Surfer.com

2018 Hurricane Thread

Posted By: ElOgro

2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/03/18 12:17 AM







Backhoe blew a hydraulic line at 50% cleaning the lagoon behind the house



banghead censored

Otherwise we're pretty well prepared.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/03/18 12:20 AM

Alberto pissed a bunch of rain down on us and a fair bit of the rest of the Eastern US. Kick-started the monsoon season with all the moisture to cook up during the day imo.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/03/18 02:20 AM

It's been hot hot hot for a couple of weeks, normal for late May/early June. Rain before mid June, when the sun comes out you can see the steam rising. Miserable hot then.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/04/18 12:39 AM

The east coast and gulf are going to get rocked again.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/04/18 12:54 AM

ground swell incoming and my schedule is wide open.
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/04/18 10:38 PM

Here today... Gone to Cabo hat
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/05/18 12:18 AM



Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/05/18 04:40 AM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
The east coast and gulf are going to get rocked again.


Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/05/18 05:48 PM





South wind, humid, rain this afternoon...
Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/05/18 08:06 PM

That thing could make waves way up into the sea of cortez, como no?

That must be a kick to surf those desolate points way up there that rarely break.
Posted By: surfcheck101

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/05/18 09:37 PM

Originally Posted By: Autoprax
That thing could make waves way up into the sea of cortez, como no?

That must be a kick to surf those desolate points way up there that rarely break.


Sadly some crap winds that will accompany the southeastly swell-if there is any-system 1 appears to have been downgraded.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 12:11 AM





Looking like 5 days of shitshow here.

Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 09:42 AM

Alberto was a dud sojersey-wise.

Come on "B" storm...
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 01:40 PM

Originally Posted By: acnjusa
Alberto was a dud sojersey-wise.

Come on "B" storm...


I only got wet once and seemed to have a gift for it being juuuuuuuuust a hair too sheety to want to surf the rest of the time, but I generally appreciate wind and rain in Florida, especially from May to October.
Posted By: subway

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 02:11 PM

i surfed at home for the first time in ages on Monday afternoon. Me and a buddy had this little sand bar all to ourselves behind my house, some of the most fun I've had on waist high waves in ages. Just enough punch for the short board, lined up, steep east swell bending across the bar
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 11:09 PM

Last night rained a 1/4", power went out everywhere within 25 km of me. But not en la casa Ogro. smile2

Got one on the on deck circle





Sun is out here right now...
Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/06/18 11:22 PM

Those hurricanes don't look good for you because they are too close?

I love hurricane swells.

All punchy.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 12:28 PM

Yes. Too close.





Rain all night, south wind, ...



toilet
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 01:28 PM

^ Looks comfortable though. Cloud and breezy.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 01:52 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
^ Looks comfortable though. Cloud and breezy.


Until the sun comes out. Then hot. And buggy. Not good battery charging conditions.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 03:29 PM

We're due for another hurricane.
All of our recent weather patterens have been from a more southerly/ south westerly direction .... and where Hawaii's hurricanes have come from in the past ....
Preventive measures / maintenance needed on my ipe deck 4x4 / 4x6 posts and footing straps ~ hithead
Posted By: TangTonic

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 03:47 PM

Hey PPK!

How's that Ipe deck treating you? Do you have pt lumber underneath for the joists and posts? How is that holding up if so? The copper treated pt lumber ain't what it used to be when it had all the arsenic in it.

I just put down some Tigerwood floors and they are so beautiful. The Tigerwood decking is considerably cheaper than Ipe with all the same benefits. My biggest concern is putting long life deck boards over pt lumber which will not last as long.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 03:57 PM

Originally Posted By: PPK96754
We're due for another hurricane.
All of our recent weather patterens have been from a more southerly/ south westerly direction .... and where Hawaii's hurricanes have come from in the past ....
Preventive measures / maintenance needed on my ipe deck 4x4 / 4x6 posts and footing straps ~ hithead


I hope you guys don't get them. last year or was it the year before shrug , all the hurricanes went too west out to Hawaii out of So-Cal's swell window.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/08/18 04:20 PM

Originally Posted By: surfcheck101
Originally Posted By: Autoprax
That thing could make waves way up into the sea of cortez, como no?

That must be a kick to surf those desolate points way up there that rarely break.


Sadly some crap winds that will accompany the southeastly swell-if there is any-system 1 appears to have been downgraded.




My friend in Punta Mita says good waves this morning.

This has good direction for San Blas 1 day wonder swell.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/09/18 12:39 PM

Aletta headed for cooler water







Looking like a wet weekend here in Ogrolandia.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/10/18 04:05 AM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Aletta headed for cooler water







Looking like a wet weekend here in Ogrolandia.





Bud looks like he might be an asshole for Baja

Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/10/18 04:17 PM

Picking up steam.



Pretty much straight south of us right now. Should blow by out to sea this afternoon. Gusting SE wind. Humid. Albóndigas for lunch.

wave2
Posted By: afoaf

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 03:18 AM

that is ugly!
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 12:21 PM

Bud well offshore making sloppy surf. Good storm for beach erosion.



Another day in paradise.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 03:59 PM

Uglier

Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 04:13 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Uglier





Ugliest

Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 09:30 PM

Dreamable.

Looks like we're in for more rain here as Buddy heads NW.

Posted By: afoaf

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/11/18 09:42 PM

sheds a tear for your once great lawn....
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 02:27 PM

I hope OT has his sandbags filled

Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 02:29 PM

Wednesday-Thursday looks like a fun time for south side Bahia de Banderas. I bet some waves I've never heard of at all will be crankingtons.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 02:36 PM

I talked to a girl I know that lives in PM, she said the waves have been good for a few days.

It's gonna be junk here for a few more days. River should be breaking out soon.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 02:52 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I talked to a girl I know that lives in PM, she said the waves have been good for a few days.

It's gonna be junk here for a few more days. River should be breaking out soon.


Looking at plane tickets, and I swear, every year there's more board embargoes, and more Aeromexico flights that are operated by Delta. I can't decide if the flight hours are going to suck, or if I'll be spending some quality time getting from DF to the coast. Don't even want to think about how much fun a boardbag in DF might be.
Posted By: Iceman

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 03:20 PM

Heading to Cabo on Thursday for a bachelor party. Should be interesting. If we make it. roflmao drowning
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 03:41 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I talked to a girl I know that lives in PM, she said the waves have been good for a few days.

It's gonna be junk here for a few more days. River should be breaking out soon.


Looking at plane tickets, and I swear, every year there's more board embargoes, and more Aeromexico flights that are operated by Delta. I can't decide if the flight hours are going to suck, or if I'll be spending some quality time getting from DF to the coast. Don't even want to think about how much fun a boardbag in DF might be.


Two words: Alaska.

dancing
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 03:50 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I talked to a girl I know that lives in PM, she said the waves have been good for a few days.

It's gonna be junk here for a few more days. River should be breaking out soon.


Looking at plane tickets, and I swear, every year there's more board embargoes, and more Aeromexico flights that are operated by Delta. I can't decide if the flight hours are going to suck, or if I'll be spending some quality time getting from DF to the coast. Don't even want to think about how much fun a boardbag in DF might be.


Two words: Alaska.

dancing


Are you suggesting Alaska Air? I think I'm going to look into that. If I can bring all my boards and the times are good, probably faster to connect through LA than the DF-Guad-Colima run. I found a few Aeromexico flights with no Delta or Aerolittoral whatnot, but the hours suck.

Or are you suggesting somewhere thousands of miles from Mainland Mex where I might get turned into grizzly turds?

applause2

Heavy early season kegs this am:

Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 05:57 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Wednesday-Thursday looks like a fun time for south side Bahia de Banderas. I bet some waves I've never heard of at all will be crankingtons.


So many spots light up there that aren't even spots with the right hurricane swell.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/12/18 11:22 PM

Overhead peaky a frames this morning.

Speaking of torrential rain, I was back east last week. 6 inches of rain in 4 hours on Sunday.

I've only seen it rain that hard one other time in my life. Again, Delaware. August of 2012. 11 inches of rain in one night.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/13/18 07:20 PM





Northern Oaxaca and southern Guererro rural areas still haven't recovered from storms/earthquakes last year. drowning



#gofundmywavepool beer
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/14/18 07:46 PM

Rainy weekend for us





Wind backed off for a while this morning with some headhigh fat peaks.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/15/18 03:37 PM

We're located under that F in Four.





Costa Chica gonna be drowning
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/17/18 03:03 PM

Good lightning show last night, couple inches of rain. Calm right now but expecting a couple more inches of rain before tomorrow morning.



Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/18/18 01:04 AM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
We're located under that F in Four.



Don't name spots!
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 05:28 PM

Looks like we could be having a mild El Nino this fall/winter.

I know that is supposed to limit Atlantic hurricanes, but what about the East Pacific hurricanes?
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 06:02 PM

I asked that question on the El Niño thread last year but never got an answer.

The sun is finally out here after several cloudy/rainy days.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 06:29 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I asked that question on the El Niño thread last year but never got an answer.

The sun is finally out here after several cloudy/rainy days.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/06/14/el-nino-forecast/703005002/

Quote:
Forecasters say there's a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop during the late summer or early autumn. If it forms by then, it could help suppress the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic during that time.

However, El Niños tend to increase hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which can affect Mexico, the U.S. Southwest and Hawaii.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 07:58 PM

Thanks, Sharkbiscuit.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 08:26 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Thanks, Sharkbiscuit.


Do they do this to people in San Francisco? 15% chance of rain + flood advisory?

Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 08:42 PM

No, nothing like that.

But we do put up Pride flags to remind people about the ginourmous party this weekend.



On second thought, all those extra people visiting for the parade/celebration is kinda like a flood.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/19/18 10:04 PM

What is the cutoff for hurricane swells? Emptier's?
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 12:14 AM

I don't understand your question.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 12:44 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I don't understand your question.


I'm asking where in California the Northern cutoff is for hurricane swell. I mean if it's howling NW winds all June, and they don't face South to the same extent, at some point, it's probably a tiny pulse on a buoy and not much of note on the coast.

Also it appears Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero are all State Dept level 4 YOU WILL DIE11!!!!111 zones.

The safest places with Pacific surf according to them are Baja Norte and Oaxaca.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 01:48 PM

I have no idea. Surfdog? Studog? Any other dogs?

Meh. We have two trained attack dogs. No worries. Also, be good and you're good.

Oaxaca is too close to get good waves from Hurricane swells. Northern Baja was the call for me when I lived in California.
Posted By: littlewave

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 04:53 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: ElOgro
I don't understand your question.


I'm asking where in California the Northern cutoff is for hurricane swell. I mean if it's howling NW winds all June, and they don't face South to the same extent, at some point, it's probably a tiny pulse on a buoy and not much of note on the coast.

Also it appears Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero are all State Dept level 4 YOU WILL DIE11!!!!111 zones.

The safest places with Pacific surf according to them are Baja Norte and Oaxaca.

Point Conception probably.
Posted By: jkb

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 07:19 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
What is the cutoff for hurricane swells? Emptier's?


Alaska
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 07:31 PM

Originally Posted By: jkb
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
What is the cutoff for hurricane swells? Emptier's?


Alaska


Right but they're well exposed to the South, whereas most of the coast past Ranch/Jalama doesn't seem to have their window.
Posted By: jkb

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 07:44 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: jkb
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
What is the cutoff for hurricane swells? Emptier's?


Alaska


Right but they're well exposed to the South, whereas most of the coast past Ranch/Jalama doesn't seem to have their window.


Obviously it depends on the hurricane trajectory and the direction a beach faces, but there are plenty of spots north of Point Conception that can get hurricane swell.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/20/18 07:58 PM

Originally Posted By: jkb
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: jkb
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
What is the cutoff for hurricane swells? Emptier's?


Alaska


Right but they're well exposed to the South, whereas most of the coast past Ranch/Jalama doesn't seem to have their window.


Obviously it depends on the hurricane trajectory and the direction a beach faces, but there are plenty of spots north of Point Conception that can get hurricane swell.


Depends on the swell too.

SPAC swell makes it pretty up there, but shorter period tropical swell has much more significant decay.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/28/18 05:18 PM

something interesting on the forecast behind Emilia

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/28/18 05:51 PM

Oh goody, more rain for us. drowning
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/28/18 08:28 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
something interesting on the forecast behind Emilia

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height


Please get past 120 W.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/28/18 08:29 PM

Mugu bound. Yew!
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 06/30/18 02:24 PM

and....they're....OFF!

nice pulse thurs past in sojersey w/4ft power lines and an evening glass-off from kinda-tropical entity.

the boys needed to feed and did they ever.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/01/18 12:33 PM

Good on ya!

Election Day + ley seca (dry law) + lotsa rain = desmadre a la mexicana





Posted By: SurfFuerte

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/01/18 01:59 PM

we got some north shore swell from that last one that went across...

sorry carribean, but keep em coming!!!

one mans misery is another mans glory.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/01/18 07:01 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Originally Posted By: stu dog
something interesting on the forecast behind Emilia

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height


Please get past 120 W.


Like this?

Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 08:01 PM

Yes......model is holding together...just need to get a few more days.....
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 08:40 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Yes......model is holding together...just need to get a few more days.....


the local news is already hyping it

Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 08:47 PM

Two words. Newport.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 08:53 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Two words. Newport.


200 guys out at Malibu I'm sure. packed parking for miles. Laird will probably be on the news again shooting the pier. 4 guys per wave drowning will try further north and hope for a reef-ish spot to be working.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 09:10 PM

looks legit; i'll miss it here but catch whatever makes its way to kauai's south shore.
Posted By: hanger18

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 09:39 PM

Off to the south shore of Oahu for two weeks the day after the 4th. If any of you are over there and want to surf, hit me up!
Posted By: littlewave

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 09:42 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Yes......model is holding together...just need to get a few more days.....


the local news is already hyping it


Just in time for the holiday... foreheadslap
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/02/18 09:47 PM

Going to be packed to the hills. Ugh. Will definitely have to seek out some more out of the way spots.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/03/18 01:25 PM

Looks like you're gonna get a few more days...

Posted By: SBSteve

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/03/18 02:04 PM

Originally Posted By: r32
Going to be packed to the hills. Ugh. Will definitely have to seek out some more out of the way spots.


Along with 200 of your best friends who are thinking the same thing.
There will be no way to escape the crowds. foreheadslap
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/03/18 02:50 PM

I bet I will....
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/04/18 03:53 AM

Looks like Fabio has peaked late this afternoon straight south of So Cal, after not quite making it to major hurricane status (Cat 3 or higher) as was forecast the last day or 2 by now from NOAA.

Still, a decent size hurricane with an OK path (could be a bit more northerly to get more solid swell). Good and not so good aspects of Fabio have me concerned with the 2x overhead hype seen on some reports.

Good, is that it was a decent size hurricane late yesterday into today, in the So Cal window enough, out from the SSE edge. It peaked this afternoon directly south of So Cal, but will weaken fairly quickly as it goes into cooler waters tomorrow and beyond.

Not so good, is that it's pretty far down there, over 1000 miles from So Cal. Lots of decay distance. It had pretty sizable 12 ft seas radius last night into this morning, but that's dropped off quite a bit now, because the forward speed increased early today (13 kts). It was moving a bit slower yesterday (8kts), which is better for building seas, but not as big a storm then.

All in all, still a decent swell producer for an early season hurricane for So Cal, and only the most south facing exposures will see the best of it. Probably good for overhead sets, but my bet is unlikely to see 2x overhead sets, except maybe at the Wedge. Could be wrong, and produce a more solid swell, but more likely in the 6-8 ft range most exposed spots (maybe 9 ft sets max), and not 8-12 ft as some are hyping.

Will be great, hot, summer conditions most likely. Not sure what the local winds will be doing, but likely on the lighter side if heat is going to climb as forecast.

Get some. wave2
Posted By: Ch-ch-ch-cheeeeeto

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/04/18 06:38 AM

What about NorCal Surfdog? How much extra decay can we expect north of the Golden Gate? is there a per-nautical mile decay formula I can plug in?
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/04/18 05:34 PM

Originally Posted By: Ch-ch-ch-cheeeeeto
What about NorCal Surfdog? How much extra decay can we expect north of the Golden Gate? is there a per-nautical mile decay formula I can plug in?


I'd have to dig up my old Weather Surfer book. It had a pretty coherent swell decay chart. But, just did a quick search. Here's one from Stormsurf.....
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/papers/swell_decay.html

You kind of have to know the max sea state to get a somewhat accurate reading though for the chart above. Seas from hurricanes are steep and close period, because they're generated in such a small fetch, compared to winter type storm fronts and lows. The best you can hope for is a "virtual" fetch, where the storm is traveling towards you, and the fetch over a given sea state is extended and given a chance to grow much larger. When a hurricane moves westerly down off Cabo, we get much less due to little to no virtual fetch aimed our way.

Strongest winds are only 30-60 mils (or more) in any one direction, while tropical storm force winds can expand further out, up to a 200 miles or more depending on size of storm. The NE and SE quadrants are the side that send the swell to So Cal, so their fetch size is most important for our surf needs. All this info is at the NOAA Hurricane Advisory Archive for each storm. Check Forcast Advisory for that detailed info.

But, not sure how much swell you guys north of Santa Cruz will see. It just barely got into the window last night, and it's starting to turn more westerly the last 12 hours. So what and if you guys up there get anything, it'd be lucky to be shoulder/head high at best. My guesstimate at this point.
Posted By: afoaf

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/04/18 06:32 PM

mapache sent me PL pics, where are the pics from your hood, ogro?

he said he surfed a 5'6", but I don't believe anything he says.

I'm hoping that by trashing him publicly here he will show his face....
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/04/18 07:59 PM

rolleyes

-1/7

Having surfed there a thousand times more than him his idea of good waves there and my idea of good waves there differ. He knows better than to try and push that bullshit off on me.

If it was good here I'd have sent you a message to get on the fvckin' plane and bring chocolates, someone would pick you up at the airport.

rolleyes
Posted By: mvsurf

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/05/18 07:29 PM

Everyone has a different outlook and perspective on swells and conditions. In my personal opinion growing up in OC, hurricane swells and south swells in general brought sweepy, closed-out, inconsistent surf to most spots, and really good surf to very few select spots which always hosted far too many rats in the cage. Fast forward 35 years and I find myself in OC during this current swell and low and behold, my initial find is that it is sweepy, closed-out, and inconsistent at most places, and probably pretty good at a few spots, with most likely far too many rats in the cage. And with this one there is a pretty stiff wind to boot!
As for me, I sure do enjoy those small to mid-size combo swells, or a nice West groundswell in Fall with stiff offshores...... Hope someone somewhere is getting some good surf out of this Hurricane; I'm keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow.
Posted By: rts265

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/05/18 07:51 PM

So far a big letdown. If wind is not shit tomorrow I know where I’m checking but not waking up at 4 like I did this morning.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/05/18 07:54 PM

^ - I never expect much from these storms for my neck of the woods and I am not suprised at the lackluster showing.

But hope springs eternal....I was thinking it would pick up on Friday anyway.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 11:39 AM

3 days of good surf. Surfed yesterday in head high plus wedgy bowls with a couple spongers.

Late June and July were good for me last year. Looks like a repeat this year.
Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 02:02 PM

Did you go to the place you normally go?
Posted By: SBSteve

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 02:51 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
^ - I never expect much from these storms for my neck of the woods and I am not suprised at the lackluster showing.

But hope springs eternal....I was thinking it would pick up on Friday anyway.
on

Yup!
Was up in God's country on Friday, all the way up to GP looking for fishies for nothing.
Had the boards with us JIC. NADA.
Cojo and GP/Perk's, flat as a pancake. Lots of other boats looking for swell also.
Bailed and heard it blew big-time after we left around noonish. We got into water up to 72 degrees and jumped in just to cool off, can't believe there wasn't any player's in the area.
Almost feels like an El Nino coming.
For any of you erBBer's in Goleta, hope you didn't have to deal with the fire that night.

C-Ya!
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 05:03 PM

Indeed. The best day for me was the Friday before last. Windswell and SSE groundswell.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 05:14 PM

hoo-ah!
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/08/18 05:26 PM

Originally Posted By: SBSteve
Was up in God's country on Friday, all the way up to GP looking for fishies for nothing.


God seems to have a lot of countries these days. All those church donors finally paying off.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/09/18 05:36 PM

What's up East Coasters





shrug
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/09/18 07:29 PM

Made it back to Jax Beach in time to grovel some feeble ones and wipe off a day's travel.

Was dead tired this morning and slept as late as possible before work. Will have a go in an hour and a half.

The longer it stays still, the better imho.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/15/18 07:49 PM

after a weeklong push from CHRIS we get a ramp-up of BERYL and subsequent surf.
in sojersey at least. so far bove par.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/27/18 01:28 PM

Aug 8 -> onward looking like it might get dicey in MexicOgro. Too early to trust but...

Local short period crap needs to stay in Florida where it belongs and it works and is welcome. No step on south swell.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 07/27/18 02:05 PM

We've been without rain for a while after good early rain in June. This is the part of the year we call "la canicula". Hottest part of the year and humid too. We just had 5 days of long period swell in the 2m plus range but it was washed out with super high tide and mixed shorter period swell. Longshore current from hell too. No fish being caught. Waiting it out. smokin
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/02/18 04:41 PM

Hector heading straight to the Big Island. Who will win. Hurricane vs volcano bomb

Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/03/18 11:37 PM

edge of the models has two potential hurricanes producing SoCal surf by next Friday.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/04/18 12:10 AM

^ - Fujiwhara effect too

Well, maybe, forecast is a ways out.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/04/18 02:19 PM





EPac starting to heat up. We're finally getting some rain...
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/06/18 04:34 PM

Looks like Japan is going to get a lot of rain while if that storm buttonhooks like its predicted to.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/06/18 04:53 PM

Japan has been getting hammered lately, first with the heat wave then with flooding.



Ileana is hugging the coast off of us out to sea. Wind is gusting to 20kts from the south here. TS warning from Tecpan to Lazaro then it looks like it will strengthen as it moves up the coast.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/06/18 06:22 PM

hard to say what we'll get but might be really fun with manageable size and period for the local.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/06/18 06:42 PM

I'm leaving for Pennsylvania on Thursday, so you're all welcome for the epic day of surf on Friday tomato
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/07/18 03:28 AM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Wind is gusting to 20kts from the south here.


Rain late night last night; then cool offshores this morning in Mazatlan. Nice overcast during quite a lot of the day, too. Restaurant down the way has epic winrar shrimp, and I didn't know they had tequila where the worm has fangs, a rattle and a diamond pattern on it. Learning new stuff in new zones.

Overheard some talk about lack of rain up here too. Apparently nobody was planning on paying for water in August; you can see where it's a little burned out among the relative green.
Posted By: surfy1476

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/08/18 12:24 AM

So is John gonna be the best thing since Maria or what?
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/08/18 03:05 PM

No doubt.

Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/08/18 04:03 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
No doubt.





Damn. John turned to be a further dud. loosing strength fast before getting into our swell window. He needs some viagra
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/09/18 09:05 PM

storm surf model went from pumping to dumping.
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/09/18 09:10 PM

What caused it to slow down and lose a lot of energy? How much energy loss we talking?
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/09/18 09:24 PM

Originally Posted By: r32
What caused it to slow down and lose a lot of energy? How much energy loss we talking?


rapid El Nino warming shrug the year before El Nino was when all the hurricanes hit. then the actual year when it was warmer they all went too far east. did we skip over that pre-Nino year benefit for socal?
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/09/18 10:27 PM

1. Cooler water
2. Weak Cat 1 when it entered Socal swell window
3. Social media hype contributed to steady weakening and swell decay
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/09/18 11:15 PM

Small but peaky and fun tomorrow the beachbreaks.

ssw and nw swell showing regardless.
Posted By: surfy1476

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/10/18 12:29 AM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
Small but peaky and fun tomorrow the beachbreaks.

ssw and nw swell showing regardless.


Swellwatch saying 1-3' overhead at standouts that can take the angle.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/10/18 01:29 AM

4-6 foot in Honolulu. Gracias y Hector.
Posted By: SenorSopa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/10/18 04:09 PM

Originally Posted By: GeoPac

3. Social media hype contributed to steady weakening and swell decay


This.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/10/18 06:43 PM

surf early this morning. barely head high and on the fade when i was out. water is still fooking amazing.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/10/18 10:08 PM

tropical storm Debby was small and low profile...way mid-atlantic...yet i think we got something.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/16/18 02:31 PM

Originally Posted By: acnjusa
tropical storm Debby was small and low profile...way mid-atlantic...yet i think we got something.


ERNESTO looking to be the same story.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/20/18 09:24 PM

Surprised our island friends haven't posted this up yet?



For everyones sake there, I hope this track does not pan out.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/21/18 12:51 AM

yup I posted it on the turtle beach thread
this one doesn't look good
its a Cat4 right now
the problem with grazing is that its tends to pull it in as the outer band slow as it hits land causing it to curve towards the part thats slowing down
kind of like how your car will veer toward the flat tire side
Not good but we don't have any control over these things
hopefully its strong enough to punch through without getting pulled toward land
but you never know
the problem with misses is people get complacent
I'm sure all the old farts are prepping like crazy looking at that track
that track brings back bad memories
and this is only the second storm to come our way this year
there's more out there and more to be created
the cyclones hitting asia earlier this year were nasty

Surf should be unreal on the southshore
waikiki was out of control on the last one 94 lifeguard interventions in one day.
maybe its the gods way of making a statement regarding the beachboy plight and tourist safety.
pele already did her thing on the big island to remind us who's in control of the land over there
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/21/18 01:39 AM

This is the Hector path from the last one.



And Lane projection



Wind model for Thursday early afternoon bowdown




Maui's south and west side gonna be lit again. It happened for a few hours when Hector went by, which was farther away out to sea. Some spots from Freight Trains to the upper west side had 20 year conditions from what I heard. I'm taking my Hector data and applying to Lane. dancing
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/21/18 01:54 AM

I have been scoring alot of good waves lately. From one end of the county to the other. I've scored good waves on every hurricane swell this year. The bases have been going the fukk off.
Posted By: Surfdog

i - 08/21/18 04:36 AM

Each successive model of Lane pulls a tighter right turn towards Oahu and Kauai, then a left turn back west just before it comes ashore (about 100 miles south of Oahu/Kauai)

I guess a wide variance of the models forcasting either a new ridge strengthening to the east/southeast of Lane, or strengthening shear in the next few days, makes forcasting the track very difficult after 48 hrs.

I guess we'll know a lot more by Wed afternoon/evening, if the right turn starts happening.

Stay safe guys and gals on those islands.
Posted By: PPK96754

Hurricane - 08/21/18 05:36 AM

Costco & Costco gas was a Zoo today. Everyone prepping up. A crazy lil storm is getting sucked up from the SW right now moving over Kauai and pushing NE. wtf?? Looks like a quick passing thing just before this hurricane moves towards the Island chain.
Deb & I are prepped. General storm stuff. It's a wait and see game now to see if it turns in towards us ..... beer smokin
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 05:51 AM

Saw some models having it turn under BI right for Maui/Molo bawling
Posted By: Racer1

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 06:19 AM

Hector was the best waves I may have ever surfed on the South Shore.
Posted By: youcantbeserious

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 07:36 AM

Iniki still wins for best waves I have ever surfed on Oahu, the day before the storm hit.

This track is making me get chicken skin remembering that. A week after Iniki hit I flew to Kauai to work on a roofing crew. Sobering to see the destruction there.

I'm well prepared and still prepping all day tomorrow.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 08:55 AM

Ah shit. Go look at windy.com now...both forecasts showing it's going to make landfall (GFS saying Maui and ECMWF showing Oahu).
Posted By: Greg Griffin

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 10:47 AM

Looks like we could be in for a wild ride! 🤪💥😳🤯 #Repost @surfsupmaui ・・・ Hurricane Lane forecast loop from windfinder shows Lane possibly targeting Maui and Molokai. Stay tuned and be prepared for heavy rains snd high winds Thursday Friday. Aloha - Hurricane Lane has re-intensified to a Category 4 storm as it marches westward in the Central Pacific and could come dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands this week, bringing torrential rains, strong winds and high surf, forecasters said. At 11 a.m. Monday, Lane was packing sustained winds near 130 mph with higher gusts. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Lane was centered about 580 miles southeast of Hilo — or 785 miles southeast of Honolulu — and moving west at 12 mph.

A post shared by Kai Lenny (@kai_lenny) on

Posted By: youcantbeserious

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 02:44 PM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Ah shit. Go look at windy.com now...both forecasts showing it's going to make landfall (GFS saying Maui and ECMWF showing Oahu).


Wow. Friday gonna be interesting.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 05:30 PM

Originally Posted By: youcantbeserious
Originally Posted By: Racer1
Ah shit. Go look at windy.com now...both forecasts showing it's going to make landfall (GFS saying Maui and ECMWF showing Oahu).


Wow. Friday gonna be interesting.


Be safe Oahu! forecast is it's going to make a direct hit shocked
https://www.windy.com/?2018-08-25-00,21.335,-154.105,7
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 06:39 PM

On a positive note its a small storm that's forecasted to significantly weaken before landfall. Most models have it as cat 1 or 2 if not weaker. If that holds true it wont be anything close to the destruction caused by Iniki. You can expect the media to over hype Lane with dooms day scenarios due to the track its on and its proximity to the Islands but as you guys are aware "talk is cheap!"
Posted By: Racer1

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 07:02 PM

^^^
I thought forecasts were accurate for path but not as accurate on strength?

Water and weather has been very warm here lately.

Went to costco yesterday to get food, batteries and TP/PT. Refused to buy a generator for $500. Have a couple battery packs charged up though. Wasn't too crazy. Cleaned out the gutters this morning. Going to dig out a problem spot in our yard. Gonna pull out my step up.
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 07:08 PM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
^^^
I thought forecasts were accurate for path but not as accurate on strength?

Water and weather has been very warm here lately.

Went to costco yesterday to get food, batteries and TP/PT. Refused to buy a generator for $500. Have a couple battery packs charged up though. Wasn't too crazy. Cleaned out the gutters this morning. Going to dig out a problem spot in our yard. Gonna pull out my step up.




racer,
a littlte tip,
water storage for toilet.for flushing
fill all bathtubs with h2o
trash cans too
also those novels you been meaning to read this summmer

my prep for hurricane complete
airline ticket bought,
bye bye
Posted By: Racer1

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 07:21 PM

Thanks James. I have water delivery service (water cooler), and I was on a trip last month, so I have a back up of 6 x 5gal jugs in my garage. More concerned about my yard flooding.

I was a little kid when Iniki hit and thought it was the funnest thing ever. We're taping the windows!
Posted By: Muscles

Re: Hurricane - 08/21/18 08:31 PM

I'm kind of worried about this one. I've gone through some Hurricanes on the gulf coast and they were not fun.

My house also sits on a street that acts as drainage out to the ocean. If we really do get hit, I'm going to have to board up the house, take my family and dogs to my parents, and then hope for the best.

In the meantime, I have sand bags, pumps, and a generator ready to go to handle a serious storm.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 03:26 AM

media blitz has started
thursday-friday for oahu 50 miles off honolulu
20-25 foot faces on the south
possible feet of rain
wind and storm surge will cause the most damage
with flooding to follow
the place I now work got 12-15 feet of mud
unfortunately I've been designated first on site to assess the damage before others have to come in

dammit
I hate being right about a reset


Quote:
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -
Hawaii doesn't have enough hurricane shelter space to meet the "estimated demand" of the population.
Since 1950, the state's only taken a direct hit three times with Dot, Iwa and Iniki.

Forecasters are warning that Hurricane Lane could made landfall on at least one island or could come "dangerously close" to the state.

Ahead of the storm, emergency management officials are urging residents to be prepared to evacuate — or shelter in place if it's safe.

"We do not have enough shelters for everyone," said Tom Travis, head of Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency, at a news conference Tuesday. "If you're not in a flood zone, most citizens should remain in their homes. If you are in a flood zone, you should actively seek shelters elsewhere."

The state report issued earlier this year said that while Hawaii has a population of about 1.4 million people, there are only 277,376 available shelter spaces.

Here's the island-by-island breakdown:

Oahu: 182,797 shelter spaces
Big Island: 36,539 shelter spaces
Kauai: 17,395 shelter spaces
Maui: 40,645 shelter spaces

"It's obvious there aren't enough shelters," said Brig. Gen. Moses Kaoiwi, after the report was issued. "If you have a home you can shelter in, it's probably better to stay at home."

And while most hurricane shelters are in public schools, emergency officials say some of those buildings might not be strong enough to withstand disaster.

Posted By: Barney808

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 04:57 AM

Man
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I did some shopping at Walmart. I think I was the only one buying water, canned goods. Today, Sam's club was packed. No water, D batteries gone, canned goods flying off the shelf, long gas lines. Can't imagine what tomorrow is going to be like.

Thanks for the idea of filling up trash can containers with water. I've put a couple of cases of bottled water in my freezer to help keep my freezer cool. Cheaper than buying ice. Filled a 5 gal container at the gas station. Your car can be a good power source if you have an inverter.

Gotta start using up all my food in the fridge the next couple of days.
Posted By: unclebraddah

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 09:53 AM

Eh two tings. Da Hurracain stay moving Countah Clock-wise so maybe it bounce off da pressha of da mountains. Bettah dan it moving clockwise and socking in. Already it going mo west some.




Eh Olopops whad up still Cali oa wot? Cuz you get rain braddah! Stay high n dry ah you?


Eh deez tings move fast. Be ova befoa you kno UNODAT!


Posted By: unclebraddah

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 10:23 AM

Posted By: ghostshaper

Re: Hurricane - 08/22/18 12:07 PM

Originally Posted By: GeoPac
On a positive note its a small storm that's forecasted to significantly weaken before landfall. Most models have it as cat 1 or 2 if not weaker. If that holds true it wont be anything close to the destruction caused by Iniki. You can expect the media to over hype Lane with dooms day scenarios due to the track its on and its proximity to the Islands but as you guys are aware "talk is cheap!"


2 hrs ago news reporting cat 5

Good luck, stay safe
Posted By: HarryLopez

Re: Hurricane - 08/22/18 01:09 PM

Stay safe 808ers! Best of luck.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 01:12 PM

Originally Posted By: unclebraddah
Eh two tings. Da Hurracain stay moving Countah Clock-wise so maybe it bounce off da pressha of da mountains. Bettah dan it moving clockwise and socking in. Already it going mo west some.




Eh Olopops whad up still Cali oa wot? Cuz you get rain braddah! Stay high n dry ah you?


Eh deez tings move fast. Be ova befoa you kno UNODAT!




Ho Cuz!

You stay stoked up on da Primo and Spam!
Posted By: stu dog

Re: Hurricane - 08/22/18 04:07 PM

Originally Posted By: ghostshaper
Originally Posted By: GeoPac
On a positive note its a small storm that's forecasted to significantly weaken before landfall. Most models have it as cat 1 or 2 if not weaker. If that holds true it wont be anything close to the destruction caused by Iniki. You can expect the media to over hype Lane with dooms day scenarios due to the track its on and its proximity to the Islands but as you guys are aware "talk is cheap!"


2 hrs ago news reporting cat 5

Good luck, stay safe


track has changed now. staying south of Oahu and looks like Kaui could get hit by the outer band of the storm. the eye is forecasted to stay offshore
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 06:03 PM

Its raining in Honolulu with light winds and some chest high waves are coming in (bigger than the past few days).

My uncle claiming that the shipping channel at Sand Island will be firing.
I really don't want to paddle across a shipping channel.
Posted By: YeahNo

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 06:20 PM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Its raining in Honolulu with light winds and some chest high waves are coming in (bigger than the past few days).

My uncle claiming that the shipping channel at Sand Island will be firing.


Surfline shows Sand Island currently 3-4ft...yet Ala Moana and south is flat-2ft?!?!

Surfline Waikiki Cam
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 06:29 PM

I bet some rare Mysto spots will light up.
Posted By: Truth

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 06:46 PM

wife scheduled to leave Maui at noon tomorrow

what's the chance of that flight leaving?
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 07:04 PM

Originally Posted By: Truth
wife scheduled to leave Maui at noon tomorrow

what's the chance of that flight leaving?



This site is okay for that stuff:
https://flightaware.com/

It has a live radar map too.

Hope your wife makes it home soon and safe
Posted By: Truth

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 07:10 PM

Thanks -
daughter just moved there and there is a hurricane - cheers
Posted By: craigj532

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 07:19 PM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Its raining in Honolulu with light winds and some chest high waves are coming in (bigger than the past few days).

My uncle claiming that the shipping channel at Sand Island will be firing.
I really don't want to paddle across a shipping channel.


My office has a direct view of that wave/channel, but I've never been tempted enough by it to actually paddle out there. It's a pretty good indicator for a bunch of other spots, though.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 08:17 PM

i used to have an 20th floor office off Merchant and Bishop Street with a full view of the south side. I once saw someone towing in waves off the mouth of the harbor as well as waves way outside of keehi lagoon on the outside reefs. Castles should be all time maybe someone can break duke's record since the duke festival is this week.
Outside Hickam the reef runway and the mouth o pearl harbor about a mile out should be firing for tow ins that spot way outside of koolina should be firing as well.
If the rains come as predicted I don;t think anyone will want to be surfing t=in that contaminated chocolate water just like that sewage spill in the ala wai. with the king tides the toilets will be backing up(reverse flush) all over downtown and waikiki There will be sewer geysers all over downtown and the underground electric line will blow just like last time.
Hope everyone has a good generator when the juice goes out..

Our 50+ year old single wall constructed house is a goner if the winds get really bad.
Gotta fill up the 50 gallon water containers I bought for the last big one.
But gonna use tadais and buckets to capture rainwater for the toilet flushing instead of saving tap water.too bad we don't have hurricane shutter here like on the mainland.

Best of luck everyone, makes you realize that all the other crap we deal with here is minor compared to the big stuff.

I don't know how Guam and Saipan can deal with this stuff year after year they probably are laughing at us.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 08:52 PM

Heavy stuff and hard to hear. Glad to hear of so many of you all taking smart precautions.

Praying and sending good vibes to all you 808ers.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 09:13 PM

Originally Posted By: craigj532
Originally Posted By: Racer1
Its raining in Honolulu with light winds and some chest high waves are coming in (bigger than the past few days).

My uncle claiming that the shipping channel at Sand Island will be firing.
I really don't want to paddle across a shipping channel.


My office has a direct view of that wave/channel, but I've never been tempted enough by it to actually paddle out there. It's a pretty good indicator for a bunch of other spots, though.


Man, that's a beautiful view. I'd freakin love to have a few hours and a big long board to paddle around exploring the peaks and riding lil waves!


Is that just trade swell right now? Do those spots get steeper with longer period swell?
Also, what's up with the buoys and people on PWC? Are they lifeguards?
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 09:41 PM

Originally Posted By: Boneroni
Originally Posted By: craigj532
Originally Posted By: Racer1
Its raining in Honolulu with light winds and some chest high waves are coming in (bigger than the past few days).

My uncle claiming that the shipping channel at Sand Island will be firing.
I really don't want to paddle across a shipping channel.


My office has a direct view of that wave/channel, but I've never been tempted enough by it to actually paddle out there. It's a pretty good indicator for a bunch of other spots, though.


Man, that's a beautiful view. I'd freakin love to have a few hours and a big long board to paddle around exploring the peaks and riding lil waves!


Is that just trade swell right now? Do those spots get steeper with longer period swell?
Also, what's up with the buoys and people on PWC? Are they lifeguards?




buoys are for honolulu harbor shipping channel nd just a randon boat, not a PWC to my eye
but is a nice rollie wave but sharky and not poperler with most
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 09:47 PM

That pic is from the 80s btw.

Uncle says he has a board for me. I asked if I need a vest. He laughed. I didn't laugh.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/22/18 11:39 PM

So far, and this could start changing any minute, but Lane seems to be jogging more west than northwest or north with each passing hour of the "predicted" path on the latest charts forcast points. This hurricane is doing the usual "wobbles" in the path, so it's hard to know if a westward "jog" is a "wobble" or a deviation to the projected northwest path that's "supposed" to happen today. An even more north-northwest track is supposed to start tonight.

The longer Lane keeps moving more westerly as it starts turning NW, the further it should stay away from the main islands, though Kauai is the farthest west and could end up getting closer to it. But, if it does keep moving more westerly thru tonight, the islands might just escape a direct or near direct hit. Trying to look at the positives of the very latest movements, but that all could change in the next 8-12 hours.

Stay safe and be on the lookout tonight for any big path swings northerly. Tonight's direction will be key.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 12:06 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
That pic is from the 80s btw.

Uncle says he has a board for me. I asked if I need a vest. He laughed. I didn't laugh.


Me in that situation....
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 01:08 AM

Be prepared. Stay safe 808. Pay attention to first responders. Aloha PPK!
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 03:04 AM

WF Maui ready.

Posted By: craigj532

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 03:36 AM

Not much surf visible from my office at the moment, though I haven't really been watching for sets. Will go by the park after work to check the waves and surf or run depending on the conditions. I expect it will be bombing by the morning, and we'll have to hold on to see what we get as far as weather goes. The light seems weird right now, but that could just be me imagining things.

Most businesses, schools, and government organizations have already shut down for tomorrow and Friday, but I got too much to do to stay home tomorrow.
Posted By: unclebraddah

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 07:05 AM

Ho Maui starting fo get pounded and it still fa away.
Posted By: OneWorldEd

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:59 AM

Man, the GFS and Euro models have pretty different tracks for Lane as of Thursday AM. Pray for the Euro. Welcome to how we've felt every summer on the south east mainland coast for the last four years.
Good luck y'all.
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 02:33 PM

Originally Posted By: OneWorldEd
Man, the GFS and Euro models have pretty different tracks for Lane as of Thursday AM. Pray for the Euro. Welcome to how we've felt every summer on the south east mainland coast for the last four years.
Good luck y'all.



Pretty much.
Get used to terms like "cone of uncertainty"

Posted By: kelly7873

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 03:24 PM


The newest track has Oahu even closer to the edge of the "cone of uncertainty"
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is forecasting a 1% chance of hurricane force winds to hit Honolulu.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 03:41 PM

I'd think the amount of rain in a short period is gonna be more of an issue than the wind. Coconuts fly outta the tree at around 40kts (that's 40kts Mexican so probably 60kts Hawaiian scale).
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 03:55 PM

Is the "dirty side" quadrant the same as the Atlantic storms? If so, Maui not looking so good. Probably going to lose the Lahiana/Olowalu side highway.
Stay safe brothers and sisters.
Posted By: mundus

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 04:08 PM

Just saw a killer righhander from Maui on weather channel, any live reports?
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 04:25 PM

Originally Posted By: mundus
Just saw a killer righhander from Maui on weather channel, any live reports?


saw it too, must have been yesterday....I'll post the video as soon as it finishes loading up
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 04:36 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqV0DVw90Sg
Posted By: Waterlogged05

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 04:45 PM

Oh shit its Mike, miss your killer surf shots!
OG
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 05:05 PM

Originally Posted By: Waterlogged05
Oh shit its Mike, miss your killer surf shots!
OG
Thanks!

My oldest son's name is Laine. My daughter's contribution....funny and wrong at the same time.

Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 05:12 PM

Not sure about the name Laine for a male, but your daughters humor is spot on for this place. Solid post.
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 05:32 PM

Names are subjective....had a bit of a ring to it, Celtic origins, and besides, I'm pretty sure he's never gotten any grief like a 'boy named Sue' kinda crap.
Folks around Santa Cruz who know my son know he doesn't suffer fools.



All things aside, we are holding our Hawaiian friends and family in our thoughts and prayers. Even with all the technology and science we have at our disposal now, people will still be affected and relief needed.
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 05:49 PM

So true, they are subjective, especially different between cultures. Good to see you avoided naming him Sue.

I think this hurricane will skirt the islands and not be a direct hit. Kind of like the girls at a strip club.
Posted By: huryanpost

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 06:04 PM

I hope it skirts right by. Afterwards watch out for loose and falling tree limbs. Look up as your surveying damage. All Hawai’i is in our thoughts.
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 06:31 PM

"I think this hurricane will skirt the islands and not be a direct hit. Kind of like the girls at a strip club" blush2

I just changed a Franklin ... for a hundred singles! dancing

Overcast with light rain showers @ 0828hrs on Kauai's north shore. Perhaps a prelude for tonights or tomorrow crescendo ~
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 07:30 PM

Just got in from my local. Paddled out at dark and it was head high to double overhead on the sets. Surfed for three hours, very fun, got barreled, only regulars out laughing and having fun. Then we all go washed in by 2.5 overhead sets non stop. Back home to regroup and figure out where to surf next.
Posted By: HarryLopez

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 07:56 PM

^^ SCORE! jam_on

Just saw the buoy reading for 51002 while it is in the eye of Lane - 30' foreheadslap
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 08:20 PM

big island and maui got and are getting rain bombed yesterday and today
oahu tonight and kauai friday
we're closing at noon and only essential staff tomorrow
unfortunately we're all essential so we have to come in
last big rain over 12-15 of mud wiped out our outside and underground parking from the canal going into keehi lagoon next to us. hopefully it won't be the case this time but I have to be the first one in to check our work site.
got my manong black rubber yard man boots and if needed I can bring in my standup paddle to paddle from my car to the front door of work

Unfortunately I wasn't been able to prep home as much as i should because of work
people still need to get paid and money still needs to move from a2b to keep everyone happy

photos from the last major flood at my workplace
the water came down from kalihi valley jumped the turn in mapunapuna and went straight into our building
lots of damaged cars and almost one employee died when his car got swepted away while waiting at the light on dillingham to go home. The security guard had to tie a rope to himself and get the guy out of the car and into the building

entrance to the under building parking facility



entrance to building from the garage this is inside the building they said the smell was awful took months for the smell to go away





I'll find out tomorrow am what the same place looks like after Lane hits Oahu
stay dry everyone
Posted By: Muscles

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 08:50 PM

Had to take off today to get prepped. I'm in a single wall home in a flood zone. My street is a drain to the ocean so it's a major concern for me.

I have plywood staged to close up all my old jalouise windows when the time comes. Got a gen ready to go and three 40 gpm pumps ready should they be needed. Also rigged up corrugated drain lines to my down spout that will move all the water from my roof to the street. I was almost flooded once during the storm that destroyed kauai and parts of Hawaii Kai.

Let's hope this doesn't get too bad and it cuts west. Good luck everyone. Godspeed.
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:00 PM

Godspeed my island friends. May your plywood and drainage game be strong.
Posted By: SrPato

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:02 PM

Holy Smokes! shocked Good luck to all of you out there. I seriously hope it does veer West and doesn't steamroll over you.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:04 PM

Originally Posted By: SrPato
Holy Smokes! shocked Good luck to all of you out there. I seriously hope it does veer West and doesn't steamroll over you.


it's taking a much needed turn in the forecast

Posted By: Muscles

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:09 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: SrPato
Holy Smokes! shocked Good luck to all of you out there. I seriously hope it does veer West and doesn't steamroll over you.


it's taking a much needed turn in the forecast

[img]https://scontent-lax3-1.cdninstagram.com...027198976_n.jpg[/img

The guy on the weather channel was saying the shift west is very dependent on the wind sheer actually weakening the system. So far it hasn't weakened.

Guess I'm just nervous after iniki. News and weather swore it was going to past south... Right before it veered north and leveled kauai.
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:34 PM

10am made a final run to town, topped off gas and some more food.

11:30 now and wind getting stronger here northside Maui.

NAM model shows Maui taking the eye tomorrow, we're on the up slope of Haleakela in Haiku at about 1,000 feet up, if the model pans out, we could see 75mph+ sustained winds. thought
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:35 PM

Originally Posted By: Muscles
Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: SrPato
Holy Smokes! shocked Good luck to all of you out there. I seriously hope it does veer West and doesn't steamroll over you.


it's taking a much needed turn in the forecast

[img]https://scontent-lax3-1.cdninstagram.com...027198976_n.jpg[/img

The guy on the weather channel was saying the shift west is very dependent on the wind sheer actually weakening the system. So far it hasn't weakened.

Guess I'm just nervous after iniki. News and weather swore it was going to past south... Right before it veered north and leveled kauai.


I'm skeptical too, when does a Hurricane ever make a 90 degree turn?
Posted By: Colin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:40 PM

Anyone with a surfline account... Waikiki is looking pretty good right now. Wind is slowing. Speed is slowing. Doesn’t look as organized. Maybe I’m just an eternal optimist.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 09:47 PM

hope everyone and their families in the islands stays safe (and scores pumping surf!)
Posted By: sponge

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 10:19 PM

Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 10:21 PM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Originally Posted By: Muscles
Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: SrPato
Holy Smokes! shocked Good luck to all of you out there. I seriously hope it does veer West and doesn't steamroll over you.


it's taking a much needed turn in the forecast

[img]https://scontent-lax3-1.cdninstagram.com...027198976_n.jpg[/img

The guy on the weather channel was saying the shift west is very dependent on the wind sheer actually weakening the system. So far it hasn't weakened.

Guess I'm just nervous after iniki. News and weather swore it was going to past south... Right before it veered north and leveled kauai.


I'm skeptical too, when does a Hurricane ever make a 90 degree turn?


the NOAA guy explained that there's a super strong SW flow in the upper atmosphere that will cut the head off when it can, at that time the eye should dissipate and the storm loses strength to a tropical storrm. Once that happens the strong trades in the lower atmosphere will take over and push the storm immediately westward hence the 90 degree right turn. Allot depends on when and if the shear can decapitate lane.

Never realized that the winds in the upper and lower atmosphere where blowing in opposite directions

Surf's looking good
Makua and his buds were at SC this morning in the monster trucks.
Sucks that they know about it and are there during big souths.
Last time it was makua, billy and a bunch of others just taking over SC
the locals gave up and left
such a different level and type of surfing.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 10:23 PM

Pau hurricane prep 😂 #hurricanelane

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Posted By: keenfish

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 10:58 PM

Originally Posted By: sponge


This could seriously be a KILLER one so everyone stay safe and take all precautions to withstand the storm [note: I support @hnn.guyhagi and the governor 🤙🏼] #OHANA #KOKUA #ALOHA #HurricaneLane #GuyHagi #HNN #HIedition🌴 #voiceover [voiceover by @dr14okada] subscribe on YouTube #dr14okada

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Posted By: youcantbeserious

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 11:08 PM

I'm in your situation Muscles, single wall house (reinforced) in a flood zone, but I have a decent slope and the water usually runs through. Don;t know about 20" of rain though.

I'm all prepared, helping my elderly neighbors get ready.

Glad you are getting some waves Racer1! I would have to drive pretty far to get decent waves, and right now, it ain't worth it.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 11:37 PM

All the warmth seems to be in the central pacific again like 2015 El Nino.

2 more months of this. Hawaii is going to get what the Gulf and Carribean got last year.
Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/23/18 11:58 PM

San Diego has warmest ocean water since early 90's. Something seems to be brewing.
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 12:09 AM

[/quote]

Makua and his buds were at SC this morning in the monster trucks.
Sucks that they know about it and are there during big souths.
Last time it was makua, billy and a bunch of others just taking over SC
the locals gave up and left
such a different level and type of surfing. [/quote]

SC = Slabbing Canoes?
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 12:29 AM

Downgraded to Category 3 and starting to get more of an oblong shape: shearing is happening.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 01:14 AM

Originally Posted By: r32
San Diego has warmest ocean water since early 90's. Something seems to be brewing.


Mostly surface warming from lack of decent winds in the afternoons the last 6 weeks.

Still pretty cool up north and off Pt Conception. SD is in a protected pocket inside the So Cal Bight, and we surface warm up quickly when it gets hot. Go out a few 100 yards and dive down 20-30 feet and it's pretty cold.
Posted By: obslop

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 01:18 AM

Originally Posted By: Surfdog
Originally Posted By: r32
San Diego has warmest ocean water since early 90's. Something seems to be brewing.


Mostly surface warming from lack of decent winds in the afternoons the last 6 weeks.

Still pretty cool up north and off Pt Conception. SD is in a protected pocket inside the So Cal Bight, and we surface warm up quickly when it gets hot. Go out a few 100 yards and dive down 20-30 feet and it's pretty cold.


makes sense; thanks for the insight.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 01:23 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Downgraded to Category 3.


Lane "seems" to moving more NW than north the last few hours. The forcast chart keeps have to nudge the track a bit west, to the point they look to be forcasting a slight NNE jog track in the next 6-12 hours.

We'll see.

Stay safe guys and just maybe you might dodge a bullet.

Edit: Well, just noticed the first more straight north wobble the last satellite shot. Lane pushed west as far as it could, but maybe the long forcast straight north path is just now finally starting. frown2
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 02:20 AM

HNL Mayor describes Lane

[video:youtube]https://youtu.be/nlIA__8l-rw[/video]
Posted By: ghostshaper

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 02:48 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
<blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/BmzjiymgdgZ/?utm_source=ig_embed" data-instgrm-version="9" style=" background:#FFF; border:0; border-radius:3px; box-shadow:0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width:540px; min-width:326px; padding:0; width:99.375%; width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px); width:calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding:8px;"> <div style=" background:#F8F8F8; line-height:0; margin-top:40px; padding:50.0% 0; text-align:center; width:100%;"> <div style=" background:url(data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACwAAAAsCAMAAAApWqozAAAABGdBTUEAALGPC/xhBQAAAAFzUkdCAK7OHOkAAAAMUExURczMzPf399fX1+bm5mzY9AMAAADiSURBVDjLvZXbEsMgCES5/P8/t9FuRVCRmU73JWlzosgSIIZURCjo/ad+EQJJB4Hv8BFt+IDpQoCx1wjOSBFhh2XssxEIYn3ulI/6MNReE07UIWJEv8UEOWDS88LY97kqyTliJKKtuYBbruAyVh5wOHiXmpi5we58Ek028czwyuQdLKPG1Bkb4NnM+VeAnfHqn1k4+GPT6uGQcvu2h2OVuIf/gWUFyy8OWEpdyZSa3aVCqpVoVvzZZ2VTnn2wU8qzVjDDetO90GSy9mVLqtgYSy231MxrY6I2gGqjrTY0L8fxCxfCBbhWrsYYAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC); display:block; height:44px; margin:0 auto -44px; position:relative; top:-22px; width:44px;"></div></div> <p style=" margin:8px 0 0 0; padding:0 4px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BmzjiymgdgZ/?utm_source=ig_embed" style=" color:#000; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none; word-wrap:break-word;" target="_blank">Pau hurricane prep &#128514; #hurricanelane</a></p> <p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;">A post shared by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/waahia/?utm_source=ig_embed" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px;" target="_blank"> Wa‘ahia Clothing</a> (@waahia) on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2018-08-23T03:01:04+00:00">Aug 22, 2018 at 8:01pm PDT</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async defer src="//www.instagram.com/embed.js"></script>


roflmao

Just came back to the mainland before the hurricanes. My grandma stopped eating after seeing the great grandkids one last time. She died last week. My mom is still on Oahu. Hoping it weakens for all of you guys ovah there.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 08:00 AM

Sorry to hear that Ghost. Lots of Aloha to your family.

Coconut wireless is buzzing that NOAA is "low-confidence" on the Westward turn and the 11pm update might freak some people out.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 02:55 PM

currently at work now but the winds are going to be an issue for most of oahu especially with the coming rain
driving in this morning , my little borrowed fiesta was getting tossed around quite a bit on H1 can't even imagine those with higher trucks etc etc
wondering and worried about my 50+yr old single wall home with tents covering my 2+ dozen boards while I sit in this concrete bombproof structure


best of luck everyone
stay safe l
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 03:08 PM

Downed power lines in Lahaina, big fire and big winds with no rain. Over 100 homes evacuated 1am. Shitshow going on right now.
Posted By: CJSB

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 03:19 PM

^^ That reminds me of waking up during the mudslides in Montectio. A gas main blew up, starting a massive fire which consumed 3-4 houses a couple of blocks from me. During that time, it was dumping rain and the ground was shaking due to the boulders coming down the mtns...

What a nightmare.
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 05:47 PM

From @dahui.hawaii. Crazy sh!t. Stay safe everyone

View this post on Instagram

#BigIslandLiving right now Regrann from @dahui.hawaii . #herecomestherainagain #hilorain#hurricanelane#soccerfield#wailukuriver#kaumana#hilotown#bayfront#808stateofmind

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Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 06:42 PM

still 12-18 hours before lane hits oahu storm slowing down which will increase the rain damage
hilo side got hammered and maui has both a hurricane and fire hazard with 50+mph winds
the newspaper just published this about the eefcts of the alawai canal over flowing its banks into waikiki and honolulu
remember waikiki used to be a swamp back in the day.

Lots of flights in to maui and honolulu being cancelled lots of interesting effects to the hotel industry with cutoff i=of the tourist spigot also folks scheduled to use those incoming flights to leave honolulu and maui may have their outcound flights cancelled as well.





Quote:
As Hurricane Lane approaches Oahu, there are no safeguards in place if the Ala Wai Canal tops its banks and causes major flooding in Waikiki and the surrounding areas.

The Army Corps of Engineers and state Department of Land and Natural Resources have been working on a plan to mitigate flooding in the event of a major storm since 2001. In July, Congress appropriated $345 million toward that effort, but work hasn’t begun.

Asked whether state officials were monitoring the canal as Hurricane Lane fast approaches, or had a plan in place in the event of a flood, DLNR spokesman Dan Dennison said that the only active measure involved clearing debris from the state-controlled waterway.

DLNR’s Division of Boating and Ocean Recreation has instructed its contractor H.E. Johnson to clean debris from a trap at the bridge on Ala Moana Boulevard as soon as possible after the storm passes, he said. The trap is in place to limit upstream debris entering the canal from flowing into the harbor and ocean.

Army Corps officials couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday. But the corps has warned for years that a major storm, or so-called 100-year flood, could cause major damage to Waikiki, knocking out the state’s major economic engine for an indefinite period of time and putting life and property at risk.

A major flood could damage 3,000 structures and cost more than $1 billion in repairs, according to corps estimates. It’s not clear how significant a threat Hurricane Lane poses to the canal, but its approach from the south is particularly worrisome.


watch out southshore guys lots of crap will be going into your beaks this weekend from the ala wai, pearl harbor and honolulu harbor. chocolate ocean coming soon
Posted By: LelandCuz

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 06:49 PM

Originally Posted By: Kaser1
Downed power lines in Lahaina, big fire and big winds with no rain. Over 100 homes evacuated 1am. Shitshow going on right now.

That's across the highway from my neighborhood. I'm out of town but my housemate called at 2am saying cops were telling them to leave. He went up north and we're just waiting for the rain to come.
Posted By: Kaser1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 07:02 PM

2nd fire just erupted Kaanapali. shocked2

Pali closed from Maalaea to Lahaina both ways. West side cut off, unless you go back side.

Current radar, Lane not even really here yet. Moving slooow at 5mph to the north.
Posted By: Truth

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 07:16 PM

Originally Posted By: Kaser1
Downed power lines in Lahaina, big fire and big winds with no rain. Over 100 homes evacuated 1am. Shitshow going on right now.


daughter staying in that neighborhood but they left in the afternoon on their own to the Westin - she is sending me pics of her riding out the hurricane in a two bedroom suite - said is has is real smokey
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 07:19 PM

sucks when a bunch of people you don't know show up at your house
SC right in front of where our families lived from the 1930'-1990's when we got kicked out by the japanese company
emerick, kimo kaihou (dave Ps glasser), joey and some locals and lots northshore bigshots and outsders taking over my home spot yesterday Good to see my elementary classmate Kimo still ripping in his 60's on his malolo
i saw a shot of shibats, but I don't see bacalso, roadclock, isaac or the little chicken fighter


[video:youtube]https://youtu.be/nW-MoHUPyQg[/video]

Posted By: r32

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 07:26 PM

FYI, the shorted URLs for youtube don't work with the [ video ] tags. has to be the full standard URL from youtube. Or you can just copy/paste the embed code and select [ using HTML and UBBCode ] from the drop-down list at bottom of post window, before you submit post.

Those waves looked very fun.

Posted By: PPK96754

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 07:29 PM

Light rain showers through the night with a few heavy, quick down pours around 6:00 AM. Overcast with Tradewinds @ 5-10 with gusts to 17 mph out of the East. Surf 2 -4 on the North. 4 - 6 on the East side. Missed the Lifeguard report for the S & W sides.
Not much going on for Kauai's north shore for Aloha Friday.
#Lane is moving at a snails pace of 4 mph somewhat towards Kauai.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 08:07 PM

Originally Posted By: r32
FYI, the shorted URLs for youtube don't work with the [ video ] tags. has to be the full standard URL from youtube. Or you can just copy/paste the embed code and select [ using HTML and UBBCode ] from the drop-down list at bottom of post window, before you submit post.

Those waves looked very fun.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nW-MoHUPyQg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


grew up living, swimming and surfering that spot from the early 60's. KImo taught me t surf when I was in 5th and 6th grade before then we couldn't afford surfboards so we paipo'd or body surfed the inside. Where all those cars are parked used to be our backyard. We had it pretty much to ourselves with our friends for a decades. We used to surf that break in our 4 man canoe and a dingy row boat going over the falls just for fun. I never surfed front side until I got to surf elsewhere. If someone caused trouble in the lineup our uncles would drive out in an aluminum dingy or boston whaler and chase you out of the water. Lots of hammerheads and big manta rays in that area so we'd hang a 10' shark cuaght in our nets up on a pole where people would paddle out from the public park to remind them why the name of the break was waht it was. Ever since they built the reef runway and after hurricane Iwa the reef got destroyed used to barrel top to bottom before then. All gone now, only memories but good ones. During the winter there's rights from big west wraps just like rincon or malibu but makaha would have to be unrideable. Same with towm on the souths town needs to be over 10' before this place lights up
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 08:25 PM

Surfed courts with my brother in law and my friend. Just the three of us from dark till 8am. So fun. 2-4 foot SE walls. Barrels and turns.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 11:22 PM

Is this the spot you mentioned near Waimanoloa Gulch? Where they do the tow-ins when it gets big enough?

Edit:
Ah, no it isn't.....reread it all and turned my brain on.

Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/24/18 11:37 PM

2' of rain ain't gonna do any good for this years pakalolo harvest.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 12:00 AM

Does Hawaii still manage to grow that MJ that 'bled' red when you cut it while it was still alive (or am I remember things incorrectly)?

I remember some of the more thuggish highschoolers in the 70s talking about it....but this was 1970s Oregon so who knows what they were really talking about.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 12:54 AM

Down to Category 1
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 02:52 AM

Down to a Tropical Storm
Posted By: the janitor

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 02:54 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Down to Category 1 Hawaiian


Fixed hat
Posted By: ratfink

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 02:57 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Down to a Tropical Storm


While good news, a slow moving tropical storm can be worse. Check TS Allison 2003 Houston
Posted By: youcantbeserious

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 03:47 AM

Originally Posted By: ratfink
Originally Posted By: Racer1
Down to a Tropical Storm


While good news, a slow moving tropical storm can be worse. Check TS Allison 2003 Houston


Yeah ratfink, I was just thinking that. I'm glad my garage won't be blowing away, but I'm going to fill up a few more sand bags.

The storm is moving so slow, we keep going back to the beach. Went and surfed Kahana, bodysurfed by my house, then just went and surfed Vals. My son went mauka to a mudslide zone with a bunch of his friends. No one on the road, it's like 30 years ago when it still only took 15 minutes to get to Sunset.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 04:31 AM

Originally Posted By: youcantbeserious
No one on the road, it's like 30 years ago .


Honolulu without traffic is a different Universe.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 04:41 AM

watch out for the flooding
what we see in hilo is not over an all that is coming to oahu and kauai
they predict the rain event to last through early next week
just started raining pretty big drops in Ewa Beach
gonna stay up all night to be sure there's no back up coming into the house
those is or near flood zones get ready
get ready kauai
out of control fire near the kahe point power astation that powers most of oahu
if the transmission lines go down expect to be without power for a while
they really need the rain on the westsides of maui and oahu
time to stay out of the soon to be pilute and hauna chocolate water
Posted By: HarryLopez

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 05:33 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Originally Posted By: youcantbeserious
No one on the road, it's like 30 years ago .


Honolulu without traffic is a different Universe.


Was just talking to someone about Hanauma Bay, and how I remember going there with my parents on weekends, parking and walking down the hill, having less than 20 people on the beach until about 9-10am. Mid-late 70's. Fck that was awesome.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 05:44 PM

Howzit 808? drowning
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 06:14 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
Howzit 808? drowning


it still there,
a weak T.S.
RANFALL IS STILL A POSSIBLE oops fat finger on caps lock diaster.

even the weather service is wondering why no big surf/
here maui was only one place was a reverse malaeaa
Posted By: Colin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 06:53 PM

Non event.

Edit : non even for Oahu. The big island is indeed catching cracks. I apologize for my insensitivity.
Posted By: youcantbeserious

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 06:57 PM

So far, it's just a windy, rainy day like a bunch of other windy, rainy days, except everything is boarded up including my windows. But let's face it, in 2011, my house flooded with over a foot of water from one little rain cell that dropped 13" in three hours. There's thousands of those types of cells floating around Oahu right now.

Big Island is catching cracks, I feel for everybody from Hilo to Hamakua.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 07:24 PM

Looks like something else possibly forming where Lane started:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/?epac

60% chance of formation in the next 5 days.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 09:23 PM

Maybe the solution to Honolulu and North Shore traffic is keep Oahu under constant Hurricane Watch? shrug wave2
Posted By: PPK96754

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/25/18 11:06 PM

.... nada .... nutt'in to report
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/26/18 12:37 AM

next
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/26/18 03:11 AM

the super high mountains on the big island squeezed most of the cloud moisture on poor hilo side
they've been through allot this year

maui got some heavy rains and major fire from sparking lines in the wind
same thing happened by the kahe power plant
it kahe went down oahu would have been screwed
so weird seeing a major brushfire fire in the middle of a hurricane

definitely a wake up call to cleanup around my house and get rid all the excess stuff like boards i've never used or rarely use. Its nice to have modern two story houses and big fruit trees surrounding you house to act as a wind breaks but so good to have 20' long tents attached to the roof just to cover all your crap. Normally out here we need the shade since it never rains. but in these events living in the desert make you realize how exposed you are to the wind. We have excellent drainage as it goes right in to the coral 2' below us and then into the ocean or that big pond in ocean pointe they dredged for us.

say a thank you to makani tonight for his wind shear
things have definitely changed to have the shear sit so close to the islands versus way down south where it used to take care of business.
We have gotten complacent and spoiled over the years on oahu and are overdue for what hilo, maui and kauai have had to endure over the years, And this incident will only make it worse.

I predict the return line at costco to be bigger than the check line next week which will confirm the idiocy of our general community who grab everything in a crisis leaving nothing for others and then try and return it all to get their money back. One's investment in their preparedness kit should be that, an investment not panic hoarding. People have more than enough time to prepare with these "drills" but the majority never do. We only learn when we actually suffer the consequences.

Our kupuna would be ashamed of what we've become.
Posted By: Leaverite

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/26/18 05:00 AM

Heard this was going to be a soft year.

Big sandstorms from the african continent.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/27/18 09:06 AM

Originally Posted By: oneula
Originally Posted By: r32
FYI, the shorted URLs for youtube don't work with the [ video ] tags. has to be the full standard URL from youtube. Or you can just copy/paste the embed code and select [ using HTML and UBBCode ] from the drop-down list at bottom of post window, before you submit post.

Those waves looked very fun.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nW-MoHUPyQg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


grew up living, swimming and surfering that spot from the early 60's. KImo taught me t surf when I was in 5th and 6th grade before then we couldn't afford surfboards so we paipo'd or body surfed the inside. Where all those cars are parked used to be our backyard. We had it pretty much to ourselves with our friends for a decades. We used to surf that break in our 4 man canoe and a dingy row boat going over the falls just for fun. I never surfed front side until I got to surf elsewhere. If someone caused trouble in the lineup our uncles would drive out in an aluminum dingy or boston whaler and chase you out of the water. Lots of hammerheads and big manta rays in that area so we'd hang a 10' shark cuaght in our nets up on a pole where people would paddle out from the public park to remind them why the name of the break was waht it was. Ever since they built the reef runway and after hurricane Iwa the reef got destroyed used to barrel top to bottom before then. All gone now, only memories but good ones. During the winter there's rights from big west wraps just like rincon or malibu but makaha would have to be unrideable. Same with towm on the souths town needs to be over 10' before this place lights up


Looks like all the videos (on Youtube and Instagram) of SC were taken down....
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/28/18 04:52 AM

Originally Posted By: Racer1
Originally Posted By: oneula
Originally Posted By: r32
FYI, the shorted URLs for youtube don't work with the [ video ] tags. has to be the full standard URL from youtube. Or you can just copy/paste the embed code and select [ using HTML and UBBCode ] from the drop-down list at bottom of post window, before you submit post.

Those waves looked very fun.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nW-MoHUPyQg" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


grew up living, swimming and surfering that spot from the early 60's. KImo taught me t surf when I was in 5th and 6th grade before then we couldn't afford surfboards so we paipo'd or body surfed the inside. Where all those cars are parked used to be our backyard. We had it pretty much to ourselves with our friends for a decades. We used to surf that break in our 4 man canoe and a dingy row boat going over the falls just for fun. I never surfed front side until I got to surf elsewhere. If someone caused trouble in the lineup our uncles would drive out in an aluminum dingy or boston whaler and chase you out of the water. Lots of hammerheads and big manta rays in that area so we'd hang a 10' shark cuaght in our nets up on a pole where people would paddle out from the public park to remind them why the name of the break was waht it was. Ever since they built the reef runway and after hurricane Iwa the reef got destroyed used to barrel top to bottom before then. All gone now, only memories but good ones. During the winter there's rights from big west wraps just like rincon or malibu but makaha would have to be unrideable. Same with towm on the souths town needs to be over 10' before this place lights up


Looks like all the videos (on Youtube and Instagram) of SC were taken down....


yup
word must have gotten back to dan
some of the best footage i have seen
but i have way better in person
changed my avatar to the original EBSC from the 60'-70's
most were from ewa beach road by lots
sc was a different crew
as you can tell
you don't want to mess with the kids/grandkids of those guys in that photo
they don't mess around
many were founders of the puna/koa club

Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/30/18 07:57 PM

Toppus.

Looks like Cape Verde season getting started, plus maybe some windswell this weekend if that lump-o-crap can track North.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/30/18 08:42 PM

The 5 day central Pacific forecast is interesting.

And poor Japan looks like it is going to get another whack to the ghoulies in 7.

But forecasts that far out are not cast in stone....
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 08/30/18 09:13 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
The 5 day central Pacific forecast is interesting.


both of them are going to go directly west. just like 2015 when El Nino was in full effect. all the hurricanes went too west
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/08/18 01:46 AM

just finished taking everything down last weekend from Lane
Now they say at work that sometime the middel of next week Olivia looks like a direct hit to Maui and Oahu from the north
get ready folks

new dual fuel generator should arrive monday
switching to propane from gas
easier to store afterwards plus we can run a stove from the same fuel
got to pickup several 20lb cans tomorrow
looked ll weekend for tarps and all the shelves were still empty

https://youtu.be/cH-lQ_NFYeA
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/08/18 10:54 AM

target painted on NC/SC border.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/09/18 09:45 PM

Bombs away! drowning

Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 11:17 AM

too much all at once.

and Hatteras is going to get walloped.
Posted By: HatterasGlass

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 12:42 PM

.....storms that start with the letter "F" have never been good to SENC.

And the monster has been sleeping for 19 years - since Floyd in 1999 (just a Cat 2) that I recall vividly making life pretty miserable for a long while.

Alot of new folks have arrived since who have never lied one.
Beware.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 07:31 PM

turn out to sea.
please.
Posted By: WarrenC

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 07:51 PM

not looking good for the Carolinas... unfortunately...
have many friends in both SC and NC... everybody is getting their kids in order and basically getting out for a few days

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bniw4N1B1ME/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=ttivjzwvr4gn
Posted By: shitbird

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 08:31 PM

Jesus, the consistency of those spaghetti models is ridiculous. Things can change but they all seem to be in agreement. Anyone watching Levi Cowan's tropical tidbit updates?
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/10/18 11:58 PM

Coincidentally, in DC/Maryland right now for a wedding this past weekend. Looks like it's headed right up in to NC/SC/Virginia. Lots of news coverage. Looks like a lot of rain for Maryland.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/11/18 01:43 AM

For a good time head to the Virginia side of the Eastern Shore.
Posted By: oneula

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/11/18 03:41 AM

wow didn't realize till tonight's news
September 11, 1992 which is tomorrow
was when Iniki hit Kauai
and 9 years later was the WTC hurricane
tomorrow will be 26 years since Iniki

Florence probably will put a dampen on the annual NYC ceremonies tomorrow
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/11/18 10:57 PM

Lots of activity on the Atl/Crb side



Gnarly





drowning
Posted By: 92122

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/12/18 12:09 AM

Olivia set to go directly through the Hawaiian islands tomorrow...

Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/12/18 04:38 PM

Originally Posted By: shitbird
Jesus, the consistency of those spaghetti models is ridiculous. Things can change but they all seem to be in agreement. Anyone watching Levi Cowan's tropical tidbit updates?


Saw that it might take a turn to the SE just prior to landfall, skirting the coastline of SC for a while.

Yeesh, that would suck mightily.
Posted By: Surfdog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/12/18 08:28 PM

I've been checking the discussions the last 2 days, and noticed that every 12 hours or so, the track ticks another 5 degrees northwest.

The long rage path still seems to show a more WNW path, and they push it a bit more westerly each time to end up with same southern NC landfall.

My concern, is that it takes a more NW path and make landfall closer to the Hatteras area.

But, they've been getting pretty good about tracking in the 24-48 hr range, so maybe these are just NW wobbles in the track?
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/13/18 08:43 PM

Hey, how fared Maui?

The tropical storm shouldn't have been that bad, but Florence news is overwhelming other storm related news, so I was wondering if there was an eye on the ground report available here?
Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/13/18 08:44 PM

Weather c-blocking
Posted By: subway

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/13/18 08:58 PM

got some big windswept OH++ walls out in MTK this morning. breezy side shore made it a challenge but got a few memorable ones

Stay safe Carolinians. Luckily the wind seems to be dropping fast, but the rain will be nuts
Posted By: frvcvs

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/13/18 09:29 PM

Live feed...

Posted By: YeahNo

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/13/18 09:39 PM

We flew out of Oahu yesterday afternoon during the "heart" of the tropical storm. It was raining on and off. Airport timelines were not effected at the time of our departure.
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/21/18 03:02 PM

wtf is going on out there?

Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/21/18 07:30 PM

Potential for a busy upcoming week in the EPAC tropics. Both European and GFS models in good agreement of major storms forming off Mainland Mex and tracking NW up the Baja. Fingers crossed Rosa & Sergio light up the first week of fall with a memorable one two punch of solid tropical swell.



Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/21/18 07:58 PM

Dear God,

I know I don't pray enough
and I'm generally a kinda shitty person
and it's pretty selfish to ask for something so petty in a prayer
.
.
.
.

but still, God.
if you make this happen I'll never do anything bad ever again.
like, seriously this time

your humble servant,
Frampy Pancake
hat
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/22/18 08:27 AM

August crashed and burned. September worse.

Hope October is the new September.
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/22/18 11:48 AM

Originally Posted By: acnjusa
August crashed and burned. September worse.

not in my neighborhood.

was going thru some old pics last night and found this one from your neighborhood. no doubt you will recognize this spot...

Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/22/18 03:59 PM

nice shot.

too many car robberies for me to surf there anymore.

i was kinda measuring up the months according to their potential.....which....was not realized.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/22/18 05:27 PM

EPac quiet.

Best day of surf in months...
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/24/18 03:13 AM

Originally Posted By: oneula

definitely a wake up call to cleanup around my house and get rid all the excess stuff like boards i've never used or rarely use.....


this. the big takeaway from Florence, for me is simplify: get rid of stuff. not just excess boards - excess everything....the accumulated excess gear, gadgets, bits, pieces, paper, scraps, clothes, things, stuff, goods, junk, trappings, paraphernalia, effects etc of modern life.

under mandatory evac, with a Cat 4 on the way and a realistic possibility that the house might not be there when you came back, there's a very short list of what you really need to take with you, everything else is just stuff.



Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/24/18 06:32 PM

Originally Posted By: ElOgro
EPac quiet.

Best day of surf in months...


West Pacific gonna deliver another whack.
Posted By: Racer1

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/24/18 07:10 PM

Windy European Model showing another Hurricane headed towards Hawaii...
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/24/18 08:59 PM

Originally Posted By: sussle
Originally Posted By: oneula

definitely a wake up call to cleanup around my house and get rid all the excess stuff like boards i've never used or rarely use.....


this. the big takeaway from Florence, for me is simplify: get rid of stuff. not just excess boards - excess everything....the accumulated excess gear, gadgets, bits, pieces, paper, scraps, clothes, things, stuff, goods, junk, trappings, paraphernalia, effects etc of modern life.


I've been trying to pare down for the last decade.....now down to a one-car family, but now have 4 bikes.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/24/18 09:20 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
Originally Posted By: ElOgro
EPac quiet.

Best day of surf in months...


West Pacific gonna deliver another whack.



two are on the 180hr model. but neither look that impressive when checking Windy. Wait and see as always
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/25/18 03:44 PM

Looking much further west and much sooner than 180 hrs.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/25/18 04:47 PM

that formed fast

Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/25/18 04:51 PM

K, now everyone shut up.

Please don't jinx this cussing
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/25/18 04:56 PM

Originally Posted By: Boneroni
K, now everyone shut up.

Please don't jinx this cussing


there's potentially one behind it too
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/25/18 05:16 PM

Model consensus all but guarantees solid tropical swell from Rosa for Southern California at this point. Now if the Sergio track unfolds as forecasted? Oh boy are we in for something special! Possibly rivaling the Marie swell. C'mon Super Sergio lets make this a fall to remember!
Posted By: 000

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/26/18 01:59 PM

i expect bad winds for the latest overhyped swell
Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/26/18 03:09 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Boneroni
K, now everyone shut up.

Please don't jinx this cussing


there's potentially one behind it too


See?

You said something, and now it's completely gone from the models tomato
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/26/18 04:11 PM

Originally Posted By: Boneroni
Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Boneroni
K, now everyone shut up.

Please don't jinx this cussing


there's potentially one behind it too


See?

You said something, and now it's completely gone from the models tomato


take a breath...........

https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-02-18,23.524,-114.258,5

but watch out Baja! Rosa is coming in hot!
https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-02-00,23.524,-114.258,5
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 03:28 AM

Mugu is going to be insane.
Posted By: keenfish

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 03:58 AM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
Mugu is going to be insane.


Let's run up there on Monday pal.
Posted By: OneWorldEd

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 12:59 PM

East Coast and Caribbean are due for a long run of swell from that weird storm Leslie out in the central Atlantic. Look at Windy.com. It's just gonna sit out there for days and days.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 01:16 PM

Originally Posted By: OneWorldEd
East Coast and Caribbean are due for a long run of swell from that weird storm Leslie out in the central Atlantic. Look at Windy.com. It's just gonna sit out there for days and days.


cheers wave2 jam_on

Hope you did okay through Florence!
Posted By: OneWorldEd

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 02:35 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: OneWorldEd
East Coast and Caribbean are due for a long run of swell from that weird storm Leslie out in the central Atlantic. Look at Windy.com. It's just gonna sit out there for days and days.


cheers wave2 jam_on

Hope you did okay through Florence!


Charleston got lucky as hell. I've been covering news and hurricane for NYT during past week. The level of suffering in NC and SC is pretty much like nothing I've ever seen.
Posted By: Autoprax

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 03:00 PM

My thoughts are prayers have been with you.

Actually, just my thoughts.

Way to make through the storm!
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 03:54 PM



Interesting track.

For the end of September we have had less than 10% of rain in a normal year.
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 04:00 PM

I find the predicted nearly stationary spinner in the North Atlantic somewhat interesting too....time to head to the NE coast of some islands somewhere



By the way, what is up with the Mediterranean Sea? Can't say I've noticed such tight rotation in storms there before...will it get to hurricane strength? And if so, what was the last time this happened?

Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 09:11 PM

Originally Posted By: OneWorldEd
East Coast and Caribbean are due for a long run of swell from that weird storm Leslie out in the central Atlantic. Look at Windy.com. It's just gonna sit out there for days and days.
ah, that's just great. we get to sit on the beach and watch it pump. nobody dares go into the water here in SE NC, at the moment.

Posted By: TECHNOBUTT

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 09:17 PM

i heard there's going to be some water quality testing done this weekend?

i'm going to try to get my hands on some fecal coliform tests this week
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/27/18 09:52 PM

Rosa goes Beast Mode fight Approaching Cat 4 rockin Now we await the turn to the North
Posted By: James -Bummer Jim-Devlin

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/28/18 03:49 AM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof
I find the predicted nearly stationary spinner in the North Atlantic somewhat interesting too....time to head to the NE coast of some islands somewhere



By the way, what is up with the Mediterranean Sea? Can't say I've noticed such tight rotation in storms there before...will it get to hurricane strength? And if so, what was the last time this happened?



only about 1-2 "Medicanes" occur per year



https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/27/world/medicane-mediterranean-hurricane-europe-wxc/index.html
Posted By: surfy1476

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/30/18 10:54 PM

Rosa pretty weak so far. TOH in the AM still?
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 09/30/18 11:23 PM

Originally Posted By: TECHNOBUTT
i heard there's going to be some water quality testing done this weekend?

i'm going to try to get my hands on some fecal coliform tests this week
so the NC Marine Fisheries guys say the water is ok...but the Coastal Federation guys say it's still bad. it certainly looks funky....think i'll wait until i see some other people out. there should be some decent surf midweek, and surely there will be those who will give it a go. shouldn't be too hard to find some test subjects amongst the locals,
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/01/18 01:00 AM

Originally Posted By: surfy1476
Rosa pretty weak so far. TOH in the AM still?


So far a no show.
Everyone in the lineup frothing. Only one wave sets. Just paddled in rather than deal with the paddle battles. Hope tomorrow is different
Posted By: surfy1476

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/01/18 03:05 PM

What a dud. Swellwatch called for 12-18' faces this AM at spots that like 175-180.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/01/18 04:46 PM

Originally Posted By: surfy1476
What a dud. Swellwatch called for 12-18' faces this AM at spots that like 175-180.


this morning made up for yesterday's dud. was fun out there shaka
Posted By: Kento

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/01/18 05:44 PM

Originally Posted By: surfy1476
What a dud. Swellwatch called for 12-18' faces this AM at spots that like 175-180.


Good to know that site sucks. Will put a reverse bookmark on it. Funny that's where the 12-18' forecast came from considering the buoys were 3' at 14 secs at best. roflmao
Posted By: bigsurfer67

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/01/18 10:04 PM

Rosa a no show at my spot in the OC as well...finally a little bit of inconsistent surf but raw and blown out with mostly just a south to north current going on.
Posted By: NDG80

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 12:32 AM

looked like Newport Point went off again.

Was pretty fun in NLA this a.m. Didnt quite feel like a hurricane swell though.
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 01:33 AM

Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.
Posted By: subway

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 01:26 PM

whatever it is churning around out in the north central Atlantic continues to deliver

Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 01:50 PM

Originally Posted By: subway
whatever it is churning around out in the north central Atlantic continues to deliver



Yeah nowhere near that pretty here but it'll push a shortboard and plenty of room to move.

Send us a cold front subway; it's Augtober down here. If it wasn't blown out with passing showers it'd be hot as balls still.
Posted By: Kento

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 09:07 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.



Is it too soon to start the hype for Sergio? monkey

Sizable hurricane but very far away. 2-4' and inconsistent is my call.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 09:30 PM

Originally Posted By: Kento
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.



Is it too soon to start the hype for Sergio? monkey

Sizable hurricane but very far away. 2-4' and inconsistent is my call.


Serigo's moving west. too west for So-Cal shrug
Posted By: Kento

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 10:04 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Kento
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.



Is it too soon to start the hype for Sergio? monkey

Sizable hurricane but very far away. 2-4' and inconsistent is my call.


Serigo's moving west. too west for So-Cal shrug


It's taking a NW track, which is good, along with some powerful winds, but it's only at 12N latitude so far. That's way South from where it needs to be. 20-25N would be far better.
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 10:05 PM

Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Kento
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.



Is it too soon to start the hype for Sergio? monkey

Sizable hurricane but very far away. 2-4' and inconsistent is my call.


Serigo's moving west. too west for So-Cal shrug


European model has it doubling back towards Socal early next week while re-strengthening. Sergio may have caught wind of the erBB surf day and is deadset on crashing the party!
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/02/18 11:10 PM

Originally Posted By: GeoPac
Originally Posted By: stu dog
Originally Posted By: Kento
Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Jinxed yourselves so bad that you're reduced to overhyped hurricane swells that are good at one spot and don't show half the time.

Califlorida.



Is it too soon to start the hype for Sergio? monkey

Sizable hurricane but very far away. 2-4' and inconsistent is my call.


Serigo's moving west. too west for So-Cal shrug


European model has it doubling back towards Socal early next week while re-strengthening. Sergio may have caught wind of the erBB surf day and is deadset on crashing the party!


sure hope those Euro's are right. maybe Wednesday it comes back
https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-10-12,33.032,-118.839,4
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/03/18 08:52 PM

Yemen got nailed last year, now looks like Oman (maybe) gets the chop by next week.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/04/18 12:30 PM

Hurricane Leslie delivered......5ft clean s-turns......10/3/18......HOOOOO-AH!
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/04/18 05:15 PM

SE NC water is apparently clean enough and Leslie delivering here as well.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/06/18 07:02 PM

Sojersey is being bathed in swell thanks to hurricand Leslie.
The duracell bunny of wave producers.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/06/18 08:53 PM

Stocked to see my EC brethren scoring!
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/06/18 09:09 PM

Originally Posted By: StinkinHippie
Stocked to see my EC brethren scoring!


Puto hah

Sergio made some westish backswell here. Short period with super high tide, not the best conditions for rivermouth points but there were finally a few runners today. Looks like some longer period late next week. Hour and a half of light show thunder storm at la casa and over the ocean last night, heavy rain here but didn’t rain 10 clicks inland.
Posted By: StinkinHippie

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/06/18 09:46 PM

I surfed a right point yesterday with 2 guys out. Today the same. Overhead. Firing. Empty. Warm.
Posted By: stu dog

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/07/18 12:49 AM

Pretty damn fun today. Missed yesterday as worked until 8pm. Waited for the tide to drop. Headed to the top of NLA. Crowd was light. Lots of peaks. Kind of had a windswell feel to it. 4’ to 6’. Once the tide dropped started to line up pretty darn good. Break I’ve avoided in the summer for the last 2 years. Was plesantly surprised. We haven’t an October like this in a long time!
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/09/18 04:48 PM

Hey Fuller

Surf’s up!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/091442.shtml

drowning
Posted By: Mr Doof

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/09/18 05:47 PM

In 2005, sweetie-pie and I are on St. George Island (SW of Tallahassee) for a wedding of a high school friend.

His wife-to-be's folks live on the island for 9 months of the year in a 4 story home on stilts in the gated section of the island (note to self: tomorrow, start up an aluminum foundry 40 years ago)

Prior to the festivities, I am chatting with the bride's mom and dad about the hurricane years:

"Well, this is why the ground floor is storage only...stuff I don't mind getting soaked with sea water. Storms happen, the sea come up fast, goes inland, then everyone comes back out of the next few days."

"What about your cars?"

"We move the cars inland to high ground then take the good car from there."

"Any concern with looting?"

"More worried about dead bodies stuck in the shrubbery when the water recedes. Once we had a pretty nice fishing boat down in the reeds next to our dock. Registry was still good, and we're able to get it back to the right people in a week or two."

Anyway, this storm should shove 10+ feet of Gulf into Apalachicola Bay and so all their bicycles will be rusted and so will their nice BBQ, if they are not blasted into said bay.

Good luck, Pan-handle of Florida, and parts inland.

PS
Will it reform if it makes it back to the ocean near Norfolk?
Posted By: Sharkbiscuit

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/09/18 06:23 PM

Originally Posted By: Mr Doof

PS
Will it reform if it makes it back to the ocean near Norfolk?


It is forecast to strengthen some but the Westerlies are forecast to make it haul ass once it gets that far North.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/09/18 08:05 PM

Originally Posted By: Sharkbiscuit
Originally Posted By: Mr Doof

PS
Will it reform if it makes it back to the ocean near Norfolk?


It is forecast to strengthen some but the Westerlies are forecast to make it haul ass once it gets that far North.


nice.
Posted By: huryanpost

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/10/18 02:00 AM

Surfs up
Posted By: sussle

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/10/18 10:39 AM

the Atlantic storms are acting goofy this year, meandering about and looping around. this is Leslie, which gave us swell all last week and is now apparently going back to Africa. probably there is historical precedent for this but i can't recall seeing this before.

Posted By: WarrenC

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/10/18 12:45 PM

panhandle is gonna see some serious devastation (unfortunately)
Posted By: mundus

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/10/18 12:51 PM

Good luck for everyone on the panhandle, saw some good surf on TV from the area, guess nobody can get to it.
Posted By: OneWorldEd

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/10/18 01:22 PM

Bigly in Pensacola. Hope Mr. Spencer is not one of the dudes walking the beach on the cam.
http://pensacolasurf.com
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/11/18 06:57 AM

We should fete Hurricane Leslie at a banquet.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/14/18 05:53 AM

death and destruction aside (EEEKS!) hurricane Michael did us right.

Goldilocks kinda surf....not too big; not too small...just right.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/14/18 06:08 PM

WTF



The “X” is straight offshore from us.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/22/18 07:54 PM



Willa a monster, Vicente a squirter. Stay safe my friends in Punta Mita/San Blas!

We’re looking for a big dose of rain here in Northern Guerrero.
Posted By: ElOgro

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/23/18 01:13 PM

Hijo de la chingada que pinche aguacero

drowning drowning
Posted By: Barracuda

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/23/18 06:32 PM

Originally Posted By: sussle
the Atlantic storms are acting goofy this year, meandering about and looping around. this is Leslie, which gave us swell all last week and is now apparently going back to Africa. probably there is historical precedent for this but i can't recall seeing this before.


Yeah apparently ever since we started recording the weather there was never a hurricane hitting portugal. The north had some destruction and rough weather, luckly here in the south we scored some really nice waves.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/23/18 06:35 PM

Legendary Leslie.
I wont soon forget.
Posted By: acnjusa

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/30/18 04:06 AM

Hurricane Oscar obliged us on the anniversary date of Sandy.
Just clean surf; no mayhem. well behaved.
Posted By: subway

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/30/18 02:17 PM

Sunday was tough to miss (still rehabbing my MCL)

Looked like one of those flawless fall Jersey mission days
Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/30/18 05:23 PM

Surgical Strike down to Cabo for Willa. Surfed a left point/reef that mimicked Padang Padang, with only 6 guys out. Score of the year. Willa threw one hell of a party!





Posted By: GeoPac

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/30/18 05:24 PM



Posted By: Boneroni

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 10/30/18 05:34 PM

Holy crap geopac! What a score! Post of the year material right there applause2
Posted By: JJJJS

Re: 2018 Hurricane Thread - 11/07/18 08:05 PM

Big swell in North Atlantic right now
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