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#2895166 - 01/07/19 04:43 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: GDaddy]
stu dog Online   content
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Originally Posted By: GDaddy
If they're 6% of the population in this state it's probably more in the urban areas. They're all living somewhere.

With respect to redevelopment trends one disconnect I see is that when a property that is improved with (let's say) a 4-plex of 1bd units gets redeveloped, it doesn't get replaced with 1bd units. It gets replaced with much larger 2bd and 3bd units. We end up with a an ongoing *reduction* of the number of entry level units when what we probably need more of are the really small studios and 1bd units.


or update the requirement that 10-20% of new buildings have to have affordable units. that ends up being about 1 unit in new building that's renting 2 bedrooms for $4K/month. The take away I got from KCRW's pretty extensive month long reporting this summer on housing is rents are going up like crazy mostly due to the tech industry coming to LA (Amazon, Google, SnapChat, etc) with higher paying salaries pushing out middle income renters & families from the urban core. combined with an overall low supply. now those lower income people are pushed way out to suburbs & beyond having to commute 2hrs nearly one way each day.

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#2895170 - 01/07/19 04:45 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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I'm finding more and more in the encampments I ride through that I'm seeing lots of upper middle aged men and women (late 50's to early 70's) who look less like your typical addict or unmedicated psych patient and more like people who are down on their luck and were living paycheck to paycheck and fell out of the job market without a safety net. Sad times. Lots of things are contributing to this problem. It's a shame that people on both sides of the political spectrum don't seem particularly interested in addressing this is issue beyond pointing fingers.
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#2895249 - 01/07/19 06:41 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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As I say, the thing that concerns me is that most projects are replacing smaller units with much larger units. Which, that's a no-brainer for a developer.

Seeing as how they now want to increase densities in the residential neighborhoods that might be an opportunity to *limit* the accessory dwelling units in these single family neighborhoods to more basic housing and smaller units that will have less impact on their neighborhoods and services. Spread the 1-2 person households around more instead of concentrating them in the oldest neighborhoods.

That way we could replace more of the studio and 1bd units in these areas without interfering with the other redevelopment trends that are driven by the market. A compromise of sorts.

Region-wide, we need way more of the entry level units than we need of the "luxury" units.

I'd like to see the City develop some stock plans for these ADUs and maybe cut their approval and development fees as a means of encouraging their development. There's nothing wrong with an apartment over garage setup and then add another parking space or two to the side between the main structure and the garage on parcels that have those dimensions.
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#2895287 - 01/07/19 08:14 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: GDaddy]
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Originally Posted By: GDaddy
I didn't say that. At all. What I'm saying is that if you reduced the population by 5% that would be of effect on rents. And schools. And services. And other vital resources.

I was doing some work for a non-profit in So Central last year and the director told me that the homeless population in that area had increased by over 20% in the previous year. That doesn't imply to me an increase in crazy people.


Being homeless makes you crazy.

(Compromises decision making)
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#2895301 - 01/07/19 08:39 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: GDaddy]
RWVBWL Offline
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Registered: 04/14/15
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Originally Posted By: GDaddy
<snip>
There's nothing wrong with an apartment over garage setup and then add another parking space or two to the side between the main structure and the garage on parcels that have those dimensions.


^^^ This!
I've always felt this too,
there was nothin' wrong with havin' a converted garage/apartment above it for a Family member to continue to live on your property, but it always seemed that local L.A. cities didn't like it. Same in your neck ot thee woods? See ya. smile

PS ~ Apology's as I miss~construed your earlier post...
wave2

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#2895304 - 01/07/19 08:52 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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I was reading a few weeks back that some town in Wisconsin or Michigan (I forget which) had just opened up their residential zoning code to allow what is basically a medium density on all lots previously zoned for single family. No onsite parking required. TO ME that seems excessive. It's one thing if you can keep at least half of the additional cars onsite, but totally another if they're diverting them all to the street. By the time the get households doubling up in occupancy they're going to end up with a lot more street parking than they think.

It's ironic that they're characterizing it in terms of social justice and equal access to services because when it comes to new units replacing old units it's going to end up being (for example) 4 have-nots being displaced by 8-12 have-somes.

The demographics of the outlying communities have changed a lot in the last 20 years as the urban poor get pushed out and away from the employment, transportation and services hubs.
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#2895306 - 01/07/19 08:56 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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They def need to make more low income housing. Every new apartment building going up has 2,000 studios and 3,000 one bedrooms. Alot of them seem relatively empty too.

As a person making a decent living even by LA standards - I would never pay that much for a one bedroom apartment. I pay 2,000 now for a very average old mediocre apartment in Hollywood and already feel like that s way to much for what Im getting and where its at but I also refuse to commute though so part of its on me for sure. Cheaper shit in Noho and the valley is available.

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#2895328 - 01/07/19 09:36 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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is the answer low income housing...or limiting/taxing/who knows? the psychotic amount of income properties?

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#2895330 - 01/07/19 09:56 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: GDaddy]
Duffy Offline
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Originally Posted By: GDaddy
At this point the working poor are literally getting priced out of their apartments. Most people are spending much larger percentages of their income on housing than they were even 10 years ago. Not just in LA proper, but everywhere in the region.

Typical rents for 1bd apartments in So Central Los Angeles in 2005 were in the $500-$600 range for the older units. As of this morning in Craigslist, the lowest priced 1bd is listed for $1100, and there's only the one listing at that price. The majority of 1bd units start at $1275/mo and go from there. So rents have easily doubled in the least desirable part of town. There's nothing we can do with incomes that would keep pace.


1. Almost all of these homeless people ar not working.

2. Those rent prices you see are the advertised price. Nobody is getting $1275/month for a one bedroom in SCLA.

I have a 1 bedroom unit that I rent out in Santa Barbara for not much more than that.

No way South Central rents are anywhere near what Santa Barbara rents are. No way.


Edited by Duffy (01/07/19 09:57 PM)
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#2895332 - 01/07/19 10:00 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: 20W-50 and blood]
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Originally Posted By: 20W-50 and blood
is the answer low income housing...or limiting/taxing/who knows? the psychotic amount of income properties?


Or, you know, you could move to a more affordable area....
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#2895340 - 01/07/19 10:15 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: GDaddy]
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Originally Posted By: GDaddy
If they're 6% of the population in this state it's probably more in the urban areas. They're all living somewhere.

With respect to redevelopment trends one disconnect I see is that when a property that is improved with (let's say) a 4-plex of 1bd units gets redeveloped, it doesn't get replaced with 1bd units. It gets replaced with much larger 2bd and 3bd units. We end up with a an ongoing *reduction* of the number of entry level units when what we probably need more of are the really small studios and 1bd units.


see that all over oceanside.

demo the apartment complex and throw down million dollar + townhome/condos.

it is going to take some work but i bet if the city of oceanside really tries their hardest they can make the area by the pier as disgusting as HB in 20 years.
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#2895343 - 01/07/19 10:21 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: thrillkicker]
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of relevance:

James Stack, who predicted the 2008 real estate crash and nailed last years housing slowdown with uncanny timing, is back with some bad news for 2019.

Housing could be heading for its worst year since the last housing crash," Stack, 67, said in a phone interview. Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend in the next 12-plus months. And theres a significant downside risk to housing prices if a recession takes hold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rst-yet-to-come
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#2895349 - 01/07/19 10:36 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: obslop]
Duffy Offline
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Registered: 04/27/16
Posts: 5376
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Originally Posted By: obslop
of relevance:

James Stack, who predicted the 2008 real estate crash and nailed last years housing slowdown with uncanny timing, is back with some bad news for 2019.

Housing could be heading for its worst year since the last housing crash," Stack, 67, said in a phone interview. Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend in the next 12-plus months. And theres a significant downside risk to housing prices if a recession takes hold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rst-yet-to-come



So housing will get cheaper.

Good news for the homeless!!!!*







*except for the fact that most homeless people are not that way because of housing prices....
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#2895357 - 01/07/19 11:03 PM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: obslop]
grapedrink Offline
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Registered: 05/21/11
Posts: 6137
Loc: A Beach
Originally Posted By: obslop
of relevance:

James Stack, who predicted the 2008 real estate crash and nailed last years housing slowdown with uncanny timing, is back with some bad news for 2019.

Housing could be heading for its worst year since the last housing crash," Stack, 67, said in a phone interview. Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend in the next 12-plus months. And theres a significant downside risk to housing prices if a recession takes hold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rst-yet-to-come


SFRs are still outrageous around these parts, although there are a lot of condos and duplexes on the market and prices have been flat to slightly declining through 2018. Many of which are within the same developments with the same floorplans, including many that are less than 5 years old. Usually the first shoe to drop and the last to recover. Glad I didn't go the condo route drowning
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#2895419 - 01/08/19 08:33 AM Re: Do you love L.A as much as I do? [Re: Duffy]
ko25ok Offline
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Registered: 08/13/15
Posts: 150
Originally Posted By: Duffy
Originally Posted By: 20W-50 and blood
is the answer low income housing...or limiting/taxing/who knows? the psychotic amount of income properties?


Or, you know, you could move to a more affordable area....


THIS

Ill never understand not moving to a more affordable area.

My entire family is from Hawaii and Im fortunate enough right now to still live here and am doing okay. If things started to get tonight and I started to really feel the the effects of the INSANE cost of living than Id be gone and moved to the mainland in a second. Wouldnt even ever consider my family living in the projects or homeless on the beach.

Why people arent willing to be more mobile is beyond me.

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