage, and commercial real estate's fundamentals are strong. It's not like brick-and-mortar retail has been/will be getting its dick kicked in by Amazon or any of that.



Seriously. Everything is totally fine, especially now that we have regulations in place to prevent another 2007 financial meltdown.

Regulations prevent the market from working as it should and create worse bubbles than the natural up and down cycles we're supposed to see in capitalism

Historically false, take a look at the economy during robber baron era.

It was booming and allowed the US to become the world power it became. Next.

Oh, I thought it was slave labor and destroying world competition in a couple of wars.


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Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996615
08/14/19 07:51 PM
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trump watches the stock market religiously.

he fired off a bunch of tweets today an in attempt to prop the market.

market sold off on each tweet.

one tweet in particular referred to yield curve inversion and evidences that trump was ZERO concept as to what a yield curve is let alone what an inversion means or its implications for the economy.

guy is a straight up idiot.

Last edited by obslop; 08/14/19 07:51 PM.
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996625
08/14/19 08:05 PM
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Not only and idiot but straight up senile, I saw a little bit of him ranting incoherently at his latest rally.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: obslop] #2996643
08/14/19 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by obslop
trump watches the stock market religiously.

he fired off a bunch of tweets today an in attempt to prop the market.

market sold off on each tweet.

one tweet in particular referred to yield curve inversion and evidences that trump was ZERO concept as to what a yield curve is let alone what an inversion means or its implications for the economy.

guy is a straight up idiot.


was watching Fox Business at launch to get their spin on it. Complete Cheeto Propaganda. It was a "blame game" for them and the fed was their target just like Cheeto's tweet. corporate warning about tariff impacts in quarterly earnings call to them was "excuses"

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996645
08/14/19 08:40 PM
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Fox and Trump have a disgusting symbiotic relationship.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: stu dog] #2996651
08/14/19 08:53 PM
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Originally Posted by stu dog
Originally Posted by obslop
trump watches the stock market religiously.

he fired off a bunch of tweets today an in attempt to prop the market.

market sold off on each tweet.

one tweet in particular referred to yield curve inversion and evidences that trump was ZERO concept as to what a yield curve is let alone what an inversion means or its implications for the economy.

guy is a straight up idiot.


was watching Fox Business at launch to get their spin on it. Complete Cheeto Propaganda. It was a "blame game" for them and the fed was their target just like Cheeto's tweet. corporate warning about tariff impacts in quarterly earnings call to them was "excuses"


The Fed gave Trump his rally; the market will take it away.

Fed will enter damage control mode at next meeting September.

I'm not sure there is really much Fed can do at this point.

The charade is collapsing under its own weight.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996663
08/14/19 09:16 PM
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Dow down 800

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: obslop] #2996672
08/14/19 09:35 PM
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This isn't good, but this isn't a lock either.

Not every inverted yield curve has resulted in a recession/bear market.

I believe Berkshire Hathaway is HEAVILY invested in bank stocks still. So Warren Buffet is betting this isn't over yet.

At best I anticipate whippy action through to the fall with a buyable dip.

But then I have a ten year outlook.

If Trump would just shut the fvck up for awhile things would be easier.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996676
08/14/19 09:47 PM
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fair points GWS

this market has recovered from and rallied back above way worse than what happened today.

as long as S&P doesn't break December '18 low hope remains; still well above that level but small caps and financials have been underperforming the S&P for months now. that's not good.

Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996682
08/14/19 09:52 PM
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remember when Trumby promised 4-5% annual GDP growth?


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Re: 10-year yield. [Re: hal9000] #2996798
08/15/19 03:59 AM
08/15/19 03:59 AM
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Originally Posted by hal9000
remember when Trumby promised 4-5% annual GDP growth?

Are these the benefits of the tax cut confused2 Trickle down works, you just have to give it a chance shaka


You forgot it was STOLEN?!
Re: 10-year yield. [Re: obslop] #2996812
08/15/19 04:47 AM
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Originally Posted by obslop
trump watches the stock market religiously.

he fired off a bunch of tweets today an in attempt to prop the market.

market sold off on each tweet.

one tweet in particular referred to yield curve inversion and evidences that trump was ZERO concept as to what a yield curve is let alone what an inversion means or its implications for the economy.

guy is a straight up idiot.


Inverted Yield Curve occurs when...
Interest rates on short term bonds are higher than interest rates paid by long term bonds. What this means is that people are so worried about the near term future that they are piling into safer long-term investments. Stock market of course took a big dump. Tariffs not helping, and lowering interest rates a band-aid solution for a growing economic wound. Very concerning for recessionary fears in the future.

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