REMINDER: Siteowner has no obligation to monitor the Forums. However, Siteowner reserves the right to review the Materials submitted to or posted on the Forums, and remove, delete, redact or otherwise modify such Materials, in its sole discretion and for any reason whatsoever, at any time and from time to time, without notice or further obligation to you. Siteowner has no obligation to display or post any Materials provided by you. Siteowner reserves the right to disclose, at any time and from time to time, any information or Materials that Siteowner deems necessary or appropriate to satisfy any applicable law, regulation, contract obligation, legal or dispute process or government request. To further read the rules and terms of agreement of this Forum, click here.

Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Page 148 of 179 1 2 146 147 148 149 150 178 179
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2441838
01/06/16 11:25 PM
01/06/16 11:25 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
S
strawkins Offline
Gerry Lopez status
strawkins  Offline
Gerry Lopez status
***
S

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
And many models (not all) are picking up on an extended bout of activity in the Pac basin/ inactivity in the IO that either indicates a stickiness to the MJO or the resumption of ENSO as the primary driver of activity.



Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2441840
01/06/16 11:33 PM
01/06/16 11:33 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
S
strawkins Offline
Gerry Lopez status
strawkins  Offline
Gerry Lopez status
***
S

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz







Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2441844
01/06/16 11:54 PM
01/06/16 11:54 PM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
B
big_B Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
big_B  Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
*****
B

Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
There was a tornado warned storm on the outskirts of northern La Jolla, CA (SD county) around 3pm Jan 6th. It has since been downgraded to a severe thunder storm warning and shifted off to the east, as shown below. My mom went to Jr high in La Jolla back in the mid 60's. She still goes down there to visit friends every now and then. I used to go with her when I was kid and take advantage of the summer surf. La Jolla is a beautiful place.


Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: big_B] #2441992
01/07/16 05:45 AM
01/07/16 05:45 AM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,905
Oceanside,CA
S
Surfdog Offline
Tom Curren status
Surfdog  Offline
Tom Curren status
**
S

Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,905
Oceanside,CA
Originally Posted By: big_B
There was a tornado warned storm on the outskirts of northern La Jolla, CA (SD county) around 3pm Jan 6th. It has since been downgraded to a severe thunder storm warning and shifted off to the east, as shown below. My mom went to Jr high in La Jolla back in the mid 60's. She still goes down there to visit friends every now and then. I used to go with her when I was kid and take advantage of the summer surf. La Jolla is a beautiful place.



I was watching the Doppler radar right around that tornado warning time. There looked to be a definitive yellow/orange swirl just east of San Clemente island heading towards the Del Mar/La Jolla area. Looked like a classic tornado signature, and probably a waterspout, at least for a while. I guess it dissipated just before reaching shore. Here in inland O'side, we had 2 solid thunderstorm type dumpings around the same time yesterday and today (2-2:30pm give or take).

I know when we get a real solid rain, when my front yard drainage dip gets filled with water because it can't drain fast enough. A tree root blocks it a bit and slows it down, causing a mini pond for a while, until it soaks in or drains off. We get those at least a few times a "normal" winter, but nice to see it 2 days in a row. We're getting there, and need a few more like these last couple days. Bring it.


Surf 'em if you got 'em
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: big_B] #2442089
01/07/16 04:35 PM
01/07/16 04:35 PM
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 367
San Diego
B
BajaBoojum Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
BajaBoojum  Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
**
B

Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 367
San Diego
Drove through that cell yesterday heading back home on the 5! Pretty epic!! Was thinking there would be some hail but didn't happen. Nice rivers of mud flowing down the sides of the freeway though.

Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: mayor1] #2442150
01/07/16 06:38 PM
01/07/16 06:38 PM
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 582
Carpinteria
0
00H8R Offline
Nep status
00H8R  Offline
Nep status
**
0

Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 582
Carpinteria
7 or 8am on the 6th in Carpinteria we had only what i can assume is a micro-burst. Wind and rain blowing laterally like it was coming out of a jet engine. It basically looked like a white-out but with rain instead of snow. The wind speed was shocking.

Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: 00H8R] #2442257
01/07/16 09:37 PM
01/07/16 09:37 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
S
strawkins Offline
Gerry Lopez status
strawkins  Offline
Gerry Lopez status
***
S

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
Well now HERE is an interesting graph. This shows rainfall totals by percentage through the Fall/Winter of each of the top 5 El Ninos that we have in the records.

Data Source: California-Nevada Climate Applications Program

TAKEAWAYS:

1) We are more or less caught up with 97-98 rainfall. I hope that puts things in perspective for certain people who have been Negative Nancys for a while now shrug

2) 3 of the 5 events reach the exact same precipitation totals by mid January. And generally speaking, February and March were by far the blockbuster months for the top 3 events.

3) Every El Nino in this subset had a bit of a flat-line during the transition from Fall to Winter, but these happened at different times.

4) 82-83 had an incredible, almost complete flat-lining of precipitation from late December to around January 18th. However it was still the heaviest rain of any El Nino on record.

5) 65-66 started off great, racking up over 50% of precip by early January due to an incredible storm track from late December to Early January, but basically shut out after that, ending the year with only 83% of normal!

6) 57-58 rainfall ends pretty close to 97-98 rainfall almost entirely due to a late-season rush of precipitation in the early April period.



Last edited by strawkins; 01/07/16 10:19 PM.
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2442320
01/07/16 11:15 PM
01/07/16 11:15 PM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
B
big_B Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
big_B  Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
*****
B

Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara received 3.6-4+" of rain during the last 72 hrs, with the mountains pulling in 4.5-4.7". Now this isn't record setting, but it's pretty solid for a 72 hr total.

Now... The surf... Oh the surf... Santa Barbara (well a certain spot in SB) was as epic as it gets. The best since hurricane Marie. The river of a current and the crowd sucked, but the barrels... Based on the half dozen photogs scattered along the beach, and several more in the lineup, some good footage is bound to come out within the next few weeks.


Last edited by big_B; 01/07/16 11:24 PM.
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: big_B] #2442323
01/07/16 11:18 PM
01/07/16 11:18 PM
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 10,554
Goleta
B
Boneroni Offline
Tom Curren status
Boneroni  Offline
Tom Curren status
**
B

Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 10,554
Goleta
Originally Posted By: big_B

The best since hurricane Marie. The river of a current and the crowd sucked, but the barrels... Based on the half dozen photogs scattered along the beach, and several more in the lineup, some good footage is bound to come out within the next few weeks.


After surfing in the morning, I watched that spot for a while. Some magic happening out there! rockin


Originally Posted By: PPK96754
Don't stir the pot if you don't know the ingredient.

Originally Posted By: HarryLopez
I guess the ocean is always ready to kill someone for free. laugh
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: big_B] #2442342
01/07/16 11:35 PM
01/07/16 11:35 PM
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 629
Santa Barbara
C
CJSB Offline
Nep status
CJSB  Offline
Nep status
*
C

Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 629
Santa Barbara
Originally Posted By: big_B
Santa Barbara received 3.6-4+" of rain during the last 72 hrs, with the mountains pulling in 4.5-4.7". Now this isn't record setting, but it's pretty solid for a 72 hr total.

Now... The surf... Oh the surf... Santa Barbara (well a certain spot in SB) was as epic as it gets. The best since hurricane Marie. The river of a current and the crowd sucked, but the barrels... Based on the half dozen photogs scattered along the beach, and several more in the lineup, some good footage is bound to come out within the next few weeks.



Were you out? I was out shooting photos, but don't post on line from the spot you are referring to...send me your email if you were out and I'll send some over.

Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: CJSB] #2442371
01/08/16 12:16 AM
01/08/16 12:16 AM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
S
strawkins Offline
Gerry Lopez status
strawkins  Offline
Gerry Lopez status
***
S

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,070
Santa Cruz
Nice dudes, really glad to hear that you've been getting some nugs!!! Get it y'all!

Last edited by strawkins; 01/08/16 12:17 AM.
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: CJSB] #2442389
01/08/16 12:53 AM
01/08/16 12:53 AM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
B
big_B Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
big_B  Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
*****
B

Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
I doubt you got any of me, but I would like to see a few of the photos. I was out from about 11:00 to just after 12 (90 min parking), but I only got 4 waves, and only one of them was good (my last one). The river of a current and the crowd got ridiculous. I counted something like 57 heads as I was leaving, but I saw some extremely mind blowing barrels today. I'll PM you with my email.

EDIT: Just to clarify, a "good wave" at spot like this and on day like today means nothing short of a multi-second barrel and a few hacks/turns. I saw who I believe was Dane Reynolds (or his doppelganger) air drop into a 6+ sec barrel from the 2nd flagpole. 4-7+ sec barrels were a common sight today. It wouldn't surprise me if footage comes out during the next few weeks with a couple 9-10 sec barrels.

Last edited by big_B; 01/08/16 04:46 AM.
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2442443
01/08/16 02:47 AM
01/08/16 02:47 AM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
B
big_B Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
big_B  Offline
Legend (inyourownmind)
*****
B

Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 222
Santa Barbara
Another TC forms in the C Pac southwest of Hawaii..... Tropical storm Pali is currently located at 4.9N, 171.2W, with max sustained winds of 45 kt (which are inside the KWGA). The ongoing WWB that contributed to Pali's formation is unlikely to initiate a significant KW (as certain oceanic conditions remain unfavorable for KW development), but a weak-modest KW isn't out of the question. At the very least, this WWB will slow down the El Nino decay process, by suppressing upwelling and promoting downwelling east of the Dateline. In other words, it will help extend the life cycle of this event.

The C PAC Hurricane Center (CPHC) had this to say in their first advisory:

Quote:
THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM..


Link to latest info on Pali from the CPHC: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Pali


Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: strawkins] #2442493
01/08/16 04:45 AM
01/08/16 04:45 AM
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,905
Oceanside,CA
S
Surfdog Offline
Tom Curren status
Surfdog  Offline
Tom Curren status
**
S

Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 14,905
Oceanside,CA




Hmmmm. Still seems to be some question of this El Nino being in the "Super" category among at least a few at the Physical Sciences Division at NOAA......

"Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Nio remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in November-December."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Mark at Stormsurf also mentions the above in his latest update.

So, maybe I was closer in calling this El Nino just under 82/83 and 97/98 than many here thought?


Surf 'em if you got 'em
Re: 2015- 2016 El Nino thread [Re: mayor1] #2442495
01/08/16 04:53 AM
01/08/16 04:53 AM
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 39,706
F
frvcvs Offline
Duke status
frvcvs  Offline
Duke status
**
F

Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 39,706
Surfdog, I admire your tenacity.


"Milk tits rule!" - Bonzer5Fin

"I've been against every Trump/Republican policy implemented and expressed it here." - Caca_Mugrienta

"I'm someone who has spent way more time in the black community than most white people." - Caca_Mugrienta

"Your credential as an ERbb conservative is officially blown." - Squidley

"while it has over 8,000 nerve endings, a clitoris is nowhere near as sensitive as a MAGA snowflake " - StuAzole
Page 148 of 179 1 2 146 147 148 149 150 178 179

Moderated by  Groundswell, Nameless60, r32