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#2909795 - 02/06/19 09:50 PM NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
casa_mugrienta Offline
Duke status
**

Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 17877
Loc: Kek Point
Looking ahead at the wind forecast for my upcoming trip, it's looking like strong (20kt) N/NE winds for much of the latter half of this month on the North Shore.

Does that mean it's pretty much a blowout? Or are there more variations on wind than what's seen in the forecasts? I'd consider cancelling my trip...
_________________________

"Lots of trigger points up the pooper.
If they are causing the problem, realeasing them will help
I tried to talk my PT into doing it." -Autoprax

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#2910287 - 02/07/19 05:05 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
oneula Offline
Michael Peterson status
**

Registered: 06/03/04
Posts: 2837
kind of unusual for n/nw winds to last for more than a couple days
I saw that sun/mon its w/nw/n winds.
gonna hit the high 50's in some parts

I love those winds
cold as sht but straight offshores at my home breaks
_________________________
waSUPcuz? shaka ala n da mooleh bulls..

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#2910714 - 02/08/19 01:32 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
Mr Doof Offline
Duke status
***

Registered: 01/23/02
Posts: 17409
Loc: San Francisco, CA
Oneula--->That 3-4 day forecast looks to bring some cold-for-Hawaii weather, but at that place you took me, I hope you get some good waves!

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#2910847 - 02/08/19 03:20 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: Mr Doof]
PPK96754 Offline
Michael Peterson status
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Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2114
Powerful winds and giant surf due for the weekend
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/02/07/powerful-winds-giant-surf-due-weekend/


If THIS, is your weekend of travel.

Gusty N / NE trades blowing this AM on Kauai's north shore which is supposed to switch later on today at some time to Northerly, then hard north westerlies through the weekend. With large surf conditions also in the mix, it's going to be a better time at The Fun Factory or Kiddie Land.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC

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#2910865 - 02/08/19 03:47 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: PPK96754]
PPK96754 Offline
Michael Peterson status
***

Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2114
000
WWHW80 PHFO 080147
SPSHFO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019

HIZ001>028-081500-
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019

...VERY STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE LOW
WILL SEND A POWERFUL SWELL TOWARD THE ISLANDS THAT WILL IMPACT
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH VERY HIGH SURF.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SURF
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING THAT
COULD LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE, ROAD CLOSURES AND BEACH EROSION.

THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS, BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER RIDGES
AND MOUNTAINTOPS, THEY WILL ALSO ACCELERATE DOWNSLOPE, IMPACTING
HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS.

IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND, BE PREPARED FOR VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS. IF YOUR PLANS INCLUDE MARINE ACTIVITIES, YOU MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING THEM.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC

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#2910868 - 02/08/19 03:49 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: PPK96754]
PPK96754 Offline
Michael Peterson status
***

Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2114
SURF: Rising to 20 to 30 feet today, 25 to 35 feet Saturday, and 40 to 60 feet Sunday along north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai and Maui. Also, rising to 15 to 20 feet today, 18 to 25 feet Saturday, and 30 to 40 feet Sunday along exposed west facing shores of Oahu and Molokai.
TIMING: Through this weekend.
IMPACTS: Extreme...Expect ocean water surging and sweeping over beaches, coastal benches, lava flows, and roadways, creating the potential for significant damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Coastal evacuations and road closures are possible. Large breaking waves may affect harbor entrances and channels with significant damage possible to docks, piers, ramps, and boats.
Instructions: These dangerous conditions mean that only highly experienced persons should enter the water. Inexperienced persons should remain off beaches and adjacent beachfront areas. Large breaking surf, significant shorebreak, and dangerous currents make entering the water very hazardous. Anyone entering the water could face significant injury or death.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC

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#2910882 - 02/08/19 03:59 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
Mr Doof Offline
Duke status
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Registered: 01/23/02
Posts: 17409
Loc: San Francisco, CA
^- Yikes!

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#2910888 - 02/08/19 04:02 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
Sharkbiscuit Online   content
Phil Edwards status
**

Registered: 08/06/03
Posts: 6434
Loc: Jacksonville Beach
Wasn't there a recent circus season with lots of NNE and it piled up sand in certain spots and made good right hand runners?

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#2910964 - 02/08/19 06:00 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
acnjusa Offline
Michael Peterson status
*

Registered: 11/10/15
Posts: 2446
careful at the bridge near the army camp where the boards blow off.

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#2911032 - 02/08/19 09:16 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
oneula Offline
Michael Peterson status
**

Registered: 06/03/04
Posts: 2837
wrap!
_________________________
waSUPcuz? shaka ala n da mooleh bulls..

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#2911054 - 02/08/19 11:39 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
casa_mugrienta Offline
Duke status
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Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 17877
Loc: Kek Point
my travel time is still a little ways off... feb 15-25

I never trust a wind forecast more than 3 days out, but when i see a pattern develop in a long range forecast i begin to get concerned.
_________________________

"Lots of trigger points up the pooper.
If they are causing the problem, realeasing them will help
I tried to talk my PT into doing it." -Autoprax

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#2911089 - 02/09/19 04:15 AM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
goingout Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
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Registered: 03/07/16
Posts: 295
Originally Posted By: casa_mugrienta
my travel time is still a little ways off... feb 15-25

I never trust a wind forecast more than 3 days out, but when i see a pattern develop in a long range forecast i begin to get concerned.



This is a bit tricky situation, NWS has north to northwest to west winds till the end of their 7 day zone forecast, even though the winds are to be lighter on Fri. Feb. 15th at 10mph. +/-

As we all know the wind is the hardest to forecast which could work in your favor if model forecast are wrong about the winds and wind dir.

Would be better if you had one more week of time to let this current system work it's way out.

The long term forecast could change, one has to monitor it day by day. I have seen these west wind events before, one has to hunt down a spot that might be rideable, usually not the north shore though, it don't like west winds.

The paddle out is usually easy and the paddle in is a head down and keep paddling affair.


....I am goingoutside now....storm surf...what fun!

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#2911152 - 02/09/19 10:34 AM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: goingout]
PPK96754 Offline
Michael Peterson status
***

Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2114
Not much rain throughout Friday evening, a few quick, light splashes into the early AM hours but the wind blew all night steady, 15 - 20 from the "local gauges" spread out around Kauai's north shore areas that are available to observe. Winds @ 17 mph, Temps 62* / 63* @ 0530 hrs on Saturday morning.

Easy peasy without the rain, but a bit cool for local folks ~



Hourly Forecast for Today, Saturday 02/09

Today 02/09 10% / 0 in
Windy. Cloudy skies will become mostly sunny this afternoon. High around 70F. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph.


Tonight 02/09 70% / 0.09 in
Rain showers along with windy conditions. Low 61F. Winds WNW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Higher wind gusts possible

www.windy.com is a pretty good app
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC

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#2911550 - 02/10/19 03:01 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: PPK96754]
PPK96754 Offline
Michael Peterson status
***

Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2114
Sunday AM
sustained winds at the beach in Kalihiwai 15 - 25 MPH / gusts 40 - 53+ MPH
no rain .... just Windy as hell
Hanalei Lifeguards report 40+ foot waves outside the Bay at Kings.
Surf all over the place and crawling up the beaches.
Powerlines down / arching in Princeville & on the way out to the Kilauea Lighthouse
weeeeeeee!

Just in @1019hrs ...
A tree has fallen on a vehicle in the PineTree's parking lot entrapping occupants. Lifeguards on scene reporting no injuries to occupants, only car damage. roflmao
It was howling at PTreee's last night. 58* on the beach, windchill 53* / 54*
Kind of like the ramp up to hurrincane Iniki ~
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC

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#2911622 - 02/10/19 04:26 PM Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? [Re: casa_mugrienta]
casa_mugrienta Offline
Duke status
**

Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 17877
Loc: Kek Point
LONG TERM ANALYSIS (NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND) updated 2/10/19 11:00

NORTH EXPOSURES - Most of next week well see dominant, and medium to large, N to NE swell and continued cool, somewhat unsettled weather. Complex forecast outside 2-3 days as some models have that Kona low drifting NE of Hawaii, then potentially U-turing back toward the islands midweek. Whereas, the crowd pleasing GFS model has the low tracking further into the eastern Pacific.

Thus, definitely some uncertainty with swell/winds but confidence is higher that we'll see a fresh shot of NE swell whipping back to Hawaii Wednesday. This will also come with breezy NE winds for the second half of the week. Thus, conditions (and swell) is looking unfavorable at this time. Lot can change from run-to-run, even day-to-day, but another poor week of surf looks possible for Hawaii. Stay tuned, well refine details over next couple updates."
_________________________

"Lots of trigger points up the pooper.
If they are causing the problem, realeasing them will help
I tried to talk my PT into doing it." -Autoprax

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