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NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds?

Posted By: casa_mugrienta

NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/07/19 02:50 AM

Looking ahead at the wind forecast for my upcoming trip, it's looking like strong (20kt) N/NE winds for much of the latter half of this month on the North Shore.

Does that mean it's pretty much a blowout? Or are there more variations on wind than what's seen in the forecasts? I'd consider cancelling my trip...
Posted By: oneula

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/07/19 10:05 PM

kind of unusual for n/nw winds to last for more than a couple days
I saw that sun/mon its w/nw/n winds.
gonna hit the high 50's in some parts

I love those winds
cold as sht but straight offshores at my home breaks
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 06:32 PM

Oneula--->That 3-4 day forecast looks to bring some cold-for-Hawaii weather, but at that place you took me, I hope you get some good waves!
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 08:20 PM

Powerful winds and giant surf due for the weekend
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/02/07/powerful-winds-giant-surf-due-weekend/


If THIS, is your weekend of travel.

Gusty N / NE trades blowing this AM on Kauai's north shore which is supposed to switch later on today at some time to Northerly, then hard north westerlies through the weekend. With large surf conditions also in the mix, it's going to be a better time at The Fun Factory or Kiddie Land.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 08:47 PM

000
WWHW80 PHFO 080147
SPSHFO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019

HIZ001>028-081500-
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
347 PM HST THU FEB 7 2019

...VERY STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE LOW
WILL SEND A POWERFUL SWELL TOWARD THE ISLANDS THAT WILL IMPACT
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH VERY HIGH SURF.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SURF
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING THAT
COULD LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE, ROAD CLOSURES AND BEACH EROSION.

THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS, BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER RIDGES
AND MOUNTAINTOPS, THEY WILL ALSO ACCELERATE DOWNSLOPE, IMPACTING
HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS.

IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND, BE PREPARED FOR VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS. IF YOUR PLANS INCLUDE MARINE ACTIVITIES, YOU MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING THEM.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 08:49 PM

SURF: Rising to 20 to 30 feet today, 25 to 35 feet Saturday, and 40 to 60 feet Sunday along north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai and Maui. Also, rising to 15 to 20 feet today, 18 to 25 feet Saturday, and 30 to 40 feet Sunday along exposed west facing shores of Oahu and Molokai.
TIMING: Through this weekend.
IMPACTS: Extreme...Expect ocean water surging and sweeping over beaches, coastal benches, lava flows, and roadways, creating the potential for significant damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Coastal evacuations and road closures are possible. Large breaking waves may affect harbor entrances and channels with significant damage possible to docks, piers, ramps, and boats.
Instructions: These dangerous conditions mean that only highly experienced persons should enter the water. Inexperienced persons should remain off beaches and adjacent beachfront areas. Large breaking surf, significant shorebreak, and dangerous currents make entering the water very hazardous. Anyone entering the water could face significant injury or death.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 08:59 PM

^- Yikes!
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 09:02 PM

Wasn't there a recent circus season with lots of NNE and it piled up sand in certain spots and made good right hand runners?
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/08/19 11:00 PM

careful at the bridge near the army camp where the boards blow off.
Posted By: oneula

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/09/19 02:16 AM

wrap!
Posted By: casa_mugrienta

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/09/19 04:39 AM

my travel time is still a little ways off... feb 15-25

I never trust a wind forecast more than 3 days out, but when i see a pattern develop in a long range forecast i begin to get concerned.
Posted By: goingout

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/09/19 09:15 AM

Originally Posted By: casa_mugrienta
my travel time is still a little ways off... feb 15-25

I never trust a wind forecast more than 3 days out, but when i see a pattern develop in a long range forecast i begin to get concerned.



This is a bit tricky situation, NWS has north to northwest to west winds till the end of their 7 day zone forecast, even though the winds are to be lighter on Fri. Feb. 15th at 10mph. +/-

As we all know the wind is the hardest to forecast which could work in your favor if model forecast are wrong about the winds and wind dir.

Would be better if you had one more week of time to let this current system work it's way out.

The long term forecast could change, one has to monitor it day by day. I have seen these west wind events before, one has to hunt down a spot that might be rideable, usually not the north shore though, it don't like west winds.

The paddle out is usually easy and the paddle in is a head down and keep paddling affair.


....I am goingoutside now....storm surf...what fun!
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/09/19 03:34 PM

Not much rain throughout Friday evening, a few quick, light splashes into the early AM hours but the wind blew all night steady, 15 - 20 from the "local gauges" spread out around Kauai's north shore areas that are available to observe. Winds @ 17 mph, Temps 62* / 63* @ 0530 hrs on Saturday morning.

Easy peasy without the rain, but a bit cool for local folks ~



Hourly Forecast for Today, Saturday 02/09

Today 02/09 10% / 0 in
Windy. Cloudy skies will become mostly sunny this afternoon. High around 70F. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph.


Tonight 02/09 70% / 0.09 in
Rain showers along with windy conditions. Low 61F. Winds WNW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Higher wind gusts possible

www.windy.com is a pretty good app
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/10/19 08:01 PM

Sunday AM
sustained winds at the beach in Kalihiwai 15 - 25 MPH / gusts 40 - 53+ MPH
no rain .... just Windy as hell
Hanalei Lifeguards report 40+ foot waves outside the Bay at Kings.
Surf all over the place and crawling up the beaches.
Powerlines down / arching in Princeville & on the way out to the Kilauea Lighthouse
weeeeeeee!

Just in @1019hrs ...
A tree has fallen on a vehicle in the PineTree's parking lot entrapping occupants. Lifeguards on scene reporting no injuries to occupants, only car damage. roflmao
It was howling at PTreee's last night. 58* on the beach, windchill 53* / 54*
Kind of like the ramp up to hurrincane Iniki ~
Posted By: casa_mugrienta

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/10/19 09:26 PM

LONG TERM ANALYSIS (NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND) updated 2/10/19 11:00

NORTH EXPOSURES - Most of next week we’ll see dominant, and medium to large, N to NE swell and continued cool, somewhat unsettled weather. Complex forecast outside 2-3 days as some models have that Kona low drifting NE of Hawaii, then potentially U-turing back toward the islands midweek. Whereas, the crowd pleasing GFS model has the low tracking further into the eastern Pacific.

Thus, definitely some uncertainty with swell/winds but confidence is higher that we'll see a fresh shot of NE swell whipping back to Hawaii Wednesday. This will also come with breezy NE winds for the second half of the week. Thus, conditions (and swell) is looking unfavorable at this time. Lot can change from run-to-run, even day-to-day, but another poor week of surf looks possible for Hawaii. Stay tuned, we’ll refine details over next couple updates."
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/11/19 03:02 PM

Bring a LS spring suit. Those morning sessions are cold.

If the penalties and fees aren't too bad, I would consider going elsewhere.

Nicaragua.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/11/19 07:37 PM

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The AI PineTree is gone, uprooted by gusty sustained winds from a rough storm from the North / northwest. No occupants were injured in the truck or rental jeep.
Posted By: Truth

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/11/19 08:44 PM

Maui on Friday what am I looking at PPK?

Mahalo
Posted By: manbearpig

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/11/19 09:04 PM

Originally Posted By: PPK96754
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[img:center]http://[/img]

The AI PineTree is gone, uprooted by gusty sustained winds from a rough storm from the North / northwest. No occupants were injured in the truck or rental jeep.

You guys should call in an arborist/woodworker with a mill and slab it up, make picnic tables out of it for the beach.

Like so:





Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/11/19 11:27 PM

A Friend of mine is a tree trimmer. He and Billy Hamilton have been locating and cutting trees for surfboards and table tops.
Check out "kellyonkauai" on his Instagram page. He's milling wood!
The County of Kauai will first have to move the Andy tree and the vehicles. Maybe Kelly will look at it.
Posted By: manbearpig

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/12/19 12:24 AM

That’s killer. Would be an awesome way to immortalize the tree and people to enjoy it for many years in Irons memory.
Posted By: oneula

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/12/19 01:29 PM

if that's an iron wood
gonna be hell on the blade
like cutting through stone
Posted By: manbearpig

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/12/19 03:53 PM

Yeah Alaskan Mills like mine you use a special ripping chain but you still have to sharpen every 3-5 slabs. Something that size you'd definitely want a legitimate sawmill, which I bet could handle it no problem. Which is what PPK's friend seems to have.
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/12/19 08:06 PM

Originally Posted By: Truth
Maui on Friday what am I looking at PPK?

Mahalo


Honolulu, HI

Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
Weather.gov > Honolulu, HI > Hawaii > Area Forecast Discussion

Issued: Feb 12, 2019 3:53 AM HST

Synopsis
The northerly winds will be shifting to the north-northeast today then northeast tonight as the surface low lifts out further away from the islands and a strong surface high builds in far to the north of the islands. A wet trade pattern is likely for the islands between tonight and Thursday as a band interact with another cold upper level disturbance. There is a high degree of uncertainty for the upcoming weekend weather, but we are looking at a drier trade wind regime, although the trades will still be breezy.

Discussion
The culprit of yesterday's weather, a strong surface low, is now located some 740 miles NE of Maui, heading NE toward California. A strong high pressure cell of 1036mb, currently far NNW of Kauai, will be moving southeastward in the next 48 hours, then eastward after 48 hours. This will result in the winds shifting to the NNE today, then to the NE tonight, and hold through Friday. A trough is forecast to form some 750 miles NE of Maui over the weekend, thus maintaining the NE trade winds over the weekend. The NE trades will be strengthening through tonight across the smaller islands, then reaching the Big Island Wednesday night. There is some hint of the trades trending slightly lower over the weekend, but that remains to be seen.

While it is pretty much back to normal at the lower elevations, it remains windy at the top of the Big Island summits. The High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Big Island summits through 6 pm HST this afternoon. Currently, speeds are down from earlier in the evening but still estimated in the low end warning range of around 50 mph.

In the way of showers, we currently have an area of scattered showers moving through the islands from the north and northwest. These showers should ease off later this morning. A band of enhanced showers has becoming noticeable on satellite in the past couple of hours, located 350 miles N of Oahu. It is moving south at 20 mph, making the arrival time of early this evening for Kauai, and the rest of the smaller islands overnight tonight, and the Big Island Wednesday morning. Models have this band stalled over the islands through Thursday. As noted, the showers looks enhanced, so locally heavy showers is a good possibility at this time. These showers will be supported by a cold pool of air at the higher levels. So as the upper disturbance drops down on the islands on Wednesday, the freezing level is expected to lower from the current 12k feet to as low as 9k feet Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some wintery weather is expected, especially for the Big Island summits, and may be Haleakala on Maui. I won't rule out a slight chance of a thunderstorm for Maui and the Big Island, but we will see. We will be keeping a close tab on this developing situation.

The weekend forecast will be challenging as well. The ECMWF and GFS differs, with the EC developing a surface low over the island chain between Friday night and Saturday, while the GFS has a surface trough some 700 miles east of the Big Island. We are siding with the GFS at this point, but this subject to change. More to come.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/14/19 06:36 PM

Early AM thunder on Kauai. Expecting rain & possible thundershowers throughout the weekend for the western part of the state. More wet conditions expected moving East to West across the state throughout the weekend. 61* on Kauai's north shore this AM. buurrrr ~

https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2019-O-NEW-KHFO-FA-Y-0014/USCOMP-N0Q-201902141825
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/25/19 09:11 PM

Looks like another round is scheduled for you guys this week.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 02/26/19 06:10 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Looks like another round is scheduled for you guys this week.


Well, it's been cool & clear in the AM hours up here on the north shore of Kauai. Low 60's. Day times have been nice. Not much surf here over the last week. The Eastside, (Kealia, Kapa'a & Wailua have had epic days with glassy surf all day long because of light wind conditions. Folks were on it too. The Eastern shores get on-shore winds most of the time so folks were taking advantage of the glassy conditions.

As far as your predictions, let's hope the winds aren't as brutal as they were a few weeks back. Those match stick Albesia trees were cracking & blowing down with 40 - 50 mph winds with gusts even higher. It was like it was ramping up to another hurricane Iniki.

Picture postcard morning here! Tue 2 / 26

wave2
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 03/08/19 12:51 PM

Did you go on this trip?

Give us an update on where you surfed?
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 03/09/19 11:54 PM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
Did you go on this trip?

Give us an update on where you surfed?


Tavarua? Negative. The schedule didn't work out for me.
Posted By: casa_mugrienta

Re: NS Oahu - strong N/NE winds? - 03/10/19 02:53 PM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
Did you go on this trip?

Give us an update on where you surfed?


Yes, Gas Chambers, OTW, Pupukea
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