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Is Polling Dead? #2970196
06/19/19 11:34 AM
06/19/19 11:34 AM
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West of the Atlantic. East of...
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GromsDad Offline OP
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Quote
President Trump's campaign manager says polling is no longer reliable, days after a big leak of unflattering internal polling data.

"I just think the country is too complex now to call a couple hundred people and ask them what they think," Brad Parscale told CBS News hours ahead of Trump's event Tuesday evening in Orlando, Fla., to officially kick off his 2020 campaign.

"There are so many ways and different people who show up and vote now. The way turnout works now," he said. "The abilities we have now to turn out voters. The polling can't understand that. And that's why the polling was so wrong in 2016. It was 100% wrong. Nobody got it right — not one public poll. The reason why — it's not 1962 anymore."


Try to stay on track in this thread without getting into specific candidates or pissing contests about the president. What are your thoughts on the accuracy of polling in general in the year 2019.


“I always thank God I didn't go to film school because I would have learned that I couldn't be doing what I've been doing already.” - Bruce Brown,
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970197
06/19/19 11:41 AM
06/19/19 11:41 AM
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manbearpig Offline
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So polling is dead because they’re not favorable to trump at the moment?

You are a victim of government propaganda.

Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970200
06/19/19 11:57 AM
06/19/19 11:57 AM
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No, it’s not dead

It just needs to be taken with a grain of salt

What people say and what people do are two different things

Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970206
06/19/19 12:12 PM
06/19/19 12:12 PM
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hal9000 Offline
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Statisticians are pretty clear about this and acknowledge the fact that polling has a margin of error. You're not stumbling upon some amazing discovery.

File under: You don't know what you don't know.


"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: manbearpig] #2970219
06/19/19 12:48 PM
06/19/19 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by manbearpig
So polling is dead because they’re not favorable to trump at the moment?

You are a victim of government propaganda.


They sure fvcked up in 2016.

When I went to bed early on election night Hillary's chance of winning was anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%. According to the polls.

I woke up to President Elect Trump.

T'was a teeny tiny bit more than an error factor of +,- 3%


Last edited by i_shapes; 06/19/19 12:50 PM.

"fvck this country." - Frvcus
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970221
06/19/19 12:54 PM
06/19/19 12:54 PM
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Once again, for the purposes of this thread please try to keep your comments to the accuracy of polling in general in the year 2019.


“I always thank God I didn't go to film school because I would have learned that I couldn't be doing what I've been doing already.” - Bruce Brown,
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970227
06/19/19 01:25 PM
06/19/19 01:25 PM
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Here’s an example

Sex surveys are generally not very reliable

Women generally under-report their sluttiness even when anonymous

It’s the same with Trump supporters

Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970233
06/19/19 01:38 PM
06/19/19 01:38 PM
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I thought "polling" was gay code?


A threat response is a potent trigger for motivated reasoning.

"People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. . . . . They wake up and reanalyze things and change their mind. If you don't change your mind frequently, you're going to be wrong a lot."
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970237
06/19/19 01:42 PM
06/19/19 01:42 PM
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No dude. That guy just wanted your opinion.

You really didn't have to blow him.

dancing

Not that there is anything wrong with that...

J/K. I couldn't resist.

I'm going surfing.


"fvck this country." - Frvcus
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: BillyOcean] #2970238
06/19/19 01:43 PM
06/19/19 01:43 PM
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everysurfr Offline
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Originally Posted by BillyOcean
Here’s an example

Sex surveys are generally not very reliable

Women generally under-report their sluttiness even when anonymous

It’s the same with Trump supporters


OMG,

Billy are you ok? Trump supporters under report their sluttiness?


*** You are ignoring this user ***
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: i_shapes] #2970239
06/19/19 01:43 PM
06/19/19 01:43 PM
Joined: May 2009
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in the bathroom
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manbearpig Offline
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Originally Posted by i_shapes
Originally Posted by manbearpig
So polling is dead because they’re not favorable to trump at the moment?

You are a victim of government propaganda.


They sure fvcked up in 2016.

When I went to bed early on election night Hillary's chance of winning was anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%. According to the polls.

I woke up to President Elect Trump.

T'was a teeny tiny bit more than an error factor of +,- 3%


Oh for sure they’re largely fucked. I’ve pointed out polls are inaccurate often due to small sample sizes all the time.

My comment was more toward the trump groupies who didn’t want to see that at the time.

Now of course it’s the case when it’s coming directly from the White House.

Last edited by manbearpig; 06/19/19 01:44 PM.
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: everysurfr] #2970241
06/19/19 01:48 PM
06/19/19 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by everysurfr
Originally Posted by BillyOcean
Here’s an example

Sex surveys are generally not very reliable

Women generally under-report their sluttiness even when anonymous

It’s the same with Trump supporters


OMG,

Billy are you ok? Trump supporters under report their sluttiness?


No, trump supporters under report their support for trump

I guess that’s a form of sluttiness broadly speaking

Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: GromsDad] #2970245
06/19/19 01:58 PM
06/19/19 01:58 PM
Joined: Jan 2016
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hal9000 Offline
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Let's use logic here: If you don't like polls, don't read or listen to their results.


"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: i_shapes] #2970246
06/19/19 02:01 PM
06/19/19 02:01 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 29,291
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Originally Posted by i_shapes
No dude. That guy just wanted your opinion.

You really didn't have to blow him.

dancing

Not that there is anything wrong with that...

J/K. I couldn't resist.

I'm going surfing.


When has grossfatstupiddad ever wanted to hear an opinion?


A threat response is a potent trigger for motivated reasoning.

"People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. . . . . They wake up and reanalyze things and change their mind. If you don't change your mind frequently, you're going to be wrong a lot."
Re: Is Polling Dead? [Re: BillyOcean] #2970249
06/19/19 02:06 PM
06/19/19 02:06 PM
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 14,350
in the bathroom
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manbearpig Offline
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Originally Posted by BillyOcean
Originally Posted by everysurfr
Originally Posted by BillyOcean
Here’s an example

Sex surveys are generally not very reliable

Women generally under-report their sluttiness even when anonymous

It’s the same with Trump supporters


OMG,

Billy are you ok? Trump supporters under report their sluttiness?


No, trump supporters under report their support for trump

I guess that’s a form of sluttiness broadly speaking



Fantasy land shit.

What do you even base this on?

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