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#2910847 - 02/08/19 03:20 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: Mr Doof]
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Michael Peterson status
 
Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2113
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Powerful winds and giant surf due for the weekend http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/02/07/powerful-winds-giant-surf-due-weekend/If THIS, is your weekend of travel. Gusty N / NE trades blowing this AM on Kauai's north shore which is supposed to switch later on today at some time to Northerly, then hard north westerlies through the weekend. With large surf conditions also in the mix, it's going to be a better time at The Fun Factory or Kiddie Land.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC
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#2910865 - 02/08/19 03:47 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: PPK96754]
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Michael Peterson status
 
Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2113
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000 WWHW80 PHFO 080147 SPSHFO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019
HIZ001>028-081500- NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS- OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU- OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD- MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE- MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY- WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA- SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA- BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS- 347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019
...VERY STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE LOW WILL SEND A POWERFUL SWELL TOWARD THE ISLANDS THAT WILL IMPACT EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH VERY HIGH SURF. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING THAT COULD LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE, ROAD CLOSURES AND BEACH EROSION.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER RIDGES AND MOUNTAINTOPS, THEY WILL ALSO ACCELERATE DOWNSLOPE, IMPACTING HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND, BE PREPARED FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. IF YOUR PLANS INCLUDE MARINE ACTIVITIES, YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING THEM.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC
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#2910868 - 02/08/19 03:49 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: PPK96754]
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Michael Peterson status
 
Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2113
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SURF: Rising to 20 to 30 feet today, 25 to 35 feet Saturday, and 40 to 60 feet Sunday along north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai and Maui. Also, rising to 15 to 20 feet today, 18 to 25 feet Saturday, and 30 to 40 feet Sunday along exposed west facing shores of Oahu and Molokai. TIMING: Through this weekend. IMPACTS: Extreme...Expect ocean water surging and sweeping over beaches, coastal benches, lava flows, and roadways, creating the potential for significant damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Coastal evacuations and road closures are possible. Large breaking waves may affect harbor entrances and channels with significant damage possible to docks, piers, ramps, and boats. Instructions: These dangerous conditions mean that only highly experienced persons should enter the water. Inexperienced persons should remain off beaches and adjacent beachfront areas. Large breaking surf, significant shorebreak, and dangerous currents make entering the water very hazardous. Anyone entering the water could face significant injury or death.
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC
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#2910882 - 02/08/19 03:59 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: casa_mugrienta]
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Duke status
 
Registered: 01/23/02
Posts: 17406
Loc: San Francisco, CA
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#2911089 - 02/09/19 04:15 AM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: casa_mugrienta]
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Legend (inyourownmind)

Registered: 03/07/16
Posts: 295
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my travel time is still a little ways off... feb 15-25
I never trust a wind forecast more than 3 days out, but when i see a pattern develop in a long range forecast i begin to get concerned.
This is a bit tricky situation, NWS has north to northwest to west winds till the end of their 7 day zone forecast, even though the winds are to be lighter on Fri. Feb. 15th at 10mph. +/- As we all know the wind is the hardest to forecast which could work in your favor if model forecast are wrong about the winds and wind dir. Would be better if you had one more week of time to let this current system work it's way out. The long term forecast could change, one has to monitor it day by day. I have seen these west wind events before, one has to hunt down a spot that might be rideable, usually not the north shore though, it don't like west winds. The paddle out is usually easy and the paddle in is a head down and keep paddling affair. ....I am goingoutside now....storm surf...what fun!
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#2911152 - 02/09/19 10:34 AM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: goingout]
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Michael Peterson status
 
Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2113
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Not much rain throughout Friday evening, a few quick, light splashes into the early AM hours but the wind blew all night steady, 15 - 20 from the "local gauges" spread out around Kauai's north shore areas that are available to observe. Winds @ 17 mph, Temps 62* / 63* @ 0530 hrs on Saturday morning. Easy peasy without the rain, but a bit cool for local folks ~ Hourly Forecast for Today, Saturday 02/09 Today 02/09 10% / 0 in Windy. Cloudy skies will become mostly sunny this afternoon. High around 70F. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph. Tonight 02/09 70% / 0.09 in Rain showers along with windy conditions. Low 61F. Winds WNW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Higher wind gusts possible www.windy.com is a pretty good app
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC
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#2911550 - 02/10/19 03:01 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: PPK96754]
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Michael Peterson status
 
Registered: 04/14/15
Posts: 2113
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Sunday AM sustained winds at the beach in Kalihiwai 15 - 25 MPH / gusts 40 - 53+ MPH no rain .... just Windy as hell Hanalei Lifeguards report 40+ foot waves outside the Bay at Kings. Surf all over the place and crawling up the beaches. Powerlines down / arching in Princeville & on the way out to the Kilauea Lighthouse weeeeeeee! Just in @1019hrs ... A tree has fallen on a vehicle in the PineTree's parking lot entrapping occupants. Lifeguards on scene reporting no injuries to occupants, only car damage. It was howling at PTreee's last night. 58* on the beach, windchill 53* / 54* Kind of like the ramp up to hurrincane Iniki ~
_________________________
It's just you, and your ability to paddle and surf - catching & riding waves is all on you, period ~ ~ ~ MitchellC
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#2911622 - 02/10/19 04:26 PM
Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?
[Re: casa_mugrienta]
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Duke status

Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 17827
Loc: Kek Point
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LONG TERM ANALYSIS (NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND) updated 2/10/19 11:00
NORTH EXPOSURES - Most of next week we’ll see dominant, and medium to large, N to NE swell and continued cool, somewhat unsettled weather. Complex forecast outside 2-3 days as some models have that Kona low drifting NE of Hawaii, then potentially U-turing back toward the islands midweek. Whereas, the crowd pleasing GFS model has the low tracking further into the eastern Pacific.
Thus, definitely some uncertainty with swell/winds but confidence is higher that we'll see a fresh shot of NE swell whipping back to Hawaii Wednesday. This will also come with breezy NE winds for the second half of the week. Thus, conditions (and swell) is looking unfavorable at this time. Lot can change from run-to-run, even day-to-day, but another poor week of surf looks possible for Hawaii. Stay tuned, we’ll refine details over next couple updates."
_________________________
"Lots of trigger points up the pooper. If they are causing the problem, realeasing them will help I tried to talk my PT into doing it." -Autoprax
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